There is a tendency to believe, even among investment professionals, the once the market starts to go up the “good times” have arrived and the market is going to go up forever. Conversely, the is also a tendency to believe, even among investment professionals, that once the market starts to go down, or correct, “the sky is falling” and the market will continue fall ad infinity. Like members of a devoted political parties the “up” crowd, or “bulls” feel comfortable when the market is going up and they are in control. I think it is also important to note that since or economy is almost universally expanding because our population is increasing, which in turn causes of GDP to increase. But our markets tend to over expand, and the over expansion is followed by corresponding contraction…and this contraction is when the “sky is falling crowd.” the “bears” have their day in the sun. Many investors tend to be either bulls or bears, and strongly identify with the market either going up or the market going down.

Of course, a trader doesn’t affiliate himself with any “political investing party.” Bulls, bears….these are wonderful basketball and football teams but are of little consequence for a trader. We are happy to go long or short at the appropriate times without conscience or investing preference. Like most traders chaotic investment philosophy goes to where the money is…long or short and where the money is.

I started out as a stock and bond man….but concentrate entirely on index futures contracts now. Of course, my trainers and the media in general portrayed the futures and options markets as “voo-doo” markets and not to be taken seriously. No, I was trained to believe that the only investing occurred on the NYSE and NASDAQ. (and the NASDAQ was barely respectable back then) I did trade some TED Spreads (Treasury-Eurodollar) but nothing like the scalping style I employ now.

The reason for my conversion is much the same as the reasons other traders….we have nano-second access to any market through home computers, and as home computers have proliferated so has the number of firms that cater to home traders or small office traders. While I hate to admit it, my investing career has taken me all the way back to Quotron.

My early investing career was very much influenced by the writings of Benjamin Graham, and Graham and Dodds writings were very much the gold standard by which other authors were judged. Value investing, as was Grahams preference, along with detailed study of balance sheets and cash flow statements were the rage, along with neighborhood investment clubs. The world has certainly changed.