Archive for October, 2008

Another strange day in paradise

By , 30 October, 2008, No Comment

Decision Bar chart with entry points YMZ8 10-30-08

We received some of the worst economic updates today since I have been trading….and the market went up. I guess some days it’s just better to trade and not think about it too much.

here we go again

By , 28 October, 2008, No Comment
I traded the YM today as it was a little more coherent than the ES contract and have included a DecisionBar chart so that you could see some of the trades I made. Obviously, it was a fairly easy afternoon, as the market made one short move and that started up for a long run. I added contracts as the rally continued, though you might notice that there was a relative lack of volume for this rally, which is cause for concern.

Of course, the investing world was agog about the possibility of a rate cut forthcoming tomorrow, and reacted very positively to that prospect. I don’t see a rate cut as any sort of solution to the economic problems we are enduring, but the prospect was enough to send the traders into a frenzy. Of course, we still have to sift through a sea of terrible earnings reports, and the credit issues that started this chaos are far from resolved. But, I suppose any news is good news in this environment, and the market lost it’s head in delirium. Personally, I find it hard to believe that any investor would take a long position in the near future….the economic outlook is somewhat less than rosy, and that is being quite kind.

I would refer you to an excellent Blog, Calculated Risk, for some insightful information on the credit situation as that editorial group is often right on the money.

On the other hand, if the market wants to dole out free money, I was happy to ride the tide upwards.

Ah…this is truer than you think….

By , 26 October, 2008, No Comment

Used with permission from cartoonist John Ambrosavage at Ambrotoons.com

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By , 26 October, 2008, No Comment

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I’ts been a long week

By , 26 October, 2008, No Comment
Here are this weeks charts, I was in a car accident and had to take some time off….I plan to post the decisionbar charts tomorrow so that you can see the trades I took.

I suppose it goes without saying that this was one of the most volatile weeks in the history of the market, and the coming week promises no relief. Tread lightly

How I place stops

By , 18 October, 2008, No Comment

Many traders have their own theory on how to place stops on their market orders, or whatever kind of order they place. With the recent market volatility this has been a challenging job to accomplish, because the intrabar turbulence has many a stop to be triggered and money lost. I still encourage, no……I insist that traders place their stops in a manner that gives them adequate protection. My stop ranges have been anywhere from 12 to 20 ticks, depending upon the nature of the market that day.

But I want to address those who trade without stops, and indicate what a terrible risk they are taking because a sudden spike, of which we have had no shortage in the recent month, my signal the end of your trading career. Stops are an important and essential part of any trading strategy to keep me from encountering catastrophic losses.

I also move my stops when a trade is in progross….let’s assume that I have made a good trade and am in the money and I have initially positioned my stop at 12 ticks…once I am 1.5 points into the money, I manually move my stop up to 4 ticks…once I have reached two points, my stops are at my market entry points, and if I let the trade run I continue moving my stops upward to protect my gain. Remember this…..NEVER LET A WINNING TRADE BECOME A LOSING TRADE…and stops are a great way to do this.

You might also use a trailing stop strategy, where once you reach a certain point in profit the stopo moves automatically according to a preset you put in before the trdeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee gooes in. Myself, I am much more comfortable moving the stops manually, which may be the remnant of the “old school” way of doing thing, but I feel much more comfortable placing my stops this way.

At last, a little bit of normalacy…..

By , 18 October, 2008, No Comment

Click Image to enlarge
ESZ8 10-17-08

While the market was volatile yesterday, it moved in more normal patterms than normal. It actually seemed like I was trading again.

Despite a plethora of bad news this week, today’s chart shows the market zig zagging along in a very tradeable pattern. You might also note that I have begun to post Multi=Charts/DecisionBar charts to show you some of the entry and exit points tht were available throughout the the day. As you can see there were plenty of long and short breakouts, and short failures that allowed for a profitable trading session, and an enjoyable one, too.

As usual, I will not even begin to comment on the dreadful spate of news that has plagued the financial markets, only to say that in all my years trading I have never seen such a mess. I am a reasonably non political fellow, or at least I won’t burden you with my political views on this blog, but I think I would be safe in saying that we have not seen anywhere near the worst downward moves in the market yet. For an excellent review of economic news I prefer to read the blog Calculated Risk to ascertain important economic insight and data. I am a trader, not an economist, like the guys over at Calculated Risk…the blog is just excellent and I highly recommend reading it.

maybe someone can make sense of this mess

By , 16 October, 2008, No Comment


Click on image to enlarge
ESZ8 12-16-08

We’re down, we’re up….the market has been reduced to trading on the tiniest bit of news, whether it is good or bad.

The good news is that inflation seems to be in check.

The bad news is that most of the economy is,more or less, flat on it’s ass…manufacturing numbers are terrible, consumer spending numbers are terrible, the banking system has been very slow to loosen up, and the outlook for housing is somewhat less than rosy….so we went up 400 pts today. Go figure.

As traders, we don’t really care if the market goes up or down, but it might be nice if there were at least so semblance of order in the process…I wouldn’t expect any soon.

I had a great day, and have been trading exclusively with DecisionBar, with great results, it has made me a much better trader, and kept me out of several lousy trade set ups…I can’t recommend it highly enough.. 14 points today on 2 contracts.

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