Archive for April, 2009

are we talking about higher gas prices again?

By , 6 April, 2009, No Comment

Gasoline Prices Creep Upward Along With Demand

By ANA CAMPOY

Gasoline prices have been relatively steady in the past month, but a jump in oil prices and tightening gas supplies could lead to higher prices at the pump heading into the summer driving season.

U.S. efforts to stimulate the economy fueled expectations that a recovery might materialize sooner than anticipated, lifting oil-future prices earlier this week above $53 a barrel — a level not seen since November.

Despite a growing glut of crude-oil supplies highlighted in a government energy report Wednesday, crude prices retreated only $1.21 to $52.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That is still 18% higher than at the beginning of the month. Reflecting weak demand, crude inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels to 356.6 million barrels last week, the highest in more than a decade, according to the Department of Energy report.

Gasoline futures dropped 0.76 cent to $1.4950 a gallon.

Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell by 1.1 million barrels to 214.6 million barrels from the previous week, as refiners continued to ratchet back production in response to lackluster demand for the fuel. But there are signs demand is perking up, which could push prices up again. Last week, gasoline demand rose by a four-week average of 0.7%, according to Wednesday’s federal report.

Analysts expect gasoline consumption to increase more in coming months. With gas prices well below $3 a gallon, Geoff Sundstrom, spokesman for auto club AAA, said, “The automobile vacation is going to be even more popular this summer than it has been in recent years.”

In the past week, gasoline prices have risen almost seven cents to a national average of $1.986 a regular gallon, according to AAA. But it is very unlikely they will rise anywhere near last year’s record-high levels, because gasoline demand still remains relatively feeble. And if supplies get too tight, there is plenty of refining capacity in the U.S. and abroad that could quickly ramp up production, said Jacques Rousseau, analyst with Back Bay Research.

The AAA is expecting an average of between $2 and $2.50 a gallon, Mr. Sundstrom said.

Comparing recessions with Doug Short

By , 3 April, 2009, No Comment

Click on image for larger view

Some Unemployment perspective….

By , 3 April, 2009, No Comment

by CalculatedRisk on 4/03/2009 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline sharply in March (-663,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, with almost two-thirds (3.3 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 5 months. In March, job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.

Employment Measures and Recessions Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 663,000 in March. January job losses were revised to
741,000. The economy has lost almost 3.3 million jobs over the last 5 months, and over 5 million jobs during the 15 consecutive months of job losses.

The unemployment rate rose to 8.5 percent; the highest level since 1983.

Year over year employment is strongly negative (there were 4.8 million fewer Americans employed in Mar 2009 than in Mar 2008). This is another extremely weak employment report … more soon.

Signs the Armegeddon is upon us…

By , 3 April, 2009, No Comment

Well, we are at record levels of unemployment since the 1930′s, with more than 5 million Americans standing in the unemployment lines. Earnings are at an all time low, and the government has borrowed more money than I can fathom.

Did I mention the stock market has been on a four week upswing? Life is just too nutty….

From Financial Armageddon, I thought this was funny….

By , 1 April, 2009, No Comment

Financial Armageddon

The Beast Screams to Be Fed

Posted: 01 Apr 2009 04:43 PM PDT

It’s easy to blame the current push for higher taxes on the Democrats. However, the disastrous state of public finances means the effort is truly a bipartisan affair. Indeed, given the damage caused during the past two years by the bursting housing bubble and the accompanying economic collapse, the writing was on the wall even before last November’s elections brought the red team into power in Washington and elsewhere. I am on record as having said as much, when I told TV host Larry “the greatest story never told” Kudlow on air more than a year ago that it didn’t matter who got elected — taxes were headed higher.

I’ve also warned in my books and at Financial Armageddon

that, eventually, there will be increasingly strident citizen revolts against efforts to feed the insatiable government beast. In the meanwhile, though, I expect desperate politicians will dream up all sorts of creative measures designed to keep the money flowing into government coffers as the downturn continues to take its toll on traditional revenue-generating mechanisms. In “Cities and States Plan Strange New Taxes on Pretty Much Everything,”

Fox News offers us a brief sample of what we can expect to see lots more of in the period ahead.

The government is having a hard time making do with the meager trillions you’re throwing their way, so they’re pressing some controversial new customs to buy their way out. Here’s a look at some of the more egregious new taxes you’re sure to be seeing soon.

Behold, America: the taxman cometh.

Even as taxpayers are struggling to make ends meet in a crumbling, tumbling economy, your friendly neighborhood (and state and federal) government is having a hard time making do with the meager trillions you’re throwing its way, so it’s relying on an old maxim:

If it exists, it can be taxed.

New York’s resident grinch, Gov. David Paterson, tried suggesting a kind of omnibus fun-busting budget that would have taxed New Yorkers for skiing, golfing, camping, being fat, being skinny, going to the movies, going to plays, wearing clothing, going to strip clubs and having more than six fingers or toes. The governor, who is up for re-election next year, came to his senses about three weeks ago and renounced the budget, perhaps when an adviser noted that political contributions aren’t tax-deductible.

Things haven’t been all downhill for the taxman, though: some surprising new tariffs, like supersizing the tax on AIG bonuses, have had a measure of popular support, but most are being opposed hand and foot over wallet.

Cigarette taxes are jumping so much on April 1 that it will soon be cheaper to run a tobacco farm than to buy a pack of cigarettes. So as you stockpile your smokes for the coming decade, here’s a look at some of the more egregious new taxes you’ll be seeing soon.

IT’S ELECTRIC
Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty has proposed a slew of new taxes (for taxes are no longer solitary creatures like wolves, but herd together in dangerous slews) to meet his city’s massive deficit. His first target: budget-busting street lights, which Washingtonians will now fund with an extra $51 monthly tax. Bottom line: if you expect to be kept safe from monsters lurking in the District night, it’s really going to cost you.

DO THE MASH
Kentucky is called the state of the “unbridled spirit,” but when a new 6 percent tax hike on booze goes into effect April 1, that slogan might have to change. Lawmakers are going to be taxing their very own Kentucky bourbon, which is, along with Col. Sanders and the Bowie knife, among the greatest contributions of the Bluegrass State. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.

OLD PROFESSION, NEW FEE
Nevada’s hidebound lawmakers are finally going after prostitution in their state. Well, not really … but one Las Vegas Democrat has proposed a $5 surcharge on all, ummm, transactions, which he says will boost the state’s economy by $2 million. While you finish doing the math on how many rendezvous there are annually in Nevada (answer: a lot), it’s worth noting that most bordellos charge a minimum of about $100 to $200 for their services, and don’t object much to the suggested tax. Five bucks is a paltry thing next to the prices some people are willing to pay in the Silver State.

GET IN AND STAY OUT
Nevada has also raised its so-called bed tax, which isn’t nearly as fun as it sounds. Its 3 percent hike was levied in March on travelers spending the night in Nevada hotels, most of whom end up in Las Vegas. Nevada isn’t alone: nearly half of states have a hotel tax meant to punish suckers foolish enough to leave their own homes, but as more sign on there’s danger of an interstate tax war. Once everyone has imposed a stiff nightly rate, who will be safe from harm?

STRIPPED BARE
Texas led the way in 2007 by levying a $5 tax on patrons of gentlemen’s clubs, exotic dance parlors and all other places where women disrobe for money. Now Florida and New York are among states considering their own “pole taxes,” which have already netted the Lone Stars $11.2 million in revenues. The money was supposed to be used to fund sexual assault services (and no, the irony is not lost on anyone). Only hitch: a Texas judge ruled the tax an unconstitutional infringement of free speech. Yes, stripping is free speech. Let freedom ring.

CASH CROP
Billions of dollars in the hole, California’s legislature is considering a blunt proposal from a San Francisco assemblyman: taxing legalized marijuana sales at $50 an ounce, a move its sponsor thinks could net the state about $1 billion a year. Oregon is considering a similar measure, taxing medical marijuana at nearly $100 an ounce. The taxes could really help excite the states’ economies, even if everything else gets sluggish for a while.

RUNNING ON EMPTY
If you live in America and your name starts with a letter, you’re probably going to be seeing higher gas taxes soon. States and municipalities from Massachusetts to Michigan are planning gas hikes to help rev up their stalling fiscal engines. So any of you planning to travel across state lines to stock up on cigarettes before April 1 had better get on the road fast, before new highway taxes, raised tolls, speeding cameras and apocalyptic moths bar your way for good.

PORNOGRAPHY!
A Washington state representative was beaten back in February when he suggested taxing pornographic materials to save programs that serve the poor and disabled. A noble gesture indeed, which would have taxed adult magazines, adult photographs, adult videos, adult phone services and a few things even adults wouldn’t want to talk about. The flesh lobby (and the rep’s fellow Democrats in the state house) stopped the bill in its tracks, a rare win for anti-tax forces this season. The ACLU opposed the bill, too, arguing that taxing pornography is a tax on free speech. So what happens if you put it on mute?

More from Calculated Risk…it’s not a pretty scenario….

By , 1 April, 2009, No Comment

by CalculatedRisk on 3/31/2009 11:00:00 AM

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. All 50 states are showing declining activity.

This is the new definition of “Red states”.

This is what a widespread recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

On a one month basis, activity decreased in all 50 states in February. Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for February.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2009. The indexes decreased in all 50 states both for the month and for the past three months (one-month and three-month diffusion indexes of -100).

Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

All states showed declining activity. A widespread recession …

From Calculated Risk, Case-Shiller home pricing

By , 1 April, 2009, No Comment

S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for January this morning. This includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). Note: This is not the quarterly national house price index.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 30.2% from the peak, and off 2.5% in January.

The Composite 20 index is off 29.1% from the peak, and off 2.8% in January.

Prices are still falling and will probably decline for some time.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 is off 19.4% over the last year.

The Composite 20 is off 19.0% over the last year.

These are the worst year-over-year price declines for the Composite indices since the housing bubble burst started.

The following graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines In Phoenix, house prices have declined more almost 50% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Charlotte and Dallas are off about 11% from the peak. Prices have declined by double digits everywhere.

Prices fell at least 1% in all Case-Shiller cities in January, with Phoenix off 5.5% for the month alone. Chicago and Minneapolis were off close to 5% for the month.

I’ll have more on house prices including a comparison to the stress test scenarios.

It was an interesting day…with many good trading ops

By , 1 April, 2009, No Comment

ESM9 Click on image for large view

It was an interesting day, as traders sorted through a variety of scenarios and data in their trading. Of course, there is no clear consensus or anything like a trend emerging, which makes it a traders market. The initial move was very difficult to trade into as the market moved with haste to the down side, but by 1 pm there was a tradable move to the upside which resulted in the best trade of the day. The end of the session descended into chaos and I ended up stopping, as the action swayed to long and short in rapid succession.

As you might notice from the chart, a number of support and resistance lines held sway for the majority of the day and made the trading fairly logical, which is a departure from some of the trading sessions of late.

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