I was listening to Dr. Roubini on a PBS clip last night and he believes we have averted the possibility of a depression. Hmmm….I decided that was some good news, I think.
As of late, though, I have felt manipulated by the powers-that-be (and you can decide just who the powers-that-be actually might be) as we have had this tremendous run-up in stock prices while unemployment has continued to march straight upward. Good Grief…the government’s official number is 9.45%, and some economists are squabbling that the calculation is artificially low, and if we used a non-manipulated formula for unemployment, say the one we used in 1982, the number would be much higher. And then there is the foreclosure issue…
The rate of foreclosures has also marched steadily upward, which would indicate that people do not have the money to pay for their homes. Or perhaps, they do not find it financially expedient to pay their homes and are diverting their funds to savings or some other investment vehicle, which I find highly unlikely.
The credit markets are broken, with the government guaranteeing everything from car manufacturer loans to bank accounts, to….well, you name it.
My point is simple: The stock market is disconnected from the economic health of the country. Granted, the VIX has stopped oscillating like a seismograph needle in 8.4 earthquake, but the markets, of late, would have you believing that everything is honky-dory.
I don’t feel honky-dory. No, the footing on the path I am walking feels loose and very sketchy.
With the amount of money we have pumped into the economy, a great deal of the looming disaster has been put off, but has it been put off forever, or have just put it off for another ten years?
In the past, countries that have inflated their M1 and pumped the kind of stimulus money into their economies have had a nasty dust-up with inflation, and that worries me. Where are we headed with inflation? I have this niggling that there is inflation out there waiting…at least it ought to be waiting.
No, none of the current economic data makes sense to me, there are too many asymmetric variables to account for to let me breath deep and comfortably.
Where in the Hell are we in this ongoing mess?
I was listening to Dr. Roubini on a PBS clip last night and he believes we have averted the possibility of a depression. Hmmm….I decided that was some good news, I think.
As of late, though, I have felt manipulated by the powers-that-be (and you can decide just who the powers-that-be actually might be) as we have had this tremendous run-up in stock prices while unemployment has continued to march straight upward. Good Grief…the government’s official number is 9.45%, and some economists are squabbling that the calculation is artificially low, and if we used a non-manipulated formula for unemployment, say the one we used in 1982, the number would be much higher. And then there is the foreclosure issue…
The rate of foreclosures has also marched steadily upward, which would indicate that people do not have the money to pay for their homes. Or perhaps, they do not find it financially expedient to pay their homes and are diverting their funds to savings or some other investment vehicle, which I find highly unlikely.
The credit markets are broken, with the government guaranteeing everything from car manufacturer loans to bank accounts, to….well, you name it.
My point is simple: The stock market is disconnected from the economic health of the country. Granted, the VIX has stopped oscillating like a seismograph needle in 8.4 earthquake, but the markets, of late, would have you believing that everything is honky-dory.
I don’t feel honky-dory. No, the footing on the path I am walking feels loose and very sketchy.
With the amount of money we have pumped into the economy, a great deal of the looming disaster has been put off, but has it been put off forever, or have just put it off for another ten years?
In the past, countries that have inflated their M1 and pumped the kind of stimulus money into their economies have had a nasty dust-up with inflation, and that worries me. Where are we headed with inflation? I have this niggling that there is inflation out there waiting…at least it ought to be waiting.
No, none of the current economic data makes sense to me, there are too many asymmetric variables to account for to let me breath deep and comfortably.