Archive for November, 2009

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 30 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 12/01/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1100.33 1105.92 1092.42 1086.83 1078.92

Fed and Fed Agency Announcement

Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
[Report][Star]10:00 AM ET

Charles Plosser Speaks
12:20 PM ET

In depth Consensus Reports

Motor Vehicle Sales
Released on 12/1/2009 For Nov, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Domestic Vehicle Sales 7.9 M 7.75 M 7.50 M to 8.00 M

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales of domestic light motor vehicles in October rebounded 17.2 percent to 7.8 million units as sales returned to normal-at least for the current recovery. Combined sales of domestics and imports in rose to a 10.5 million annualized unit rate from 9.2 million in September. Now that the monthly swings from cash-for-clunkers have been wrung out from the data, November will stand out as a possibly true measure of the strength of demand for motor vehicles and of the viability of the consumer sector to a large degree

ISM Mfg Index
Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
ISM Mfg Index – Level 55.7 55.0 53.8  to 56.0

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey jumped more than 3 points in October to 55.7. This is the strongest for this index in more than three years. Showing the most improvement of the composite’s components was the production index which advanced over 7-1/2 points to 63.3. But we may see some leveling off in the composite index in November as the new orders index eased from 60.8 in September to 58.5 in October, but still remained well in positive territory. Price increases were steady in the month, showing little change at 65.0 compared to 63.5 in September.

Construction Spending
Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Construction Spending – M/M change 0.8 % -0.4 % -1.5 % to 0.3 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Construction spending was sharply higher than expected for September but a large downward revision to August was essentially offsetting. Overall construction spending advanced 0.8 percent in September after slipping a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in August. The decrease in August was now significantly lower than the original estimate of a 0.8 percent gain. The boost in spending in September was led by a 3.8 percent surge in private residential outlays. Private nonresidential declined 1.8 percent and public outlays decreased 0.1 percent in the latest month.

Some Commentary on Day Trading Chart Patterns

By trader7757, 30 November, 2009, No Comment

Somewhere along the line, we’re brainwashed into thinking that chart pattern analysis is not enough. In some ways, that is both right and wrong. There are specific questions any trader can learn to ask to confirm that the pattern is a quality pattern.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Anouncements-Commentary

By trader7757, 29 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/30/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1102.83 1116.17 1084.92 1071.58 1053.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Chicago PMI
[Report][Bullet9:45 AM ET
Farm Prices
[Bullet3:00 PM ET

Chicago PMI
Released on 11/30/2009 9:45:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Business Barometer Index – Level 54.2 53.0 50.8  to 55.5

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Chicago PMI jumped more than 8 points in October to 54.2. For the month, production surged nearly 17 points. We may see further improvement in November as the new orders index jumped more than 15 points.
Definition
The Institute of Supply Management – Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey is conducted by Kingsbury International, LTD. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector.
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