Archive for November, 2009

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 12 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/13/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1098.00 1108.75 1090.25 1079.50 1071.75

Fed and Agency Announcements

Charles Evans Speaks
10:30 AM ET

The question in my mind is where this market is headed.  How long can this gravity defying stock market rally continue?  I know, I know, I thought you were a scalper?  In my trading life I am a scalper, but spending so much time day trading makes you like an intimate friend of this rally.  Just when you think the market could not go higher, it seems to find a way…

ES Emini Daytrading: Daily Pivot, Fed Annoucements and Commentary

By , 11 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/11/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1092.42 1092.58 1092.08 1091.92 1091.58

Fed and Fed Agency Annoucements

It’s Veterans Day and the Fed is taking it easy.

ES Emini: Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 10 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/10/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1099.75 1107.75 1084.00 1076.00 1060.25

Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

Redbook
[Report][Bullet
8:55 AM ET

Dennis Lockhart Speaks
9:15 AM ET

Janet Yellen Speaks
10:00 AM ET

Richard Fisher Speaks
7:30 PM ET

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Released on 11/10/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk11/7, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales – W/W change 0.1 % -0.1 %
Store Sales – Y/Y 1.9 % 2.9 %

Highlights
ICSC-Goldman’s same-store retail index ended six straight weeks of gains, down 0.1 percent in the Nov. 7 week to mask a plus 2.9 percent year-on-year rate that’s the best since August last year. ICSC, which stands for the International Council of Shopping Centers, often conducts special surveys, and their latest indicates that shoppers plan to put off holiday shopping until the Friday after Thanksgiving, which the report said is now being dubbed “Bargain Friday” instead of “Black Friday,” the latter referring to the first day of retailer profitability. The report, as others, expects year-on-year rates to continue to improve as retailers lap comparisons with last year’s deep recession. Redbook will post their results at 8:55 ET.

Redbook

Released on 11/10/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk11/7, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 0.9 % 1.7 %

Highlights
Year-on-year rates are definitely on the increase in the retail sector which is beginning to benefit from easy comparisons against last year’s deep recession. Redbook reports a plus 1.7 percent year-on-year rate in the Nov. 7 week, the best since September last year. ICSC-Goldman, issued earlier this morning, shows the best year-on-year rate since August last year. But what this means for the month-to-month comparison is uncertain. Redbook’s first take on October vs. November is very positive, showing a 4.3 percent gain but one a little weaker than the targeted 4.8 percent gain. Redbook says retailers are promoting hard trying to make each day a “Black Friday” with deep discounts and early holiday displays.

Lots of Fed Speak this afternoon as two FOMC give separate speeches this afternoon.  Perhaps the market may take some interest in these speeches, though I cannot discern that the market, at this juncture, is paying attention to anything.  Also, plenty of sales data, which should give some guidance on how the Christmas shopping season may play out.

We made new yearly highs in several of the stock index contracts yesterday. which I wrote about yesterday afternoon.  I would suspect that much of the volatility we experienced earlier in the year may return as the market thrashes about in full bull or bear market rally mode.

ES Emini Day Trading: Another Bubble?

By , 9 November, 2009, No Comment

The market continues to post impressive gains of late, which has made for some nice day trading opportunities. Just looking at the chat boards, it’s my guess that John Q. Public has sat this one out, though.

And that would be typical.

Individual investors tend to exit the market during a prolonged downturn toward the end of the cycle, especially the one last year. That is baffling to me, too. Once you have lost 50% of your money, really, what do you have to lose? Selling only locks in the loss. But that is a typical investing pattern when small investors are run out of the market, and, they fail to jump in when the market trends upward.

If I were a long term investor, this market is a little scary, and Nouriel Roubini is once again issuing warnings about our economy.

The latest run up has made me grateful I am a day trader and scalper, because being in this market more than 15 minutes just plain scares me. The government has, as usual, pursued a policy of accommodation for the big investment banks, including giving them all billions of dollars to stay afloat. Whenever Wall Street bankers get their firms in trouble, be it junk bonds, credit default swaps, the leaders of our country are quick to dole out cash to bail them out. It’s always been that way, and keeping the Fed Funds interest rate at zero has been a boon to the investment banks community. I would also note that it has done absolutely nothing for Main Street citizens of our country.

Okay, I’ll get off the soap box. Here is the problem, though…

The market has gone up 50%+ since March, and the primary reason for this run up has been a policy of economic accommodation for Wall Street. I see nothing in the economy that is noticeably better since the most recent recession started. Unemployment is at an all time high, foreclosure rates continue to sky-rocket and the consumer has, by most measures, kept his credit card in his/her wallet.

The stock market, though, has continued it’s climb while Main Street suffers through the doldrums of the recession. Now you could argue that the market is pre-cursor of better times, that the market is a leading indicator, so to speak. Then again, you can also make a cogent argument that this run up is nothing more than a bubble of artificial origin. Unfortunately, Nouriel Roubini has made the latter argument, and he had a handle on the original problems last year. I hope he is wrong.

I would feel much better, though, if our government gave up it’s love affair with the banking community and investment bankers in general. These buffoons have a penchant for loading risk on their dinner plate and then come asking for an antacid when they get a stomach ache. If, or when this market collapses, at least the smaller investor won’t be effected so directly. There is some comfort in that.

I would point out that collapse is not imminent, but at some juncture the disconnect between Wall Street and Main St. will bear noxious fruit.

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By , 9 November, 2009, No Comment

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ES Emini: Pivot and Fed Announcements, Commentary.

By , 8 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/09/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1072.67 1079.08 1063.08 1056.67 1047.08

Fed and Agency Announcements

Monday’s Pivot info is above.
Not a whole lot relevant of day trading info on Monday, with the exception of some bill and note auctions.  All sorts of chatter on the ES Emini day trading chat boards, the doom and gloom crowd is out in force, and with good reason, though there is an infinite realm of political and economic possibilities.  I can’t say I fully understand the market of late, and I am thankful I am a scalper so I don’t have to try to pick the market direction.  I have not the slightest idea which way we are headed.
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New Video: Is Crude Finally Heading Higher

By , 6 November, 2009, No Comment

A Quick Update on the Crude Oil Market

I was just looking at the charts and they are beginning to look very, very bullish. The formation I show you in today’s video is a classic continuation pattern to the upside. This pattern also confirms a Fibonacci target number we are looking at.

This video is short and to the point and I think it will get you thinking about this energy market.

Click here to see where crude oil is headed

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. After you watch the movie, please feel free to comment on blog.

New Video: RIMM’s Big Buyback Bet

By , 6 November, 2009, No Comment

“Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) will spend up to $1.2 billion to buy back about 21 million of its shares, or 3.6% of its total shares outstanding. The buyback will start Nov. 9 and last for up to one year.”

That was the headline news today on Research in Motion symbol RIMM so I decided to look at the chart to see what was going on in the “real world”. When I got to the chart, one thing immediately jumped out at me and that was the negative action that this market has shown in the past several weeks. Looking at this market a little closer I was able to see that our “Trade Triangle” technology was 100% negative and that our monthly “Trade Triangle” indicator had turned negative on October 28th at $63.38. This is a major negative in my mind for this market.

In this short video I show you exactly what we expect to see for RIMM in the future. I also share with you some downside targets that we are looking at which may surprise you.

Click here for this informative investment video on RIMM

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I hope you enjoy the video and comment about it on our blog.

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