Archive for January, 2010

Fibonacci Retracement and Extension – The Holy Grail in Trading!

By , 26 January, 2010, 2 Comments

After the market bounces back and takes a U turn at one of these retracement levels and rallies to the point D we say that the market has moved 27% above the original move AB or a total of 1.27%. Now if you want to become a serious trader no matter what market you trade, you should learn Fibonacci Retracement and Extension.

Should You Trade Futures Contracts Instead of Stocks?

By , 24 January, 2010, No Comment

Leverage in futures contracts can be a very useful tool to increase your account balance, and your potential to make money is far greater in a futures account than day trading a stock account. But managing a futures account takes a high degree of skill and self discipline.

Natural Born Traders: Fact or Fiction

By , 23 January, 2010, 2 Comments

dayThere is a common misconception that some people are born today trade. In my experience, after knowing hundreds of day traders, I have never met a trader who could naturally trade without any training. I will readily admit that some day traders are quicker than others to learn the basic principles of trading, and I would also go so far as to say that some traders have a difficult time learning even the rudimentary principles of traders. After all, we are all gifted with different skill sets, and we are not all set up to be futures traders.

This contrasts sharply with some other fields of endeavor. For example, I have a friend who is a natural born golfer. For as long as I have known him he could hit a golf ball out of sight. He can shoot even par no matter what the weather conditions. He can even shoot par when he is intoxicated, which in itself is a miracle. For whatever reason, this relationship does not hold true in the trading venue. Perhaps it is because of the natural illogic of trading systems, or perhaps trading does not necessarily lend itself to natural ability. I don’t have the answer to this question.

I am an eternal optimist, and have found that most individuals who are willing to put a certain amount of book work, a lot of practice, and dogged determination can learn to day trade very effectively. I must add one caveat, however: I have met several people, a very small percentage, who simply were unsuited to trade, and it became apparent very early in their training that trading just didn’t suit them. Again, this is a very small percentage.

It is my opinion that great day traders are trained, seasoned and combine years of experience before they become truly great traders. Unfortunately, trading on Wall Street is a very stressful field of endeavor and most day traders exit the trading game before they realize their potential. Most major investment bank trading rooms are filled with young traders, with a a seasoned veteran overseeing operations of the trading operation. I am 52 years old, and my limit for trading is about four hours. My mind tires and my concentration wanes, but the trades I make are generally well thought out and years of experience keep me out of the bad trades and help me to recognize the good trades.

And that is the rub. As a new trader you are going to make some bad trades, it’s inevitable and it is okay, if you learn from your mistakes. On a given day, there are many set-ups that look enticing, but there be one factor that precludes that trade from being successful. Your ability to discern that single negative factor is what will make you a good trader.

I want to make one very important point, though. You don’t have to be a great day trader to make money in the market. If you have learned a good system, have the proper self-discipline, and can execute your system with a high degree of accuracy…you can be very profitable in your trading endeavor. You don’t have to be great, just good. On the other hand, if you stick with trading for a long while you have the potential to be great. The downside to this situation is humorous, though. You will be the only one who knows you are great. Unless you are trading for a large investment bank, you will have to be content with knowing you are a great trader and leave it at that. But who really cares? As long as your futures trading account reflects the excellent results you are enjoying, isn’t that enough?

In summary, learn your system inside and out. In my day trading, I also learn a number of alternative systems inside out. Work on the self-discipline required to make your trading effective. Avoid entering trades based on emotion. Further, always work to improve your trading, keep a journal of your trades, and review the trades that did not work out so you don’t repeat them. And most importantly, be persistent and dogged in your approach to trading, strive for perfection, even though perfection is nearly impossible. We all have the potential to be great traders, but most don’t reach deep enough to realize their potential. Be one of the few that reaches his potential.

Free Trading Course

By , 23 January, 2010, No Comment

In my Free Mini Email Course, I will show and explain the tools and strategies you need to increase your success rate in the marketplace.

How Really Useful Are Fibonacci Retracements

By , 22 January, 2010, No Comment

So there you have it, the reason the Fibonacci ratios work is unclear, and I am unwilling to bestow mythic credibility based on the history of the ratio. On the other hand, there is no denying the market pays attention to these numbers. Whether I believe they are a self-fulfilling prophecy is irrelevant, because as traders we only deal in profitable trades and growing account balances. The “why” just doesn’t matter

Is the NASDAQ Running Out of Steam?

By , 22 January, 2010, No Comment

The NASDAQ index is now in thin air and appears to be waning in strength. In my new video I show exactly what I think will happen to this market.

Unlike the Dow and the S&P 500, the NASDAQ index has reached unsustainable levels. This is a dangerous area for this index to be in and we would not be surprised to see downward pressure coming into this market later this year or into 2010.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

Click here to learn about the future of the Nasdaq

Do You Day Trade the Eminis Using Market Orders?

By , 18 January, 2010, No Comment

I like to enter day trades by letting the market come to me, that way I get in at a price that is below what the market order would afford.

Day Trading the ES Emini: Contract Considerations

By , 16 January, 2010, No Comment

Contract Considerations for Day Trading the ES Emini

It garners more trading volume than any emini contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and has run away (in trading volume) from any other futures contract currently traded.  It the pint sized version of the S and P contract that traders have flocked to in recent years.  Better yet, it is specifically designed and priced for the individual trader.  What’s not to like?

I spend a decent amount of time in trade rooms, helping novice day traders develop their trading style.  One thing I have noticed, especially among the novice day traders, is their lack of awareness of exactly what they are trading.  So I thought I would write an article that gives the very basics of the ES contract.

What is the S and P 500?  You would be surprised at how many traders can’t definitively answer this question.  The S and P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest, publicly traded, large-cap stocks in the United States.  The index has been around since 1957.  The index is calculated and published by Standard and Poor’s, hence the S and P in the title.  Incidentally, the index reached it’s highest point in March, 2000 at 1552.87.  In 2010, it was trading in the 1100 range, a far cry from it’s apex.

The ES emini contract was established on Sept. 9, 1997, and has grown steadily since that date.  Some specifics on the contract are:

1.  The contract months for the ES are
a.  March         =H
b.  June            =M
c.  September  = U
d.  December   = Z

Notice the contract months are designated by letters, and the contract designation is calculated by combining the letters with the ES designation, the month, and finally the last number of the year.  For example, ESM0= the ES contract for June in 2010.  Once you trade the ES for a period of time this nomenclature becomes second nature.

Many have been confused by the pricing model used for the ES contract.  It is fairly simple.  The ES emini is one fifth the value of the traditional S and P contract, so each point is worth $50 dollars, as oppose to $250 per point on the big contract.  Each point is divided into ticks or one fourth point, or $12.50 per tick.  So, 4 ticks at $12.50= $50.

The contract expires at 8:30 a.m. on the third Friday of contract month. (March, June, Sept. Dec.)  It is fairly normal for traders to have abandoned trading the contract about two weeks before the expiration.  Most futures brokerages  announce the date of switch over to their clients, so there is generally not the confusion that you might expect at contract expiration.  If you are a day trader, it is imperative that you switch to the new contract prior (preferably the above mentioned two weeks) and not trade the ES emini right up to expiration.  Most of the volume evaporates from the contract on the switch date, and you could run into having make good delivery of the full delivery requirement of the contract.

The clear advantage of the ES emini contract is the tremendous liquidity, and thus you should never see slippage as a result of the contract trading thin.  More than a million contracts are traded on an average day, which is astounding volume when taken against some of the thinner emini contracts offered.

The ES emini contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which has been a true innovator in the emini arena.  The CME Globex is the actual home of the contract, and it trades during regular trading hours, takes a short break, and then trades all night until the opening of the next days cycle.  The actual hours of trading are:

Monday-Thurs  5:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m. & 3:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m.
Sunday              5:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m.

Margins requirements vary by firm and whether you are trading intraday or holding contracts overnight.  For inraday traders, you can find margin requirements as low as $400/contract and as high as $3000/contract.  Of course, the lower contract margin requirement may tempt some traders into over trading their futures account, and this can be a real problem.  In any event, the contract margin requirements vary greatly.

As you can see, the ES emini contract is a versatile and popular equity trading instrument.  We have reviewed the monetary basis for the contract, as well as the calender specifics for trading.  We have pointed out the margin requirements and trading hours, now all that is left is for you to perfect your trading style and enjoy trading this flat-out-fun trading instrument.

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