Posts by trader7757

Free Trading Course

By , 23 January, 2010, No Comment

In my Free Mini Email Course, I will show and explain the tools and strategies you need to increase your success rate in the marketplace.

How Really Useful Are Fibonacci Retracements

By , 22 January, 2010, No Comment

So there you have it, the reason the Fibonacci ratios work is unclear, and I am unwilling to bestow mythic credibility based on the history of the ratio. On the other hand, there is no denying the market pays attention to these numbers. Whether I believe they are a self-fulfilling prophecy is irrelevant, because as traders we only deal in profitable trades and growing account balances. The “why” just doesn’t matter

Is the NASDAQ Running Out of Steam?

By , 22 January, 2010, No Comment

The NASDAQ index is now in thin air and appears to be waning in strength. In my new video I show exactly what I think will happen to this market.

Unlike the Dow and the S&P 500, the NASDAQ index has reached unsustainable levels. This is a dangerous area for this index to be in and we would not be surprised to see downward pressure coming into this market later this year or into 2010.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

Click here to learn about the future of the Nasdaq

Do You Day Trade the Eminis Using Market Orders?

By , 18 January, 2010, No Comment

I like to enter day trades by letting the market come to me, that way I get in at a price that is below what the market order would afford.

Day Trading the ES Emini: Contract Considerations

By , 16 January, 2010, No Comment

Contract Considerations for Day Trading the ES Emini

It garners more trading volume than any emini contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and has run away (in trading volume) from any other futures contract currently traded.  It the pint sized version of the S and P contract that traders have flocked to in recent years.  Better yet, it is specifically designed and priced for the individual trader.  What’s not to like?

I spend a decent amount of time in trade rooms, helping novice day traders develop their trading style.  One thing I have noticed, especially among the novice day traders, is their lack of awareness of exactly what they are trading.  So I thought I would write an article that gives the very basics of the ES contract.

What is the S and P 500?  You would be surprised at how many traders can’t definitively answer this question.  The S and P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest, publicly traded, large-cap stocks in the United States.  The index has been around since 1957.  The index is calculated and published by Standard and Poor’s, hence the S and P in the title.  Incidentally, the index reached it’s highest point in March, 2000 at 1552.87.  In 2010, it was trading in the 1100 range, a far cry from it’s apex.

The ES emini contract was established on Sept. 9, 1997, and has grown steadily since that date.  Some specifics on the contract are:

1.  The contract months for the ES are
a.  March         =H
b.  June            =M
c.  September  = U
d.  December   = Z

Notice the contract months are designated by letters, and the contract designation is calculated by combining the letters with the ES designation, the month, and finally the last number of the year.  For example, ESM0= the ES contract for June in 2010.  Once you trade the ES for a period of time this nomenclature becomes second nature.

Many have been confused by the pricing model used for the ES contract.  It is fairly simple.  The ES emini is one fifth the value of the traditional S and P contract, so each point is worth $50 dollars, as oppose to $250 per point on the big contract.  Each point is divided into ticks or one fourth point, or $12.50 per tick.  So, 4 ticks at $12.50= $50.

The contract expires at 8:30 a.m. on the third Friday of contract month. (March, June, Sept. Dec.)  It is fairly normal for traders to have abandoned trading the contract about two weeks before the expiration.  Most futures brokerages  announce the date of switch over to their clients, so there is generally not the confusion that you might expect at contract expiration.  If you are a day trader, it is imperative that you switch to the new contract prior (preferably the above mentioned two weeks) and not trade the ES emini right up to expiration.  Most of the volume evaporates from the contract on the switch date, and you could run into having make good delivery of the full delivery requirement of the contract.

The clear advantage of the ES emini contract is the tremendous liquidity, and thus you should never see slippage as a result of the contract trading thin.  More than a million contracts are traded on an average day, which is astounding volume when taken against some of the thinner emini contracts offered.

The ES emini contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which has been a true innovator in the emini arena.  The CME Globex is the actual home of the contract, and it trades during regular trading hours, takes a short break, and then trades all night until the opening of the next days cycle.  The actual hours of trading are:

Monday-Thurs  5:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m. & 3:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m.
Sunday              5:00 p.m.-3:15 p.m.

Margins requirements vary by firm and whether you are trading intraday or holding contracts overnight.  For inraday traders, you can find margin requirements as low as $400/contract and as high as $3000/contract.  Of course, the lower contract margin requirement may tempt some traders into over trading their futures account, and this can be a real problem.  In any event, the contract margin requirements vary greatly.

As you can see, the ES emini contract is a versatile and popular equity trading instrument.  We have reviewed the monetary basis for the contract, as well as the calender specifics for trading.  We have pointed out the margin requirements and trading hours, now all that is left is for you to perfect your trading style and enjoy trading this flat-out-fun trading instrument.

Your Emotional Day Trading Outlook Can Be Terminal

By , 15 January, 2010, No Comment

In summary, we have looked at the effects emotions have upon trading futures. Many traders tend to become emotionally involved in the positions fail to adjust to the trading situation. They have an intense need to be right. Other traders become confident, which is a great attribute to have if you are in a sporting contest with another opponent. On the other hand, the market is inanimate and overconfidence is poorly deployed in the trading environment. Your ability to recognize the emotional demands of trading will, more or less, be a major contributor to your success.

Learn to Control Your Emotions When Day Trading

By , 14 January, 2010, No Comment

Most traders suffer from the mistaken notion that if your learn a good day trading system you will make big money day trading.  Of course, nothing could be farther from the truth.  One of the few topics that most day traders are reluctant to talk about is market psychology and trading psychology.  Yet, when I sit down and trade with a new day trader, I can usually ascertain the emotional issues he will encounter after the first hour.

Some day traders believe that good traders have some sort of intuition into the functioning of the futures market.  Here is the rub, when you are trading; your ability to control your emotions while you trade will, in large part, determine your success.  Can you simply turn your emotions off and continue to trade on just the facts?

The overwhelming response I receive when this question is posed is “of course I can!”  Most day traders do not want to see themselves as weak or deficient, yet when they trade these deficiencies are nearly always present.  Your emotions betray you when you trade, and the secret to trading is to have firm control over how you think at the emotional level.  It is easier said than done, too.  While confidence in trading is important, over confidence is an account-buster.  The markets will humble you before you get a handle on what went wrong.  Taking a respectful approach to the markets and the risks involved in trading will service you far better.  I tell myself several times a day “the market is right, you are wrong.”

When I trade, my goal is to trade what I see on the chart.  I don’t trade the news, I don’t trade on rumors.  I don’t trade the economy.  No, I have a specific methodology for trading the chart on the screen and it does not include outside influences.  I am not interested in what market pundits have to say about trading on a given day.  For many traders, that is a tough pill to swallow.

Here are some of the measures I use to control my exposure to emotional roadblocks.

1.  I don’t watch television when I trade.  Most of the networks have an agenda in their announcing style that is not objective.  Some networks are eternal optimists in the face of contrary facts, and other networks are overly pessimistic in the outlook.  I depend on my own analytical skills in reading charts and arriving at my conclusions.

2.  I generally play classical music when I trade, as I find this music emotion neutral.  Some rock n roll affects me at the emotional level, which is to say the music is psychologically stimulating and I have found I am too aggressive in my trading.  As you can see, I have thought some about this issue.

3.  I never look at a chat room in my trading, and usually don’t frequent chat rooms at all.  Why?  Most chat room posters are doomsday types.  The sky is not falling, and I am not chicken little, and I do not want my trading influenced by spurious information.

4.  I sometimes listen to a radio station when I trade, but it is usually a talk sports station and nothing more than banter.  This does not seem to effect my trading unless they talk about the Chicago Cubs, then I am usually irritated and turn the radio off. (yes, I am a long suffering Cubs fan)

So outside influences can, in fact, be an issue; but there are even tougher influences to conquer, and that is the psychological point of view within yourself.

Your own outlook on the world can influence your judgment, regardless of the outside influences to which you expose yourself.  Emotional considerations like greed can cause you to trade recklessly and outside the parameters of your trading system.  Greed?  Yes, there have been several books written in the last 2 years that compare the hormone levels after a very successful trade to pre-trade hormone levels, and found your body’s physiological response was to release large amounts of endorphin, resulting in temporary euphoria. (See “It’s Not What You Think, It’s How You Think,” Larry Pesavento, author)  Temporary euphoria is not a good state to trade, and may result in terrible losses.

In summary, there is good evidence to suggest that your state of emotions is the determining factor in day trading success.  Anecdotal and scientific research has brought this consideration to the forefront in recent years.  It is important to realize the detrimental effect your emotions can have upon your trading and take action to minimize outside influences, especially those involving greed, euphoria and overconfidence.  And finally, trading psychology is one of the least understood facets of trading and will likely stay that way, because of traders aversion to talking about their feelings in the trading environment.

I know for me it’s simple; anytime I think I know what the market is going to do, I need to remind myself…I don’t know what the market is going to do, and I need to simply trade the chart in front of me without bias.  It’s easier said than done.

As the Dow Goes, So Goes the Country

By , 13 January, 2010, No Comment

The Dow has managed to claw back 50% of the losses that occurred in 2007 and 2008. The question now is, what’s ahead?

In my new video I share with you some of the ideas that I’m looking at for this Dow Industgrial. I believe we are at a very important crossroads and would not be surprised to see the Dow Industrial lose ground in the next 3 to 6 months. In the video I also show you exactly what I’m looking at that will confirm a major top for the Dow.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

Click here to see this stock market video

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