Archive for ‘daytrading’

ES Emini Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 30 December, 2009, No Comment
Daily Pivots for day following 29-Dec-2009
Classic Woodie Camarilla DeMark
R4 1147.58 1142.67 1126.15
R3 1139.58 1134.67 1123.95
R2 1131.58 1131.58 1123.22
R1 1126.67 1126.67 1122.48 1125.13
PP 1123.58 1123.58 1123.58 1122.81
S1 1118.67 1118.67 1121.02 1117.13
S2 1115.58 1115.58 1120.28
S3 1107.58 1110.67 1119.55
S4 1099.58 1102.67 1117.35

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Chicago PMI
[Report][djStar]
9:45 AM ET

Farm Prices
[Bullet
3:00 PM ET

Consensus Analysis

Chicago PMI

Released on 12/30/2009 9:45:00 AM For Dec, 2008
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Business Barometer Index – Level 56.1 54.9 52.8  to 57.0

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Chicago PMI rose nearly 2 points in November to 56.1 to indicate a month-to-month increase in the pace of overall business activity in the area. New orders rose 1.4 points to a very strong 62.8, a plus-60 level that, because of its strength, will be hard to match in the coming months. Prices paid showed a mild month-to-month increase at 52.6.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 24 December, 2009, No Comment
ESH0
For 12/24/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESH0 1119.92 1124.33 1115.58 1111.17 1106.83

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Most of the CME Markets close at noon today for the Christmas Break, expect trading this morning to be light as many traders take the entire day off.

Jobless Claims
[Report][djStar]
8:30 AM ET

NYSE Early Close – 1:00 ET

SIFMA Rec. Early Close 2:00 ET

Money Supply
[Bullet
4:30 PM ET

Relevant Consensus Analysis

Durable Goods Orders

Released on 12/24/2009 8:30:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Orders – M/M change -0.6 % 0.5 % -1.0 % to 1.5 % 0.2 %
New Orders – Yr/Yr Change -11.9 % -7.8 %
Ex-transportation – M/M -1.3 % 2.0 %
Ex-transportation – Yr/Yr -11.3 % -6.9 %

Highlights
Boeing orders slipped in November but the rest of durables orders look good. New orders for durable goods in November rebounded 0.2 percent after a 0.6 percent decline in October. The boost in November came in below the consensus forecast for a 0.5 percent increase. Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders posted a 2.0 percent gain, following a 0.7 percent drop in October. The weakness in transportation was a huge drop in civilian aircraft orders.

The November rebound in new orders was broad-based outside of transportation. Sizeable gains were seen in communication equipment, up 4.0 percent, computers & electronics, up 3.7 percent; machinery, up 3.5 percent; and electrical equipment, up 3.2 percent. Also posting gains were primary metals and fabricated metals.

Transportation fell 5.5 percent after slipping 0.2 percent in October. Within transportation, nondefense aircraft dropped 32.6 percent in November; defense aircraft fell 3.2 percent; and motor vehicles slipped 0.2 percent.

The outlook for capital goods spending is improving at the core level-although it may be foreign spending more than domestic investment. However, headline new orders for nondefense capital goods fell 1.9 percent in November after an increase of 0.8 percent the previous month. The weakness was in the volatile aircraft component. Excluding aircraft, new orders for nondefense capital goods rebounded 2.9 percent after a 2.0 percent dip in October. These numbers reflect orders from both foreign and U.S. businesses.

Year-on-year, overall new orders for durable goods improved to minus 7.8 percent in November from minus 11.7 percent the month before. Excluding transportation, new durables orders increased to minus 6.9 percent from down 10.5 percent in October.

Overall, today’s durables report shows manufacturing still on a gradual uptrend. Growth in this sector is leading the economy but at a moderate pace.

Equities might be disappointed in the shortfall from expectation other than jobless claims fell more sharply than projected. Equities will likely rise on that report. However, Treasury yields were marginally lower on the two releases.

Jobless Claims

Released on 12/24/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk12/19, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims – Level 480 K 470 K 450 K to 475 K 452 K

Highlights
The brightest spot on the economic calendar continues to be initial jobless claims which fell a very substantial 28,000 in the Dec. 19 week to 452,000 — a dip that the Labor Department describes as a part of “long-term trend” of improvement. The four-week average continues to come down, now at 465,250 for a 2,750 decrease. Continuing claims also continue to come down, 127,000 lower in the Dec. 12 week to 5.076 million. Trends for both initial and continuing claims show sizable improvement from November in what will raise talk of a possible gain for December payrolls.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 22 December, 2009, No Comment
ESH0
For 12/22/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESH0 1115.50 1122.75 1106.00 1098.75 1089.25

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

GDP
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
[Bullet
8:55 AM ET

C

4-Week Bill Auction
[Bullet
11:30 AM ET

Consensus Reports

GDP

Released on 12/22/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR 2.8 % 2.7 % 2.5 % to 2.9 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % to 0.5 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the second estimate for the third quarter growth was revised downward to an annualized 2.8 percent from the initial estimate of 3.5 percent. The third quarter increase, however, appears to have ended the recession which faded with a 0.7 percent dip in the second quarter. With the third estimate for the third quarter, the components facing potentially notable revisions are inventories and net exports. Turning to inflation, the GDPI price index was nudged down to a 0.5 percent annualized pace for the third quarter from the initial estimate of 0.8 percent.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 20 December, 2009, No Comment

ESZ9
For 12/21/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1107.10 1111.80 1102.80 1098.10 1093.80

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

6-Month Bill Auction
[Bullet
11:30 AM ET

Highlights
After the boost to equities at Friday’s close from quadruple witching, will the gains reverse as trading returns to normal?

ES Emini Day Trading: Eight Habits of Successful Trading Scalpers

By , 19 December, 2009, No Comment

ES Emini Day Trading:  Eight Habits of Successful Trading Scalpers

Not everyone day trades in the same manner, but successful scalpers tend to share some similar characteristics.  Over the years, I have noticed that:

1.  A good scalper is familiar with the contract he is trading.  He has extensive experience trading the contract, and most scalpers will tell you that every futures contract has it’s own idiosyncracies that make it unique.  Trading a contract you are unfamiliar with can be fun, if you are trading low contract numbers and trying to learn, but it is a tough place to try and make money.

2.  A good scalper is in complete control of his trading account.  He does not overtrade or trade more contracts than his pre-set risk tolerance.  There is often a tendency among less talented scalpers to start trading larger contract amounts if they find themselves having a bad day.  A good scalper does not try to over compensate and stays within the parameters he lives by in his trading life.  Doubling down is not a good way to make up for successive losing trades.

3.  A good scalper is self-disciplined and stays within himself.  He has a system and his goal is to execute his system flawlessly.  He does not take on a risky trade that is not within the parameters of his entries, and he does not bail out of a trade that is still within his parameters if he starts feeling bad about the trade.  The ability to stay under control during difficult trading times is the hallmark of a great scalper.

4.  A good scalper has a solid understanding of his own ability.  Some markets are very difficult to trade, especially when the price action is whipshawing back and forth and there is no clear trend.  There are risky techniques to trade these markets, but they involve considerable risk which is probably outside the risk parameters of the scalpers.   Trading is not like Texas Hold ‘Em, you never go all in, and you never bluff.

5.  A good scalper realizes that the market is always right and he is always wrong.  This is a tough one to swallow, but when I make a losing trade, even though the set up was just exactly what I was looking for and the price started moving in the expected direction, then turns south and I get stop out, I am wrong.  The market is a constant, so it is always right.  It may not always be logical, but it is the ultimate decider of trading truth.

6.  A good scalper keeps track of his trading.  Most good scalpers keep a trading diary and perhaps even the daily chart for every day they trade.  I frequently go back six months and look at the things I did well and some of the things I did poorly.  It is part of the method of learning to trade to keep track of where you have been and revisit that place from time to time.  You don’t live in the past or dwell on your mistakes, you learn from your mistakes.

7.  A good scalper controls all the outside variables in his trading environment.  Many traders listen to music while they trade, some prefer silence, but very few listen to the trendy market television shows that blare out all sorts of speculation and rumor.  Scalpers trade the chart in front of them, and that chart contains all the information they need.  There is no need for some television talking head to skew your thinking, and it can happen.  The trading atmosphere should be away from the family, tv, radio anything that can distract, and the family should understand that while dad is trading he should be left to trade.

8.  And finally, a good trader has a healthy perspective on life.  He understands that as a scalper he does not have to worry about the broader trends effecting the economy or the world, at least from a trading standpoint.   He knows that all the information he needs is right there in the price action and indicators he has come to rely upon, and he trust his system to serve him well.  Trading isn’t everything in his life, but it is his income.  But trading gives him the time to spend with his children and family, his leisure time is enhanced, and he has a chance to make the world a better place instead of working long hours in the corporate life.

I am a long time retail and institutional trader who now only trades part time, usually in the morning. I enjoy writing informational articles about my style of trading so others may benefit.

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