Archive for ‘e-mini’

ES Emini Daytrading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 24 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/24/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1130.42 1158.08 1083.83 1056.17 1009.58

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

GDP
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET
Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET
FOMC Minutes
[Bullet2:00 PM ET

GDP
Released on 11/24/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR 3.5 % 2.8 % 2.5 % to 3.4 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % to 0.8 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the third quarter in the advance estimate came in stronger than expected with a 3.5 percent gain, following a 0.7 percent dip in the prior quarter. The third quarter boost was the first positive GDP number since a 1.5 percent increase for the second quarter of 2008. Cash for clunkers did add substantially to third quarter growth as motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Inflation is still subdued as the GDP price index edged up 0.8 percent, following no change in the second quarter. Looking ahead, more recent monthly numbers indicate a downward revision to third quarter growth—including negatives from monthly international trade and business inventories

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Released on 11/24/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk11/21, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales – W/W change -0.1 % 0 %
Store Sales – Y/Y 2.4 % 3.3 %

Highlights
Easy year-over-year comparisons look to make for strong mid-single-digit gains for November same-store sales, according to ICSC-Goldman. The week-to-week pace in the Nov. 21 week was unchanged but not the year-on-year pace which rose nearly 1 full percentage point to plus 3.3 percent for the best reading in more than two years. The report sees this rate increasing in the Nov. 30 week, predicting strong sales on what it calls “Bargain” Friday and also strong sales on the following Saturday. But year-on-year comparisons are not what the financial markets move on. It’s month-on-month that counts. Redbook, up at 8:55 ET, does offer a November-to-October measure.

Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 23 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/20/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1094.83 1095.17 1094.42 1094.08 1093.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Existing Home Sales
Released on 11/23/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Existing Home Sales – Level – SAAR 5.57 M 5.700 M 5.290 M to 5.900 M

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Existing home sales in September spiked 9.4 percent to a 5.57 million annual rate. Existing home sales have been on a healthy uptrend in recent months, showing gains in five of the last six months. Recent numbers have been boosted by the clock ticking down on tax credits for first time home buyers with closing required by November. Tax credits have been extended and expanded but we are likely to see an easing in sales as there are not as many in the eligibility pool for these tax credits as in earlier months. And rising unemployment is weighing on other potential buyers.

YM Emini Day Trading: Detailed Trading Chart for Tues

By trader7757, 17 November, 2009, No Comment

Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade.

YM Day trading chart with trades for the day.

YM Day trading chart with trades for the day.

Wow, I will sleep well tonight.  Though the trading on the YM emini day trading was choppy today, I managed to eek out with a small gain.  You can see that on three occasions today I found myself on the wrong side of the trade.  I was moving my stops up to one point.   If I was on the wrong side of the futures trade, I wanted to get out fast and look for something a little better.  Just the same, my style of trading was not suited to the market today, and my stubborn nature prevented me from just stopping when I saw the tough conditions for day trading.

I considered moving the CCI up to a 16 period setting, but I don’t think that would have helped much.  In non trending markets, it is tough to follow with my “trending oriented” trading style.  There really was not discernible trend from a scalping viewpoint.  Whipshaws were the name of the game.

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