Archive for ‘e-mini’

E-Mini Trading: Displaying Price Data on Bar Charts. Which Method Is Best?

By , 15 July, 2011, No Comment

If you ask a group of 10 e-mini traders which type of bar they prefer on their trading charts you will find no shortage of strong opinions. Most traders were taught to trade on a specific type of bar, say a candlestick, and adjust to their trading to the art of reading candlestick charts. Generally speaking, once they have learned a specific system it is difficult to dislodge, especially if the e-mini trader has been having success with candlesticks. On the other hand, there are a wide variety of bar charting techniques worthy of consideration, and most people fail to do so.

In this short article we will look at five types of bar charting techniques and give a short analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of each technique. We will be looking at:

• Candlestick charts
• Standard bar charts
• Heiken-Ashi charts
• Renko charts
• Range charts

It is my observation that the most popular charts and use today are candlestick charts. For the sake of convenience, we will be talking about bar charting techniques in relation to e-mini trading; though there are a wide variety of trading disciplines that employ the charting techniques we will discuss.

Candlestick charts

It is assumed by most historians that candlestick charts were developed in the 1500’s in Japan. Japan is considered by many to be the first country to develop a futures market of sorts in the rice trading industry. A candlestick is several components in its composition; a body, upper and lower wicks (though if the price closes at the top or bottom of a candlestick, it will not have a shadow at that point). It is also common to hear the wick formation referred to as a shadow. The body portion of a candlestick chart was traditionally painted black or white indicating the direction the body had moved. On most current charts, you will generally see upward movements in the body painted green and downward movements in the body painted red. There are groups of traders who have used traditional Japanese patterns in candlestick formations to predict movement in the market. The empirical evidence on accuracy of the predictive nature of candlesticks points toward a negative correlation and accuracy, though I would admit that a conclusive decision on this topic is yet to be formalized.

Heiken-Ashi Candlesticks

The Heiken-Ashi version of candlesticks also has its origins in the 1500’s in the Japan rice markets. They differ significantly from traditional candlesticks in that they are weighted in nature and are trend oriented. I have used them with success in my trading, though certain market conditions must exist for them to be used successfully. The formula for calculating Heiken-Ashi bars is as follows:
• Open = (open of previous bar+close of previous bar)/2
• Close = (open+high+low+close)/4
• High = maximum of high, open, or close (whichever is highest)
• Low = minimum of low, open, or close (whichever is lowest)
As you can notice there is a heavy weighting on the latter portion of the bar and the system is especially effective in trend following systems. There are a set of specific guidelines for using Heiken-Ashi charting bars which is reasonably extensive and beyond the scope of this article. However, I recommend any trader investigate this charting system as it has many useful applications.

Standard Bar Charts

While I no longer trade this charting system, when I learned the trade it was the predominant system in use. There are many traders at present who still prefer standard bar charts, especially stock traders, for their charting needs. Standard bar charts are reasonably simple in their construction; there is a vertical line that shows the range of the traders chosen bar time. And a hash mark on the left side of the line to indicate the open, and a hash mark on the right side to indicate the close of that particular bar. This charting system is often referred to as an OHLC chart. While this may be the simplest of charting systems, it’s still important to note that all charting systems are essentially displaying the same data in different formats.

Renko and Range charts

These two charting systems are similar in many ways, though they have some very distinct dissimilarities that should be thoroughly understood before undertaking any serious trading with them. Like candlesticks and Heiken-Ashi charting, Renko bars also have their origin in Japanese trading. Quite literally, Renko means bricks. Renko bars are often referred to as bricks by e-mini traders. When using these bars you set a specific range to be charted. For example, you may set your Range and Renko bars to a setting of four. With a setting of 4, every time the market moves 4 ticks a bar is formed. But there is a fundamental difference between Renko and Range bars. Range bars chart market movement in either direction, while Renko bars chart only in one direction. For example, when using Renko bars the market would have to move 4 ticks upward or downward before a new brick is displayed. On the other hand, a range bar will chart the complete range, up or down, and form a bar indicative of this movement.

In summary, we have taken a close look at 5 different charting tools. While an in-depth discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each system would entail a very lengthy discussion, I have tried to point out some basic advantages and disadvantages of each system. Each type of bar charting system provides a definite purpose for the e-mini trader, and I recommend serious e-mini traders investigate the advantages and disadvantages of each of these charting systems.

Real Live Trading Doesn’t Lie. Spend several days in my trading room and see if you can benefit from a fresh and unique view on trading e-mini contracts. Sign up for your free trading experience by clicking here.


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    E-Mini Trading: How Long Should You Trade in Simulated Mode?

    By , 15 July, 2011, No Comment

    Most new traders want to test their new e-mini trading skills on a trading simulator. Most new students can easily obtain a trading simulator from a reputable futures broker. The general line of thinking is to master e-mini trading on a simulator and then move to trading an actual live account. From the onset, I want to say that there is nothing inherently wrong with trading simulators other than they are the trading equivalent of video games. In short, there are no consequences for making either good or bad decisions.

    For me, the lack of trading consequences leads to long-term problems.

    As difficult as it may seem to believe, I have several students in my trading room who have been e-mini trading on simulators for several years. I frequently ask them why they have not moved to trading with real money, and they respond that “they want to completely understand trading before moving to an actual live account.” Of course, the real problem in this equation is fear of failure, and putting off an actual test of their trading skills is a suitable substitute for dealing with the issue of actually winning and losing trades. Even the best traders make trades that lose money. I have been trading for most of my life, and have entire days that end up in the negative column. I don’t enjoy losing, but it is a fact of life in the world of trading. I have even had periods of time where my trading style was not in tune with the market and I have had losing weeks, and occasionally even a losing month. It doesn’t happen often, and never in recent years, but learning to deal with losing trades is part and parcel of learning to trade.

    On the other hand, I like for students to use an e-mini trading simulator for several weeks so that they can learn the features of a trading platform like:

    • How to place a trade at a specific price
    • How to set up stop loss orders
    • How to set up staggered profit targets
    • Learn the general operating features of a trading platform
    • Place simulated trades to get a feel for how the price action looks on a DOM.

    In short, simulators are great places to learn how to operate a trading platform and implement the trading strategies the new student has been learning. But when fear begins to replace the learning feature of a trading simulator, it is my experience that most traders seldom make the transition from simulator to trading actual money. Until traders can make that quantum leap from pretend trading to real trading they are doing themselves a great disservice and would probably be best served spending their time in an avocation more suited to their psychological and emotional parameters. Trading is not for everyone.

    So, if you have been e-mini trading on a simulator for more than a year I would have a heart to heart conversation with myself. After a year of learning, you should be able to initiate a good number of winning trades, and experience some losing trades. Each trading experience is a learning moment and in order to learn you have to be an actual participant; extended time spent on a simulator is little more than participating in trading as a spectator. This is something for you to consider and take to heart.

    In summary, we have pointed out some excellent benefits associated with simulated trading and pointed out that an extended period spent in simulated trading may not be beneficial to a new trader. It is my opinion that traders should learn to trade on live accounts. In short, get off the sidelines and onto the field of play.

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      E-Mini Trading Versus Forex Trading: A Shocking Lack of Transparency

      By , 15 July, 2011, No Comment

      The lightly regulated Forex industry has been in recent years the target of both the SEC and the CFTC, with good reason. Exchange traded securities provide potential traders with a high level of transparency and information in regards to the equity product or series they intend to trade. Variables like a leverage, registration of broker-dealers, and capital adequacy requirements are just a few necessary requirements that would go a long way toward establishing much-needed transparency in the Forex industry.

      Forex trading has gained a large following in recent years as a popular day trading vehicle. It’s not unusual to observe a barrage of Forex firms touting their services on just about any financial news publication. As a longtime institutional stock trader and commodities trader I am often shocked at some of the outrageous claims and advertising techniques this industry utilizes. This type of advertising and verbiage is simply not allowed by the SEC or the CFTC. The Forex industry, on the other hand, is lightly regulated and offers no centralized exchanges like the securities industry in the United States and has virtually no regulation on advertising technique and claims.

      From the onset I want to point out that the United States stock and futures exchanges have their share of hucksters and fraudulent activity. You need only peruse the current SEC and CFTC enforcement actions to get an idea of the amount of illegal activities that occur in our highly regulated exchange based trading structure.

      On the other hand, the lightly regulated Forex industry has been in recent years the target of both the SEC and the CFTC, with good reason. Exchange traded securities provide potential traders with a high level of transparency and information in regards to the equity product or series they intend to trade. Variables like a leverage, registration of broker-dealers, and capital adequacy requirements are just a few necessary requirements that would go a long way toward establishing much-needed transparency in the Forex industry. Further, and from a personal standpoint, I believe a centralized exchange for Forex trading would be optimal for the industry.

      By means of comparison, the futures industry and stock trading exchanges have rigid leverage, registration and capital adequacy requirements. In addition, e-mini trading is all conducted through well-regulated and orderly exchanges that feature reliable data feeds that provide real-time information on volume, trading entities, and pricing to all participants. This transparency in the futures industry is a sharp contrast to the murky Forex industry which is dominated by individual banking interests. Quite simply, there is a shocking lack of transparency in the Forex industry. In an orderly market, all participants ought to have access to accurate real-time information and standardized trading contracts.

      Another concern of the SEC and CFTC is the leverage requirements in the Forex industry. The current United States industry standard for leverage and a Forex industry is 100:1. The most recent regulation proposes lowering the leverage standard to 10:1, which is a departure from the current leverage standard that is a quantum leap in scope. For a variety of reasons, Forex traders have been, by and large, fiercely critical of these regulations. Since the CFTC can only regulate firms in the United States, offshore firms would still be able to offer the absurdly high leverage requirements the Forex industry has enjoyed. The obvious result of this new regulation would be a mass migration of Forex traders from United States based firms to offshore firms that would not fall under the proposed US Forex reforms. There is, however, regulation under consideration that is very similar to offshore betting operations; in short, it is unlawful for US citizens to patronize offshore betting firms in order to circumvent current US law regarding betting. The proposed regulation for patronizing offshore Forex trading operations is very similar to the limitations of US citizens circumventing United States Forex regulation. In short, Forex traders based in the United States would be required to trade through domestic Forex trading operations.

      In short, I don’t trade Forex because of the lack of transparency and a centralized exchange. In my opinion, there is simply too much potential for manipulation of bid/ask quotes, front running, and outright fraud. Currently the Forex industry leads security related scams by a wide margin, even though it is a small portion of the total day trading aggregate.

      To summarize, the Forex industry has great potential to become a legitimate and profitable day trading option. In my opinion, the industry must institute strict regulation before its legitimacy can be truly realized. I think that in time all of the above addressed the problems will be rectified, but until there is true transparency in the Forex industry I believe I will abstain from participating. We have identified problems like over leverage, lack of registration, and the absence of a centralized exchange as problem areas in the Forex industry. Until these problems are addressed, I don’t think the Forex industry will reach its full potential.

      Real Live Trading Doesn’t Lie. Spend several days in my trading room and see if you can benefit from a fresh and unique view on trading e-mini contracts. Sign up for your free trading experience by clicking here.

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        E-Mini Trading: Finding High Probability Setups

        By , 15 July, 2011, No Comment

        A quick scan of any of the popular online bookstores will produce a plethora of writers who claim to have a distinct set of high probability e-mini trading setups. For these traders, these setups are probably very successful and profitable. Unfortunately, any of these e-mini trading setups require a sizable software purchase or intricate analysis of candlestick formations. Whether all of these e-mini trading setups are profitable is beyond the scope of this article, but I am interested in presenting some generic setups that have been successful for a wide range of traders.

        I emphasize trading with the trend and rely upon momentum for most of my profitable trades. I find when I trade against the trend, except in a few specific trades, I end up with a marginally profitable or unprofitable e-mini trade. For that reason, I’m going to recommend learning 2 “with the trend” trades and one countertrend trade that I have found to be reliable in my personal trading.

        These traits include:

        • Breakout and breakdown trades in and around areas of support/resistance
        • Entering a trade in the trend after a retracement
        • The Ambush Trade

        Breakdown Trades in and around Areas of Support/Resistance

        I probably don’t trade is often as some e-mini traders because I don’t feel there aren’t that many high probability setups available each day. But one of my favorite setups is at the open of the session and there is a support/resistance line in the proximity of the direction of the markets initial move. I will generally set a buy stop or sell stop 4 or 5 ticks above or below the resistance or support and wait for the price to come to my entry. I pay special attention to volume in this trade and like to see increasing volume is the price nears the support resistance line. Sheer momentum will often carry a price action 10 to 12 ticks past my entry for a nice stop. Often times, there is a great deal of institutional and professional trading volume in these moves and they are very successful.

        Entering a Trade in the Trend after a Retracement

        During the course of a trend it is common, almost probable, that the trending action will take a short break and retrace some of the ground it has gained. This makes sense, as at some point e-mini traders will begin to take profits and the trend will take a temporary sideways or downward break. Depending upon which author you care to read, the trend resumes about 70% or 80% of the time. So, as the retracement in a trend begins to wane, it is an ideal time to reenter the market in the direction of the trend and ride the second leg of the trend for a profit. I would say that this is probably the most common trade I take on a daily basis and it has a high degree of success.

        The Ambush Trade

        The ambush trade is one of the few countertrend e-mini trades that I truly have a high degree of confidence in initiating. With this trade the e-mini trader can draw a Fibonacci continuum on graph and wait until the countertrend retracement reaches between 50% and 62%. There is a high probability in this zone, commonly referred to as the ambush zone that the market will once again resume in the direction of the trend. This is a trade I take routinely when the price action has reached 55% of the entire length of the trend as measured by the Fibonacci retracement path.

        A quick note here about probability is in order; because there is no such thing in will trading is a guaranteed trade. Every trade has a higher or lower probability of succeeding or failing. (Though it is hard to measure empirically) Even the best setups can fail miserably and disappoint. This does not, however, deter me from taking the same trade should I see it set up again. I understand probability, and even the best setups have a certain component of failure and their probability.

        In summary, we have looked at two “with the trend” trades and identified the conditions that need to be present for them to have the highest potential for success. We have also looked at one “against the trend” trade that has a high potential for success. Since trading is based on probability, we know that even the best setups have the potential for failure and except that is a part of and e-mini trader’s mentality.

        Real Live Trading Doesn’t Lie. Spend several days in my trading room and see if you can benefit from a fresh and unique view on trading e-mini contracts. Sign up for your free trading experience by clicking here.

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          10 straight days of winning trades!

          By , 16 April, 2011, No Comment

          Dear Friend,

          The train just keeps rolling alone. Though I can’t claim I win
          every day, the trading has been especially profitable and consistent.

          Isn’t time you started adding some extra income in your pocket?

          It can be done…I’ve helped dozens of students become successful.

          THERE IS AN ACTUAL LIVE TRADE ON THIS VIDEO

          Watch the video at the URL below and sign up for a free trial.



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          Weekly Summary from Live Trading Room

          By , 9 April, 2011, No Comment

          This weeks video highlights today’s trading in our live trading room at http://www.learn-to-trade-and-invest.com.  It was a week of light volume, brisk action and erratic price movement.  Just the same, we managed a profitable week.

          Make sure you take the opportunity to sign up for our FREE WEEK trial and see, first hand, my trading style and consistent results.  You can have the same results in your trading with work and study.  I look forward to seeing you in the trading room.   We traded the YM e-mini contract all week with reasonable success.

          Again, I look forward to seeing you in the trading room and believe you will find our e-mini trading style understandable and coherent.

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          More E-Mini Trading Setups with Support and Resistance

          By , 24 February, 2011, No Comment

          It’s not unusual to see traders using support and resistance to set up potential trades. The most common trade I see among novice investors is a set up that envisions the price action “bouncing” off an existing support or resistance lines. There are many versions of this particular trade, and it is not unusual to see small investors implement this trade over and over. To be sure, using support and resistance lines as potential setups is very common.

          Unlike the trade I described above, where the small traders are looking for a bounce off a support or resistance line, I am looking for a continuation through a support/resistance line. This makes sense at several levels. First and foremost, I’m a trend oriented trader and dislike trading against the trend. By definition, any bounce off a support or resistance line would entail a move against an existing trend, which is something I avoid, especially in a strong trend. Secondly, in order for the price action to move through a support or resistance line it takes a medium, at the least, and usually a strong push to pierce the line. Inevitably, this strong push creates excess momentum which is carried through for 10 or 15 additional ticks, and those additional ticks are the prize I am seeking to capture. This set up usually results in a very violent and short trade, as the momentum pushes the price upward or downward at a high rate of speed. It is an exciting trade to watch and even more exciting to initiate.

          When setting this particular trade up, I generally look for a strong support/resistance line that will intersect an established trend line. As an aside, I tend to prefer to take this trade to the short side as the market tends to move faster when heading downward. This can be attributed to panic selling, or long traders bailing out of short positions as the price action moves against them. In any event, I position my entry three or four points below the support/resistance line and wait for the price to come to me. Needless to say, it is never a good idea to chase the price action and it is rare for me to initiate a market order. I want to enter a trade at a point of my own choosing where I think I have the best chance of profiting.

          Once you become accustomed to spotting the set up, you’ll find it occurs two to three times daily. The trade is relatively reliable if it occurs in a trending market, and the trend does not necessarily have to be a strong one. On the other hand, I would avoid taking this trade when the market is in a well defined channel. Breakouts or breakdowns out of channel formations are generally unreliable and typically fail. False breakouts from a channel formation look very enticing from the onset, but after moving three or four ticks in your favor they tend to retreat back into the channel. Once in the channel, it is anyone’s guess where the price action may go as movement inside the channel is random, at best.

          In summary, we have looked at a trade using support/resistance lines. Instead of looking for a bounce off these lines, we have outlined a straight that entails a continuation of a trend through known support/resistance. We have noted that this trade is reliable when used in conjunction with a trending market, further we have cautioned against taking a straight out of very well-established channel.

          Real Live Trading Doesn’t Lie. Spend several days in my trading room and see if you can benefit from a fresh and unique view on trading e-mini contracts. Sign up for your free trading experience by clicking here.

          Day Trading the ES E-mini and Defining the Trend

          By , 15 July, 2010, No Comment

          The term “trend” is bandied about with fierce regularity among traders of all types. Long-term traders look at trends in a far different perspective than short-term e-mini day trading. Which leaves most traders, especially novice day traders, in a quandary. In general, a market trend is the tendency of the market to move in one direction for a period of time. I think that’s where most e-mini day trading become confused, as the “period of time” is a variable of many dimensions.

          ltra-long term market trends can be measured in periods of 5 to 20 years. On the other hand, a day trader may look at a trend in terms of hours. With all this diversity in the period of time it takes to establish a trend it is often difficult to specifically define what qualifies as a trend.

          Before we go much further, I think it is important to understand that in the academic world there is no trend. The current theory being taught, Efficient Market Theory, claims that equity pricing always discounts all known factors into the current price of the equity in question. That being said, there is no room for the term trend in efficient market theory because each price properly equates the value of an equity any given time. To take this to the point of ridiculousness, Efficient Market Theory would have to accept the notion that a given equity increases in price and value, at least intrinsic value, from minute to minute. Of course, recent financial calamities in the markets have led to no small amount of skepticism among traders and Efficient Market Theory. I would also note that traders, as a whole, have never embraced Efficient Market Theory.

          For intraday trading, which is really no more than trading during a daily trading session, we need to devise a workable definition to define the term trend. Depending on which book you care to read, most economists and financial authors claim that the market trends between 30 and 40% of the time. The remainder of the time the market is involved in normal backing and filling operations. I define these backing and filling operations as market noise and tend to avoid trading during these periods. Another more workable definition for non-trending markets, at least in the system I trade, is time the market spends wandering between the +100 and -100 lines on the Commodity Channel Index. While this definition may seem a little technical, it is fairly accurate. Hence, I seldom initiate trades when the market price action is in the area between +100 and -100.

          Another handy definition can be found using the NYSE tick indicator. I use a similar methodology with the NYSE tick indicator, and consider any market movement between +400 and -400 market noise. Just like that Commodity Channel Index, I see to avoid making any trades during these periods of market noise, or normal backing and filling operation of the market.

          There is some misconception about what a trend looks like on a chart. Many new traders expect a trend to be a straight line up for down (depending on whether he you are considering long or short trades). But any trend will go through periods of retracement in the course of a normal trend. Often times, Fibonacci analysis is used to calculate the strength of the retracement, though it is not necessarily imperative. My point here is a simple one; the market will advance for a period of time, and then retrace its advancement for while, sometimes up to 50% or more of the initial advance, then resume trading in the direction of the original trend. The resulting price action line on the chart resembles a serpentine pattern in definite direction. Trends seldom move in an absolute straight line, though euphoric buying and panic selling can create a spike that moves straight up or down. In my opinion, spikes in the market cannot be defined as trends as they are usually the result of some unusual market activity, world catastrophe or political unrest.

          So we have come up with some finite definitions to define market noise and trend. A trend will move in one direction in a serpentine pattern, while backing and filling operations usually indicate a consolidating pattern in the market where the price action tends to stay in a narrowly defined channel. We also have noted that trends can mean a variety of things to different traders or investors, and the term “time period” is essential to understand as it relates to trends. Trends can be as long as 25 years and as short as an hour. The term trend is closely related in definition to the style of trading each trader employs.

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