Archive for ‘economic reports’

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 6 December, 2009, No Comment

As would be expected, much better-than-expected numbers for the November employment situation sent equities up sharply early in the day on Friday. But by close, stocks had come down significantly as many traders simply worried that equities have gotten too far ahead of economic conditions. Also, the dollar jumped on the release of the jobs report and weighed on materials and energy sectors. Still, for the day and week, most indexes posted moderate to sizeable gains.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 30 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 12/01/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1100.33 1105.92 1092.42 1086.83 1078.92

Fed and Fed Agency Announcement

Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
[Report][Star]10:00 AM ET

Charles Plosser Speaks
12:20 PM ET

In depth Consensus Reports

Motor Vehicle Sales
Released on 12/1/2009 For Nov, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Domestic Vehicle Sales 7.9 M 7.75 M 7.50 M to 8.00 M

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales of domestic light motor vehicles in October rebounded 17.2 percent to 7.8 million units as sales returned to normal-at least for the current recovery. Combined sales of domestics and imports in rose to a 10.5 million annualized unit rate from 9.2 million in September. Now that the monthly swings from cash-for-clunkers have been wrung out from the data, November will stand out as a possibly true measure of the strength of demand for motor vehicles and of the viability of the consumer sector to a large degree

ISM Mfg Index
Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
ISM Mfg Index – Level 55.7 55.0 53.8  to 56.0

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey jumped more than 3 points in October to 55.7. This is the strongest for this index in more than three years. Showing the most improvement of the composite’s components was the production index which advanced over 7-1/2 points to 63.3. But we may see some leveling off in the composite index in November as the new orders index eased from 60.8 in September to 58.5 in October, but still remained well in positive territory. Price increases were steady in the month, showing little change at 65.0 compared to 63.5 in September.

Construction Spending
Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Construction Spending – M/M change 0.8 % -0.4 % -1.5 % to 0.3 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Construction spending was sharply higher than expected for September but a large downward revision to August was essentially offsetting. Overall construction spending advanced 0.8 percent in September after slipping a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in August. The decrease in August was now significantly lower than the original estimate of a 0.8 percent gain. The boost in spending in September was led by a 3.8 percent surge in private residential outlays. Private nonresidential declined 1.8 percent and public outlays decreased 0.1 percent in the latest month.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Anouncements-Commentary

By , 29 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/30/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1102.83 1116.17 1084.92 1071.58 1053.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Chicago PMI
[Report][Bullet9:45 AM ET
Farm Prices
[Bullet3:00 PM ET

Chicago PMI
Released on 11/30/2009 9:45:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Business Barometer Index – Level 54.2 53.0 50.8  to 55.5

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Chicago PMI jumped more than 8 points in October to 54.2. For the month, production surged nearly 17 points. We may see further improvement in November as the new orders index jumped more than 15 points.
Definition
The Institute of Supply Management – Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey is conducted by Kingsbury International, LTD. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 25 November, 2009, No Comment

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index for early November fell back a very steep 4.6 points to a very weak 66.0. Weakness was split between current conditions and the outlook. The retreat in confidence was tied to the still contracting jobs market.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 16 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/16/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1097.42 1103.33 1090.08 1084.17 1076.83

Fed and Agency Announcement

Retail Sales
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
12:00 PM ET

We had some decent reports today and the market is off to the races.  Let’s see what Big Ben has to say later today. I have no doubt we will be treated to glowing reports and rosy prognostications.  Still, it just doesn’t feel good.

ES Emini: Pivot and Fed Announcements, Commentary.

By , 8 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/09/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1072.67 1079.08 1063.08 1056.67 1047.08

Fed and Agency Announcements

Monday’s Pivot info is above.
Not a whole lot relevant of day trading info on Monday, with the exception of some bill and note auctions.  All sorts of chatter on the ES Emini day trading chat boards, the doom and gloom crowd is out in force, and with good reason, though there is an infinite realm of political and economic possibilities.  I can’t say I fully understand the market of late, and I am thankful I am a scalper so I don’t have to try to pick the market direction.  I have not the slightest idea which way we are headed.
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Daily Pivot and Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

By , 4 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/04/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1041.83 1042.42 1041.42 1040.83 1040.42
ISM Non-Mfg Index
[Report][Bullet10:00 AM ET

Daily Pivot and Fed Economic Data for Monday

By , 1 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/02/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1054.00 1075.00 1041.75 1020.75 1008.50

Federal Agency Announcements and Economic Data

ISM Mfg Index
[Report][Star]10:00 AM ET

Daniel Tarullo Speaks
10:30 AM ET

ISM Mfg Index Consensus

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index was little changed in September at 52.6 from August’s 52.9. Importantly, it was still over 50, indicating that more purchasers are reporting expansion rather than contraction. The new orders softened a bit in September, but remained very positive and strong at 60.8—down from 64.9 in August. Prices paid continue to show upward pressure, coming in at 63.5 and down only marginally from 65.0 the prior month.

Construction Spending Consensus

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Construction spending rebounded 0.8 percent in August after declining 1.1 percent in July. The boost in spending in August was led by a 4.7 percent jump in private residential outlays. In contrast, private nonresidential slipped 0.1 percent and public outlays dropped 1.1 percent in August. Looking ahead, based on the recent uptrend in housing starts (up in four of the last five months), the private residential component for outlays will likely post a gain for September. But high vacancy rates weigh on the nonresidential component as does state & local government revenue declines on public outlays.

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