The Fractal Futures Trader » emini chart

This trade didn’t go exactly as I planned

trader7757 — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 12:08:07 +0000

I thought that this might be a good video to watch as I had to scramble a bit to salvage a gain from the trade. The darn thing almost stopped out for a gain three of four times but stopped one tick short. I finally had to move my stop up to 7 ticks as the market started to consolidate and I worried that the trade would go south. It was a pretty interesting trade and I actually had to think a little as the trade played out. Did I do the right thing? Let me know what you think.

ES Emini Day Trading: Detailed Trading Chart for Thurs

trader7757 — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:32:55 +0000

Chart and info courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade. Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service. He does a great job.

ES Emini Day Trading for Dec. 17, 2009

detailed trading ES Emini chart for Dec 17

ESh9 December 17, 2009

Pretty interesting day to day trade the ES Emini contract. I didn’t have a losing trade, which is unusual for me. I purposely left out one trade I should have taken, and you will notice that I bailed on two trades long before they had finished. All in all a good day, though much of the later trading was very tedious and slow developing. Tedious and slow developing is not something I am particularly adept at enduring, so that may have contributed to be over anxious to exit my trades.

Also notice, especially toward the end of the day, the market began some significant whipshawing, which is unnerving to trade, at least for me it is unnerving. Of course, if it were easy everyone would be doing it. Any way, the market seemed to lose it’s sense of direction as time went on and the trend was a bit helter skelter.

I endorse a state of the art trading program for beginners at Trading Concepts, Inc It’s an awesome product that will have you well on your way to success. Plus, it has a money back guarantee…you have nothing to lose and thousands to gain.

ES Emini Day Trading: Charting Software

trader7757 — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 03:35:47 +0000

Every trader has preference for a software charting package, and their are multitudes of software packages out there from which to choose. A good charting software package should have an excellent feature set (which we will get to later) and a history of reliability.

(Note: I have no financial relationships with any particular charting software packages and my comments are for instructional and informational purposes only)

I believe the first variable to consider when choosing a charting package is the quality of the data feed that supplies the raw data for the charting software to operate. Many of the current data feeds are based upon antiquated 1990‘s style technology and do not render data as some of the more modern feeds. Now, let me tell you that no broker is going to admit that they are using an inferior data feed, you are going to have to do the research for yourself. There is a wealth of information on Google critiquing data feeds and I invite you to do your research to determine which ones are up to your standards. Of course, I have my favorite and will mention that choice at the end of this article.

It goes without saying that you are going to need a real-time feed to trade as opposed to the horde of 15 minute delayed feeds out there. If you are fifteen minutes behind the market, well, you are fifteen minutes behind what is really occurring on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. I know of no methodology to trade a fifteen minute feed effectively, you are simply in left field without real time quotes. And that’s where the data feed issue comes into play. The question that is in constant dispute is how fast does real time data translate to movement on your chart. It’s usually measured in nanoseconds. The reason for all this concern is a slow feed will get you out of a trade late, especially on a closely timed trade, or can be the culprit in slippage, which is a situation where you place and order at a certain price and you don’t get filled at the price chosen.
Traders detest slippage in their accounts.

The next variable traders evaluate in a software charting package is the variety of options available to assist them in their trading. All software packages should have a full compliment of common indicators and you should be able to adjust those indicators to your own specifications. I also like my charting software to have the ability to be programmed with some of the proprietary indicators I have developed myself. A software charting package with just a few indicators is of little value to a serious trader.

I like my chart to layout in a certain fashion, and I want my software to have the ability to allow me to layout my charts in the manner I feel comfortable. Some packages do not have this ability, as they have a standard layout you have to live with. I won’t use such a program.

Finally, and most importantly, does the charting software have an effective customer service department. One of the cheapest charting software programs, and it is of good quality, has zero customer service. Basically, if have problems, it’s like communicating with someone in a black hole. Who know when you will get an answer, or if you will get an answer?

I suppose you are wondering which package I use, so I will tell you. I am very fond of Ninja Trader and using the Zen-fire data feed. I have had a wonderful relationship with this program and highly recommend it.

Other good programs, in no particular order:

1. TradeStation
2. ESignal
3 Multi-Charts
4. Sierra Charts

You usually can get a 30 day free trial with charting programs and I encourage you to take advantage of that offer to see if you are comfortable with the chart layout and features.

ES Emini Day Trading Video: Using CCI and Fractals for Position Entries

trader7757 — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 15:11:29 +0000

ES Emini Day Trading: Detailed Video showing Trades

trader7757 — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:24:15 +0000

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

trader7757 — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:04:57 +0000

ESZ9
For 12/04/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1110.83	1123.67	1104.17	1091.33	1084.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
12:00 PM ET

Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET

Consensus Highlights

Consumer Credit

Released on 12/7/2009 3:00:00 PM For October, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Consumer Credit – M/M change	$-14.8 B	$-8.8 B	$-9.5 B to $-5.5 B

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer credit outstanding fell $14.8 billion in September to extend a long run of declines. Revolving credit, mostly credit cards, fell $9.9 billion with non-revolving, mostly car loans, down $4.9 billion. Consumer credit likely will continue to contract in October but a rebound in auto sales for the month probably will boost the non-revolving components and soften the overall decline

Market Overview

The Fed closed six banks on Friday, though I think the market will shrug this information of off as part of the recovery process. On the other hand, Economic news was mixed on Thursday even though a surprisingly sharp drop in the level of initial jobless claims boosted stocks initially. The initial euphoria was damped by a fall in the ISM non-manufacturing index below the breakeven mark. Late in the day, Bank of America weighed on financials with its huge equity offering—spurring concern that other banks might do the same.

As would be expected, much better-than-expected numbers for the November employment situation sent equities up sharply early in the day on Friday. But by close, stocks had come down significantly as many traders simply worried that equities have gotten too far ahead of economic conditions. Also, the dollar jumped on the release of the jobs report and weighed on materials and energy sectors. Still, for the day and week, most indexes posted moderate to sizeable gains.

Equities were up this past week. The Dow was up 0.8 percent; the S&P 500, up 1.3 percent; the Nasdaq, up 2.6 percent; and the Russell 2000, up 4.4 percent.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

trader7757 — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:14:33 +0000

Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade. Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service. He does a great job.

ESZ9
For 12/04/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1110.83	1123.67	1104.17	1091.33	1084.67

Fed and Agency Announcements

Barack Obama Speaks

Chain Store Sales

Monster Employment Index

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET

ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

3-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET

10-Yr Note Announcement
11:00 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Announcement
11:00 AM ET

Eric Rosengren Speaks
12:30 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Pertinent Consensus Analysis

Jobless Claims

Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/28, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims – Level	466 K	485 K	471 K to 495 K	457 K
4-week Moving Average – Level	496.5 K			481.25 K

Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the Nov. 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement that points squarely at improvement for total payrolls (prior week revised 4,000 lower). The four-week week average is lagging despite falling 14,250 in the week to 481,250. Continuing claims for the Nov. 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent. The slight gain in continuing claims hardly puts a dent into 10 prior weeks of improvement, improvement reflecting new hiring but also, and likely to a large degree, the expiration of benefits. Those receiving extended benefits rose nearly 60,000 to just under 600,000 in data for the Nov. 14 week. Markets moved higher but only briefly in reaction to the report, one that will firm expectations for solid improvement in tomorrow’s November employment report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 35,000 in the November 21 week to 466,000. With the four-week average also breaking below 500,000, down 16,500 to 496,500, the latest numbers indicate that companies have reduced the pace of printing pink slips. This may be the early beginnings of recovery in the labor market. But most economists believe that the return to normalcy will be extremely slow. Continuing claims also fell in the latest week, down 190,000 to 5.423 million in data for the November 14 week, but the change also reflects the expiration of benefits.

Productivity and Costs

Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm productivity – Q/Q change – SAAR	9.5 %	8.5 %	8.5 % to 8.8 %	8.1 %
Unit labor costs – Q/Q change – SAAR	-5.2 %	-4.2 %	-4.5 % to -4.0 %	-2.5 %

Highlights
Productivity in the second quarter was revised down with the Labor Department’s second estimate for the quarter. Third quarter productivity was revised to an annualized 8.1 percent surge from the initial estimate of a 9.5 percent boost. The market consensus had expected a revision to an 8.5 percent increase. Unit labor costs were revised up somewhat (less negative) to an annualized decline of 2.5 percent, compared to the original estimate of a 5.2 percent fall. The consensus estimate was for a 4.2 percent decline.

The downward revision to productivity was primarily due to a downward revision to growth of third quarter output in the nonfarm business sector-to 2.9 percent annualized from the initial 4.0 percent. Unit labor costs were revised up based on the lower growth in output and higher compensation estimates. Compensation growth was revised up to an annualized 5.4 percent from the initial third quarter number of 3.8 percent growth. Hours worked were little revised.

Year-on-year, productivity rose to up 4.0 percent in the third quarter from 1.9 percent in the second quarter. Year-ago unit labor costs fell to minus 1.4 percent from up 0.3 percent in the second quarter.

Today’s revisions indicated that labor costs are not as weak as previously believed but they are still subdued. The new numbers might have had a negative impact on equities, but the big news is the lower-than-expected jobless claims which boosted equity futures and bond yields.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm productivity in the third quarter surged 9.5 percent annualized, following a revised 6.9 percent boost in the second quarter. This was the largest gain in productivity since the third quarter of 2003, when it rose 9.7 percent. In tandem, unit labor costs dropped an annualized 5.2 percent after declining a revised 6.1 percent in the second quarter. The latest spike in productivity reflected both higher output and fewer hours worked. Looking ahead, we are likely to see a downward revision to third quarter productivity and upward revision to unit labor costs based on the second estimate for GDP growth in the same period. Real GDP was revised down to 2.8 percent from the advance estimate of 3.5 percent. The output component of productivity and unit labor costs is based on much of the same source data as GDP.

Monster Employment Index

Released on 12/3/2009 For November, 2009

	Prior	Actual
Monster Employment Index	120	119

Highlights
The Monster employment index edged down 1 point to 119 in November. Government and healthcare extended several months of weakness. Retail has also been weak. But on the strong side is transportation & warehousing, a group that offers a reading on supply-chain congestion and that may be signaling gains ahead for general economic activity. November’s big U.S. jobs report comes out tomorrow morning with expectations looking for solid improvement.

Chain Store Sales

Highlights
November’s chain-store reports are net positive for the economic outlook. November started off slow, hurt by warm weather, which cut demand for seasonal goods, and by consumer anticipation ahead of Black Friday discounts. The Thanksgiving weekend proved to be very positive for many chains — momentum that points to month-to-month improvement this month. Chain stores report their results in year-on-year terms, and a look back at last year shows that November had a higher base than October (remember October and September were hit by the credit panic). So even though sales rates were a bit weaker, November’s ex-auto ex-gas reading looks to be about flat. Auto sales, based on Tuesday’s unit-sale data, look to be strong while sales at gas stations will get a boost from higher prices and favorable seasonal adjustments. All in all, the retail outlook is favorable in what may be confirmation of improvement underway in the jobs market.

ES Emini Day Trading: Interesting but Unproductive Day Trading

trader7757 — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 03:28:20 +0000

ESZ9, Dec 1, 2009

Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade. Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service. He does a great job.

Day trading and getting whip shawed all day

Today was one of those days where you will swear trading off forever. I also have those days on the golf course, more frequently, I might add, than when I trade.

I started the day off by getting in a nice short trade a little late as I was hesitant to jump into a trade early on in session. As you can see the agreement between the CCI and Stochastic was less than optimal, too. But I jumped in anyway, and ended up with a nice trade.

Then it began…and it really shows the weakness in the system I use. When then is no semblance of even small trends in the market, you tend to get whipshawed. I don’t know how many no gain trades I executed, but there were a slew of them throughout the middle of the day. I should have stopped, but my stubborn nature had me thinking the market might organize a bit better in the afternoon. I finally got a decent long trade, and decided that was good enough

The method of trading I employ works well in even minimally trending market, but when the market is pure chop, I do not perform well. I even looked at some alternative methodology but could not make head or tail of the market action. There will be those days.