Archive for ‘investment news’

Interview with Chris Whalen

By , 6 October, 2009, No Comment

The complete interview can be seen here

From Yahoo Business:

The “Real” Economy Is Dying: Q4 “Going to Be a Bloodbath,” Whalen Says

Posted Oct 05, 2009 01:49pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking

Related: XLF, SKF, FAS, FAZ, MS, GS, HCBK
Stocks rallied to start the week thanks to a better-than-expected ISM services sector report and a Goldman Sachs upgrade of big banks, including Wells Fargo, Comerica and Capital One.But all is not right in either the economy or the banking sector, according to Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics. In fact, Whalen says most observers are drawing the wrong economic conclusions from the stock market’s robust rally.

“Why is liquidity going into the financial sector? It’s because the real economy is dying [and] everyone is fleeing into the stocks and bonds because they’re liquid at the moment,” Whalen says. “That’s not a good sign.”

The banking sector’s assets shrunk by about $300 billion per quarter in the first half of 2009, a sign of banks hoarding cash in anticipation of additional future losses, according to Whalen. “The real economy is shrinking because of a lack of credit.”

The shrinkage will continue into 2010, Whalen predicts, suggesting the banking sector hasn’t yet seen the peak in loan losses. Institutional Risk Analytics forecasts the FDIC will ultimately need $300 billion to $400 billion to recoup losses to its bank insurance fund. (In other words, the $45 billion the FDIC sought to raise last week by asking banks to prepay fees is just a drop in the bucket.)

“Investors should think about this because the fourth quarter in the banking industry is going to be a bloodbath,” says Whalen, who believes smaller and regional banks like Hudson City Bancorp may come into favor vs. larger peers, which have dramatically outperformed since the March lows.

“When you see the markets rallying when the real economy is shrinking that tells you this [recovery] is not going to be very enduring,” Whalen says.

In this regard, Whalen finds himself in philosophical agreement with Nouriel Roubini, George Soros and Meredith Whitney, among other “prophets of the apocalypse” who’ve once again been raising red flags in recent days.

This article is an eye-popper

By , 30 July, 2009, No Comment

Europe’s banking system is in far worse shape than the US. The losses may be bigger, and their capital to meet those losses is certainly less. Europe’s banks have been much more aggressive in funding emerging-market expansion than US or Japanese banks. Western European banks have lent $4.5 trillion to various emerging-market countries, businesses, and consumers.

Todays Pivots

By , 30 July, 2009, No Comment

July 30, 2009

“Bailout” by Merle Hazard…This too funny

By , 27 July, 2009, No Comment

A little change from emini contracts: Let’s look at oil

By , 23 July, 2009, No Comment

People don’t look much at supply and demand these days, and they talk about it even less, but it is good ol’ supply and demand that determines the price of all material in a capitalist society. Oil is no exception, and demand has been off for quite some time, hence, the unusually large amount of surplus in our current supply. To combat this, several oil company economists have issued a few reports that indicate the supply is not nearly as large as is being reported, but my gut instinct is to not trust oil company economists.

Oil Glut? Oil Shortage? Or just plain manipulation?

By , 19 July, 2009, 3 Comments

I wish there were some mechanism to thwart the obvious manipulation of oil prices in the US, short of nationalization (which is, in my opinion, unthinkable). But trusting our oil supply to the likes of Exxon Mobil, Saudi Arabia and the cabal at OPEC is akin to trusting organized pirates, which they are.

Top Fund Manager Goes to Cash: Are the Bears Getting the Upper Hand?

By , 13 July, 2009, No Comment

Dan Sullivan has decided to go 100% cash… and that’s bad news, since Sullivan is not just any adviser.

According to Mark Hurlburt, Sullivan’s newsletter, The Chartist is in first place for stock market timing over the last three decades among those newsletters the Hulbert Financial Digest has tracked over this period. And though his mutual-fund newsletter — The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter — hasn’t been published for all three of those decades, it also is one of the top performers over the years it has existed.

Looks like the bull rally of the last four months is running out of gas.  As a scalper, it means little to me, but I would really like to see the economy improve for the sake of our country.  There have been far to many layoffs and jobs continue to be outsourced to cheaper foreign labor as companies struggle to eek out profits, or minimize loses.

So the bull market has lost a formidable ally.

Signs the Armageddon is near

By , 12 July, 2009, 1 Comment

Wells Fargo is suing itself?

“… I could not resist wondering about Wells Fargo Bank NA, and why it filed a civil complaint against itself in a mortgage foreclosure case in Hillsborough County, Fla.

In this particular case, Wells Fargo holds the first and second mortgages on a condominium, according to Sarasota, Fla., attorney Dan McKillop, who represents the condo owner.

As holder of the first, Wells Fargo is suing all other lien holders, including the holder of the second, which is itself.

… court documents clearly label “Wells Fargo Bank NA” as the plaintiff and “Wells Fargo Bank NA” as a defendant.

Wells Fargo hired Florida Default Law Group., P.L., of Tampa, Fla., to file the lawsuit against itself.

And then Wells Fargo hired another Tampa law firm — Kass, Shuler, Solomon, Spector, Foyle & Singer P.A. — to defend itself against its own lawsuit, according to court documents.

Wells Fargo’s defense lawyers even filed an answer to their client’s own complaint.

“Defendant admits that it is the owner and holder of a mortgage encumbering the subject real property,” the answer reads. “All other allegations of the complaint are denied.”

Yes, we are doomed.

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