Archive for ‘investment news’

What ever happened to common sense?

By , 7 April, 2009, No Comment

Patriotic retirement:

This will cost 40 billion dollars which is much, much, much less
expensive than the trillions proposed now.

There are about 40 million people over 50 in the work force.

Pay them:

$1 million apiece severance with the following stipulations:

1) They leave their jobs. Forty million job openings – Unemployment fixed.

2) They buy NEW American cars. Forty million cars ordered – Auto Industry fixed.

3) They either buy a house or pay off their mortgage – Housing Crisis fixed.

Simple, yes?

From Financial Armageddon, I thought this was funny….

By , 1 April, 2009, No Comment

Financial Armageddon

The Beast Screams to Be Fed

Posted: 01 Apr 2009 04:43 PM PDT

It’s easy to blame the current push for higher taxes on the Democrats. However, the disastrous state of public finances means the effort is truly a bipartisan affair. Indeed, given the damage caused during the past two years by the bursting housing bubble and the accompanying economic collapse, the writing was on the wall even before last November’s elections brought the red team into power in Washington and elsewhere. I am on record as having said as much, when I told TV host Larry “the greatest story never told” Kudlow on air more than a year ago that it didn’t matter who got elected — taxes were headed higher.

I’ve also warned in my books and at Financial Armageddon

that, eventually, there will be increasingly strident citizen revolts against efforts to feed the insatiable government beast. In the meanwhile, though, I expect desperate politicians will dream up all sorts of creative measures designed to keep the money flowing into government coffers as the downturn continues to take its toll on traditional revenue-generating mechanisms. In “Cities and States Plan Strange New Taxes on Pretty Much Everything,”

Fox News offers us a brief sample of what we can expect to see lots more of in the period ahead.

The government is having a hard time making do with the meager trillions you’re throwing their way, so they’re pressing some controversial new customs to buy their way out. Here’s a look at some of the more egregious new taxes you’re sure to be seeing soon.

Behold, America: the taxman cometh.

Even as taxpayers are struggling to make ends meet in a crumbling, tumbling economy, your friendly neighborhood (and state and federal) government is having a hard time making do with the meager trillions you’re throwing its way, so it’s relying on an old maxim:

If it exists, it can be taxed.

New York’s resident grinch, Gov. David Paterson, tried suggesting a kind of omnibus fun-busting budget that would have taxed New Yorkers for skiing, golfing, camping, being fat, being skinny, going to the movies, going to plays, wearing clothing, going to strip clubs and having more than six fingers or toes. The governor, who is up for re-election next year, came to his senses about three weeks ago and renounced the budget, perhaps when an adviser noted that political contributions aren’t tax-deductible.

Things haven’t been all downhill for the taxman, though: some surprising new tariffs, like supersizing the tax on AIG bonuses, have had a measure of popular support, but most are being opposed hand and foot over wallet.

Cigarette taxes are jumping so much on April 1 that it will soon be cheaper to run a tobacco farm than to buy a pack of cigarettes. So as you stockpile your smokes for the coming decade, here’s a look at some of the more egregious new taxes you’ll be seeing soon.

IT’S ELECTRIC
Washington Mayor Adrian Fenty has proposed a slew of new taxes (for taxes are no longer solitary creatures like wolves, but herd together in dangerous slews) to meet his city’s massive deficit. His first target: budget-busting street lights, which Washingtonians will now fund with an extra $51 monthly tax. Bottom line: if you expect to be kept safe from monsters lurking in the District night, it’s really going to cost you.

DO THE MASH
Kentucky is called the state of the “unbridled spirit,” but when a new 6 percent tax hike on booze goes into effect April 1, that slogan might have to change. Lawmakers are going to be taxing their very own Kentucky bourbon, which is, along with Col. Sanders and the Bowie knife, among the greatest contributions of the Bluegrass State. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you.

OLD PROFESSION, NEW FEE
Nevada’s hidebound lawmakers are finally going after prostitution in their state. Well, not really … but one Las Vegas Democrat has proposed a $5 surcharge on all, ummm, transactions, which he says will boost the state’s economy by $2 million. While you finish doing the math on how many rendezvous there are annually in Nevada (answer: a lot), it’s worth noting that most bordellos charge a minimum of about $100 to $200 for their services, and don’t object much to the suggested tax. Five bucks is a paltry thing next to the prices some people are willing to pay in the Silver State.

GET IN AND STAY OUT
Nevada has also raised its so-called bed tax, which isn’t nearly as fun as it sounds. Its 3 percent hike was levied in March on travelers spending the night in Nevada hotels, most of whom end up in Las Vegas. Nevada isn’t alone: nearly half of states have a hotel tax meant to punish suckers foolish enough to leave their own homes, but as more sign on there’s danger of an interstate tax war. Once everyone has imposed a stiff nightly rate, who will be safe from harm?

STRIPPED BARE
Texas led the way in 2007 by levying a $5 tax on patrons of gentlemen’s clubs, exotic dance parlors and all other places where women disrobe for money. Now Florida and New York are among states considering their own “pole taxes,” which have already netted the Lone Stars $11.2 million in revenues. The money was supposed to be used to fund sexual assault services (and no, the irony is not lost on anyone). Only hitch: a Texas judge ruled the tax an unconstitutional infringement of free speech. Yes, stripping is free speech. Let freedom ring.

CASH CROP
Billions of dollars in the hole, California’s legislature is considering a blunt proposal from a San Francisco assemblyman: taxing legalized marijuana sales at $50 an ounce, a move its sponsor thinks could net the state about $1 billion a year. Oregon is considering a similar measure, taxing medical marijuana at nearly $100 an ounce. The taxes could really help excite the states’ economies, even if everything else gets sluggish for a while.

RUNNING ON EMPTY
If you live in America and your name starts with a letter, you’re probably going to be seeing higher gas taxes soon. States and municipalities from Massachusetts to Michigan are planning gas hikes to help rev up their stalling fiscal engines. So any of you planning to travel across state lines to stock up on cigarettes before April 1 had better get on the road fast, before new highway taxes, raised tolls, speeding cameras and apocalyptic moths bar your way for good.

PORNOGRAPHY!
A Washington state representative was beaten back in February when he suggested taxing pornographic materials to save programs that serve the poor and disabled. A noble gesture indeed, which would have taxed adult magazines, adult photographs, adult videos, adult phone services and a few things even adults wouldn’t want to talk about. The flesh lobby (and the rep’s fellow Democrats in the state house) stopped the bill in its tracks, a rare win for anti-tax forces this season. The ACLU opposed the bill, too, arguing that taxing pornography is a tax on free speech. So what happens if you put it on mute?

More from Calculated Risk…it’s not a pretty scenario….

By , 1 April, 2009, No Comment

by CalculatedRisk on 3/31/2009 11:00:00 AM

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. All 50 states are showing declining activity.

This is the new definition of “Red states”.

This is what a widespread recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

On a one month basis, activity decreased in all 50 states in February. Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for February.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2009. The indexes decreased in all 50 states both for the month and for the past three months (one-month and three-month diffusion indexes of -100).

Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

All states showed declining activity. A widespread recession …

Highlights from Nightly Business Report with Warren Buffet

By , 22 January, 2009, No Comment

SUSIE GHARIB, ANCHOR, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT: Are we overly optimistic about what President Obama can do?

WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY: Well I think if you think that he can turn things around in a month or three months or six months and there’s going to be some magical transformation since he took office on the 20th that can’t happen and wouldn’t happen. So you don’t want to get into Superman-type expectations. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s anybody better than you could have had; have in the presidency than Barack Obama at this time. He understands economics. He’s a very smart guy. He’s a cool rational-type thinker. He will work with the right kind of people. So you’ve got the right person in the operating room, but it doesn’t mean the patient is going to leave the hospital tomorrow….

SG: But I know that during the election that you were one of his economic advisors, what were you telling him?

WB: I was telling him business was going to be awful during the election period and that we were coming up in November to a terrible economic scene which would be even worse probably when he got inaugurated. So far I’ve been either lucky or right on that. But he’s got the right ideas. He believes in the same things I believe in. America ’s best days are ahead and that we’ve got a great economic machine, its sputtering now. And he believes there could be a more equitable job done in distributing the rewards of this great machine. But he doesn’t need my advice on anything….

SG: What’s the most important thing you think he needs to fix?

WB: Well the most important thing to fix right now is the economy. We have a business slowdown particularly after October 1st it was sort of on a glide path downward up til roughly October 1st and then it went into a real nosedive. In fact in September I said we were in an economic Pearl Harbor and I’ve never used that phrase before. So he really has a tough economic situation and that’s his number one job. Now his number one job always is to keep America safe that goes without saying.

SG: But when you look at the economy, what do you think is the most important thing he needs to fix in the economy?

WB: Well we’ve had to get the credit system partially fixed in order for the economy to have a chance of starting to turn around. But there’s no magic bullet on this. They’re going to throw everything from the government they can in. As I said, the Treasury is going all in, the Fed and they have to and that isn’t necessarily going to produce anything dramatic in the short term at all. Over time the American economy is going to work fine.

SG: There is considerable debate as you know about whether President Obama is taking the right steps so we don’t get in this kind of economic mess again, where do you stand on that debate?

WB: Well I don’t think the worry right now should be about the next one, the worry should be about the present one. Let’s get this fire out and then we’ll figure out fire prevention for the future. But really the important thing to do now is to figure out how we get the American economy restarted and that’s not going to be easy and its not going to be soon, but its going to get done.

SG: But there is debate about whether there should be fiscal stimulus, whether tax cuts work or not. There is all of this academic debate among economists. What do you think? Is that the right way to go with stimulus and tax cuts?

WB: The answer is nobody knows. The economists don’t know. All you know is you throw everything at it and whether it’s more effective if you’re fighting a fire to be concentrating the water flow on this part or that part. You’re going to use every weapon you have in fighting it. And people, they do not know exactly what the effects are. Economists like to talk about it, but in the end they’ve been very, very wrong and most of them in recent years on this. We don’t know the perfect answers on it. What we do know is to stand by and do nothing is a terrible mistake or to follow Hoover-like policies would be a mistake and we don’t know how effective in the short run we don’t know how effective this will be and how quickly things will right themselves. We do know over time the American machine works wonderfully and it will work wonderfully again.

SG: But are we creating new problems?

WB: Always

You owe it to yourself to watch this movie……

By , 24 December, 2008, No Comment

Our national debt and fiscal irresponsibility is inexcusable.

Another week of tough news

By , 15 December, 2008, No Comment

The market is off early this morning, as the economic news streaming from our government has been pretty dismal. The manufacturing reports this morning confirmed the manufacturing segment of our economy remains tattered and in a shambles, as inventories pile up and new orders vanish. The week should be one where more negative news will be the norm…of course, that does not necessarily mean the market will head south, as the traders have shown an appetite for equities of late, despite the bad news.

I would also like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and hope next year will profitable for us as we match wits with the markets. All the best….

Some Random News that the Market doesn’t seem to think is too important

By , 12 December, 2008, No Comment

The Census Bureau reports that retail sales collapsed in October:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $355.7 billion, a decrease of 1.8 percent from the previous month and 7.4 percent below November 2007.

Total sales for the September through November 2008 period were down 4.5 percent from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2008 percent change was revised from -2.8 percent to -2.9 percent. Retail trade sales were down 2.0 percent from October 2008 and were 8.5 percent below last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 25.2 percent from November 2007 and gasoline stations sales were down 22.0 percent from last year.

The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993. Click on graph for larger image in new window.To calculate the real change, the monthly PCE price index from the BEA was used (November PCE prices was estimated as the same as October).

Although the Census Bureau reported that nominal retail sales decreased 8.4% year-over-year (retail and food services decreased 7.4%), real retail sales declined by 10.1% (on a YoY basis). This is the largest YoY decline since the Census Bureau started keeping data.Retail sales are a key portion of consumer spending and real retail sales have fallen off a cliff.

Courtesy of Calculated Risk

————————————————————————-
SEC Charges Bernard L. Madoff for Multi-Billion Dollar Ponzi Scheme
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE2008-293
Washington, D.C., Dec. 11, 2008 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Bernard L. Madoff and his investment firm, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC, with securities fraud for a multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme that he perpetrated on advisory clients of his firm. The SEC is seeking emergency relief for investors, including an asset freeze and the appointment of a receiver for the firm.
The SEC’s complaint, filed in federal court in Manhattan, alleges that Madoff yesterday informed two senior employees that his investment advisory business was a fraud. Madoff told these employees that he was “finished,” that he had “absolutely nothing,” that “it’s all just one big lie,” and that it was “basically, a giant Ponzi scheme.” The senior employees understood him to be saying that he had for years been paying returns to certain investors out of the principal received from other, different investors. Madoff admitted in this conversation that the firm was insolvent and had been for years, and that he estimated the losses from this fraud were at least $50 billion.SEC Charges Bernard L. Madoff for Multi-Billion Dollar Ponzi Scheme

From Financial Armageddon Blog

By , 9 December, 2008, No Comment

Financial Armageddon

Less than Optimistic

Posted: 08 Dec 2008 07:29 PM CST

Analysts naturally factor in the number of people who are out of work when they try to figure out future consumption patterns. But there is more to it, of course. People who are afraid they might lose their job are just as likely to economize or clamp down on spending as those who have no real choice in the matter. In fact, some might say that changes in the attitudes and behavior of the 85-95 percent (depending on which statistics you believe) of those who are employed matter much more than the financial wherewithal of those who aren’t. Under the circumstances, the following Reuters report, “More Americans Worried About Jobs,”

offers little reason for optimism.

One-third of U.S. consumers are worried about their jobs, a growing number that should be the latest sign of concern for retailers during the key holiday shopping season, a consumer research firm said.

“Job security (concern) is the only thing that will shut a customer down from shopping,” Britt Beemer, founder and chief executive of America’s Research Group, said.

In questions asked for Reuters as part of a larger survey, 33.6 percent of respondents said they were concerned about job security. That number is up from about 24 percent a month ago when a similar question was asked, and up from about 3 percent last year, Beemer said.

The survey was conducted just after the Labor Department announced that U.S. employers cut 533,000 jobs in November, the most since 1974.

Retailers are in the midst of what some experts see as the worst holiday season in nearly two decades, as job losses, the credit crunch and falling home prices all push consumers to keep their wallets shut.

In the America’s Research survey, 25.4 percent said they had already completed their holiday shopping, compared with only about 18 percent to 19 percent who were finished at this point last year, Beemer said.

“That’s not good for retailers,” he said.

Also, 24.3 percent said that the stock market’s declines were impacting their ability to spend. That was up from 16 percent who answered a similar question a month ago, Beemer said.

U.S. retailers have already seen the impact of weak spending. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 2.1 percent on average in November, according to Thomson Reuters data. That number fell to a 7.8 percent decline when Wal-Mart Stores Inc was excluded.

Wal-Mart has been the winning retailer so far this season, attracting consumers with low prices on many items.

According to the survey, 9.3 percent said they shopped at Wal-Mart for the first time this year.

Of those, a whopping 98.9 percent said they would shop there again and the same number said they would continue to shop there once the recession ends.

“We’re now watching a retailer take over the Christmas shopping season,” Beemer said.

In other results, 41 percent said that they feel more guilty about spending money when others are struggling more this year and 38.6 percent said they were waiting until closer to Christmas to get better deals.

The survey included 1,000 people and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.

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