The Fractal Futures Trader » paper trade a demo account http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress Learn to Make $500-1000 a Day Trading the E-mini Contracts Sun, 01 Jan 2012 19:53:15 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-13/ http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-13/#comments Tue, 29 Dec 2009 06:41:27 +0000 trader7757 http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1174 Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade. Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service. He does a great job.

ESH0
For 12/29/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESH0 1123.00 1123.50 1122.75 1122.25 1122.00

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET

C

5-Yr Note Auction
[Bullet1:00 PM ET

Consensus Analysis

Consumer Confidence
Released on 12/29/2009 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2008
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Consumer Confidence – Level 49.5 53.0 50.0  to 55.0

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in November rose slightly to 49.5 from 48.7 the prior month but still disappointing compared to the recent high of 54.5 in August. The expectations index has come down in recent months while the present situation index remains near record lows.

I endorse a state of the art trading program for beginners at Trading Concepts, Inc It’s an awesome product that will have you well on your way to trading success. Plus, it has a money back guarantee…you have nothing to lose and thousands to gain.

]]> http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-13/feed/ 0 ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-12/ http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-12/#comments Wed, 23 Dec 2009 03:58:16 +0000 trader7757 http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1159 Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade. Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service. He does a great job.

ESH0
For 12/23/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESH0 1115.50 1122.75 1106.00 1098.75 1089.25

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

New Home Sales
[Report][Star]10:00 AM ET

7-Yr Note Announcement
[Bullet11:00 AM ET

Consensus Reports

Personal Income and Outlays
Released on 12/23/2009 8:30:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Personal Income – M/M change 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.7 %
Consumer Spending – M/M change 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.4 % to 0.9 %
Core PCE price index – M/M change 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.0 % to 0.1 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Personal income in October edged up 0.2 percent, matching a 0.2 percent rise in September. The important wages and salaries component, however, was flat after a 0.1 percent dip in September. Personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.7 percent after a 0.6 percent drop in September. The rebound reflected a comeback in auto sales after the post-clunkers drop off in September. Headline PCE price inflation rose to 0.3 percent from a 0.1 percent rise in September. Core PCE inflation edged up to 0.2 percent in October from 0.1 percent the month before. Looking ahead, we should get some improvement in personal income-or rather at least in wages & salaries as aggregate payroll earnings rebounded 0.7 percent in November. PCEs growth should be healthy as retails sales excluding autos were up 1.2 percent for November and unit new motor vehicles sales advanced 4.5 percent. PCE inflation numbers should be mixed, closely tracking November’s CPI headline and core inflation numbers of up 0.4 percent and flat, respectively.

Consumer Sentiment
Released on 12/23/2009 9:55:00 AM For December, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Sentiment Index – Level 73.4 73.5 72.0  to 74.0

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index for mid-month December jumped to 73.4 from 67.4 for the November final estimate. The latest gain was led by a spurt in the current economic conditions index-to 79.1 from 68.8 in November. The expectations index improved, but only slightly-to 69.7 from 66.5 the prior month. Inflation expectations for one year out dipped 6 tenths to 2.1 percent and for five years out declined 4 tenths to 2.6 percent

New Home Sales
Released on 12/23/2009 10:00:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
New Home Sales – Level – SAAR 430 K 440 K 415 K to 460 K

Market Consensus Before Announcement
New home sales jumped 6.2 percent in October to a much higher-than-expected annual rate of 430,000. Supply was very low, the result of improving sales. Only 239,000 new homes were on the market in October in what was the lowest number going all the way back to 1971. Supply at the current sales rate fell to 6.7 months, compared to September’s 7.4 months and compared with 11.1 months a year ago.

I endorse a state of the art trading program for beginners at Trading Concepts, Inc It’s an awesome product that will have you well on your way to trading success. Plus, it has a money back guarantee…you have nothing to lose and thousands to gain.

]]> http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-12/feed/ 0 ES Emini Day Trading: Detailed Trading Chart for Thurs http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-detailed-trading-chart-for-thurs/ http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-detailed-trading-chart-for-thurs/#comments Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:32:55 +0000 trader7757 http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1136 Chart and info courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade.  Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service.  He does a great job.

ES Emini Day Trading for Dec. 17, 2009

detailed trading ES Emini chart for Dec 17

detailed trading ES Emini chart for Dec 17

ESh9 December 17, 2009

Pretty interesting day to day trade the ES Emini contract.   I didn’t have a losing trade, which is unusual for me.  I purposely left out one trade I should have taken, and you will notice that I bailed on two trades long before they had finished.  All in all a good day, though much of the later trading was very tedious and slow developing.  Tedious and slow developing is not something I am particularly adept at enduring, so that may have contributed to be over anxious to exit my trades.

Also notice, especially toward the end of the day, the market began some significant whipshawing, which is unnerving to trade, at least for me it is unnerving.  Of course, if it were easy everyone would be doing it.  Any way, the market seemed to lose it’s sense of direction as time went on and the trend was a bit helter skelter.

I endorse a state of the art trading program for beginners at Trading Concepts, Inc It’s an awesome product that will have you well on your way to success. Plus, it has a money back guarantee…you have nothing to lose and thousands to gain.

]]> http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-detailed-trading-chart-for-thurs/feed/ 0 ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-6/ http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-6/#comments Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:14:33 +0000 trader7757 http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1091 Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade. Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service. He does a great job.

ESZ9
For 12/04/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1110.83 1123.67 1104.17 1091.33 1084.67

Fed and Agency Announcements

Barack Obama Speaks

Jobless Claims
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET

ISM Non-Mfg Index
[Report][djStar]10:00 AM ET

Eric Rosengren Speaks
12:30 PM ET

Pertinent Consensus Analysis

Jobless Claims
Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/28, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims – Level 466 K 485 K 471 K to 495 K 457 K
4-week Moving Average – Level 496.5 K 481.25 K

Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the Nov. 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement that points squarely at improvement for total payrolls (prior week revised 4,000 lower). The four-week week average is lagging despite falling 14,250 in the week to 481,250. Continuing claims for the Nov. 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent. The slight gain in continuing claims hardly puts a dent into 10 prior weeks of improvement, improvement reflecting new hiring but also, and likely to a large degree, the expiration of benefits. Those receiving extended benefits rose nearly 60,000 to just under 600,000 in data for the Nov. 14 week. Markets moved higher but only briefly in reaction to the report, one that will firm expectations for solid improvement in tomorrow’s November employment report.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 35,000 in the November 21 week to 466,000. With the four-week average also breaking below 500,000, down 16,500 to 496,500, the latest numbers indicate that companies have reduced the pace of printing pink slips. This may be the early beginnings of recovery in the labor market. But most economists believe that the return to normalcy will be extremely slow. Continuing claims also fell in the latest week, down 190,000 to 5.423 million in data for the November 14 week, but the change also reflects the expiration of benefits.

Productivity and Costs
Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm productivity – Q/Q change – SAAR 9.5 % 8.5 % 8.5 % to 8.8 % 8.1 %
Unit labor costs – Q/Q change – SAAR -5.2 % -4.2 % -4.5 % to -4.0 % -2.5 %

Highlights
Productivity in the second quarter was revised down with the Labor Department’s second estimate for the quarter. Third quarter productivity was revised to an annualized 8.1 percent surge from the initial estimate of a 9.5 percent boost. The market consensus had expected a revision to an 8.5 percent increase. Unit labor costs were revised up somewhat (less negative) to an annualized decline of 2.5 percent, compared to the original estimate of a 5.2 percent fall. The consensus estimate was for a 4.2 percent decline.

The downward revision to productivity was primarily due to a downward revision to growth of third quarter output in the nonfarm business sector-to 2.9 percent annualized from the initial 4.0 percent. Unit labor costs were revised up based on the lower growth in output and higher compensation estimates. Compensation growth was revised up to an annualized 5.4 percent from the initial third quarter number of 3.8 percent growth. Hours worked were little revised.

Year-on-year, productivity rose to up 4.0 percent in the third quarter from 1.9 percent in the second quarter. Year-ago unit labor costs fell to minus 1.4 percent from up 0.3 percent in the second quarter.

Today’s revisions indicated that labor costs are not as weak as previously believed but they are still subdued. The new numbers might have had a negative impact on equities, but the big news is the lower-than-expected jobless claims which boosted equity futures and bond yields.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm productivity in the third quarter surged 9.5 percent annualized, following a revised 6.9 percent boost in the second quarter. This was the largest gain in productivity since the third quarter of 2003, when it rose 9.7 percent. In tandem, unit labor costs dropped an annualized 5.2 percent after declining a revised 6.1 percent in the second quarter. The latest spike in productivity reflected both higher output and fewer hours worked. Looking ahead, we are likely to see a downward revision to third quarter productivity and upward revision to unit labor costs based on the second estimate for GDP growth in the same period. Real GDP was revised down to 2.8 percent from the advance estimate of 3.5 percent. The output component of productivity and unit labor costs is based on much of the same source data as GDP.

Monster Employment Index
Released on 12/3/2009 For November, 2009
Prior Actual
Monster Employment Index 120 119

Highlights
The Monster employment index edged down 1 point to 119 in November. Government and healthcare extended several months of weakness. Retail has also been weak. But on the strong side is transportation & warehousing, a group that offers a reading on supply-chain congestion and that may be signaling gains ahead for general economic activity. November’s big U.S. jobs report comes out tomorrow morning with expectations looking for solid improvement.

Chain Store Sales

Highlights
November’s chain-store reports are net positive for the economic outlook. November started off slow, hurt by warm weather, which cut demand for seasonal goods, and by consumer anticipation ahead of Black Friday discounts. The Thanksgiving weekend proved to be very positive for many chains — momentum that points to month-to-month improvement this month. Chain stores report their results in year-on-year terms, and a look back at last year shows that November had a higher base than October (remember October and September were hit by the credit panic). So even though sales rates were a bit weaker, November’s ex-auto ex-gas reading looks to be about flat. Auto sales, based on Tuesday’s unit-sale data, look to be strong while sales at gas stations will get a boost from higher prices and favorable seasonal adjustments. All in all, the retail outlook is favorable in what may be confirmation of improvement underway in the jobs market.
]]> http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-6/feed/ 0 ES Emini Day Trading: Interesting but Unproductive Day Trading http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-interesting-but-unproductive-day-trading/ http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-interesting-but-unproductive-day-trading/#comments Thu, 03 Dec 2009 03:28:20 +0000 trader7757 http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1087 ESZ9, Dec 1, 2009

Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade.  Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service.  He does a great job.

Day trading and getting whip shawed all day

Day trading and getting whip shawed all day

Today was one of those days where you will swear trading off forever.  I also have those days on the golf course, more frequently, I might add, than when I trade.

I started the day off by getting in a nice short trade a little late as I was hesitant to jump into a trade early on in session.  As you can see the agreement between the CCI and Stochastic was less than optimal, too.  But I jumped in anyway, and ended up with a nice trade.

Then it began…and it really shows the weakness in the system I use.  When then is no semblance of even small trends in the market, you tend to get whipshawed.  I don’t know how many no gain trades I executed, but there were a slew of them throughout the middle of the day.  I should have stopped, but my stubborn nature had me thinking the market might organize a bit better in the afternoon.   I finally got a decent long trade, and decided that was good enough

The method of trading I employ works well in even minimally trending market, but when the market is pure chop, I do not perform well.  I even looked at some alternative methodology but could not make head or tail of the market action.  There will be those days.

]]> http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-interesting-but-unproductive-day-trading/feed/ 0 ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-5/ http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-5/#comments Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:47:35 +0000 trader7757 http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1084 ESZ9
For 12/02/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1116.08 1123.67 1104.17 1096.58 1084.67

Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade. Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service. He does a great job.

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Tim Geithner Speaks
9:30 AM ET

Beige Book
[djStar]2:00 PM E

Specific Consensus Commentaries

MBA Purchase Applications
Released on 12/2/2009 7:00:00 AM For wk11/27, 2009
Prior Actual
Purchase Index – W/W Change 9.6 % 4.1 %

Highlights
MBA’s purchase application index rose 4.1 percent in the holiday shortened Nov. 27 week. The refinance index rose 1.7 percent. Low rates are a big plus for mortgage demand with 30-year loans averaging 4.79 percent, down 3 basis points for the lowest rate since May. Indications on the housing market are picking up steam.

Challenger Job-Cut Report
Released on 12/2/2009 7:30:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Actual
Announced Layoffs – Level 55,679 50,349

Highlights
Challenger’s count of layoff intentions slipped to 50,349 in November vs. October’s 55,679. In a reminder of how much layoffs have eased, the year-ago total for November was 181,671. But a bad sign is a lack of hiring intentions, totalling only 10,076 in the month vs. October’s 57,520. ADP’s payroll count is up at 8:15 ET

ADP Employment Report
Released on 12/2/2009 8:15:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Actual
ADP employment -203 M/M change (000) -169,000 M/M change (000)

Highlights
ADP estimates November private payrolls will drop 169,000.
Definition
The ADP national employment report is computed from a subset of ADP records that in the last six months of 2008, represented approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 24 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data are collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. ADP also use ADP contracted with Macroeconomic Advisors to compute a monthly report that would ultimately help to predict monthly nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s employment situation. The ADP report only covers private (excluding government) payrolls at this time. As a simplification of the process used by Macroeconomic Advisors, estimates are based upon statistical comparison of ADP growth rates to BLS payroll employment growth rates at the industry level. ADP also adds in the BLS initial claims data for the week just prior to the employment report as part of its estimation procedure. (Automatic Data Processing (ADP)/Macroeconomic Advisers)

EIA Petroleum Status Report
Released on 12/2/2009 10:30:00 AM For wk11/27, 2009
Prior Actual
Crude oil inventories (weekly change) 1.0 M barrels 2.1 M barrels

Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products
]]> http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/12/es-emini-day-trading-pivot-fed-announcements-commentary-5/feed/ 0 ES Emini Day Trading: Detailed Trading Chart http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/11/es-emini-day-trading-detailed-trading-chart/ http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/11/es-emini-day-trading-detailed-trading-chart/#comments Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:57:12 +0000 trader7757 http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1065 Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade.  Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service.  He does a great job.

ES Emini Chart for November 30, 2009

ESZ9 for 11-30-09, what a great day to trade.

ESZ9 for 11-30-09, what a great day to trade.

There are not many days when the market is in such an obliging mood for traders.  Instead of being the usual brutal beast, we were treated to a very gentle and easy day to trade.  Just the same, I did manage to blow one trade.

The Dubai issue dominated most of the action early on and drove prices down with force, but then the market reconsidered the impact of the Dubai restructuring and decided it wasn’t as big a deal as originally thought.  I caution, though, that the stock market is a fickle beast, and might well decide, at a later moment, that it needs to worry about Dubai after all.

]]> http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/11/es-emini-day-trading-detailed-trading-chart/feed/ 1 ES Emini Day Trading: Should You Pay to Learn to Trade http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/11/es-emini-day-trading-should-you-pay-to-learn-to-trade/ http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/11/es-emini-day-trading-should-you-pay-to-learn-to-trade/#comments Thu, 26 Nov 2009 15:40:42 +0000 trader7757 http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1055 This is a very difficult question for me to answer, and I receive quite a bit of email asking which programs are the best to learn the emini.  I suppose my answer is a simple one, and that is you should pay to fill in the gaps you don’t know.

I learned to trade in the institutional setting, so I didn’t have to pay a thing except for long hours and low pay, especially during my early years.  Of course, as I improved the pay got better and I made a great living.  On the other hand, most novice internet traders don’t have the option of learning in an institutional setting, so they must learn from a number of sources.  Yes, it is going to cost some money, but it doesn’t have to be a whole lot of cash.

First and foremost, through out the notion that common sense is an accurate predictor of what the market may or may not do…the market has nothing to do with common sense.  On this blog I have given you some rudimentary oscillator training and discussed the importance of fractals in your trading scheme.  In a sense, that should get you started, but it won’t complete your trading education.   I have also, in a past post, recommended some great books to read.  They are good, but they are only a stepping stone on your way to trading success.  No, you need specific knowledge and experience, and those are tough commodities to come by.

1.  Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade.  Ask for Chad at 800-560-1640.  Large futures brokerage houses have a wealth of information they can share with you to get you started.  Plus, it’s free.

2.  Get a good charting program, like Ninja Trader, then add Decision Bar to the mix, this program will keep you out of a plethora of bone headed trades and it’s worth its weight in gold.  Ninja Trader will cost you about $50 a month and Decision Bar is $99 a month.

3.  Try mastering a single trade set-up like The Stock Index Trade, this trade will present itself every day or so and is a great winner.  The cost for the program is $67 and you will easily make your money back in the first week.

Once you get on your feet trading, you might consider joining a trading room.  There are several great ones out there, and they can be very helpful.

Some to consider are:

1.  John Carter and Hubert Centers Trading Room, these guys are funny and very, very talented.

2. The Emini Addict has a great trading room, and I highly recommend it.

3.  The Emini Trading School has one of the best trading rooms available, and offers a free trial during certain times of the year.

All of these trading rooms are going to cost $300-500 a month, and you are wanted to be consistently winning trades before you join.  They will definitely help your bottom line, but make sure you can afford the investment before you jump in.

Finally, there are actual trading courses available for you to participate in.   These courses can run anywhere from m$2000-10000 bucks.

1.  The only course that I can wholly recommend is Trading Concepts.  It is a sound course and is around $2000.  Bottom line, it’s a great program and you will become a competent trader.

2.  I give my highest rating to INO, which offers the most comprehensive trading education in the business.  There are hundreds of videos from the likes of John Murphy, Linda Rashcke and a host of others.  It is, quite simply, the best in the business.

Please note:  I do not recieve any financial incentive to recommend these products and am in no way affiliated with them, with the exception of INO, with who I am an affiliate.

The point here is a simple one, you are going to have to rely on some outside expertise to become a great trader.  Invest your education dollars wisely, the higher priced programs are not necessarily the best ones.   Check out the programs I have outlined and see if you don’t find something of interest.  All the best trading.

]]> http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2009/11/es-emini-day-trading-should-you-pay-to-learn-to-trade/feed/ 0