Archive for ‘pivot’

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Anouncements-Commentary

By , 29 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/30/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1102.83 1116.17 1084.92 1071.58 1053.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Chicago PMI
[Report][Bullet9:45 AM ET
Farm Prices
[Bullet3:00 PM ET

Chicago PMI
Released on 11/30/2009 9:45:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Business Barometer Index – Level 54.2 53.0 50.8  to 55.5

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Chicago PMI jumped more than 8 points in October to 54.2. For the month, production surged nearly 17 points. We may see further improvement in November as the new orders index jumped more than 15 points.
Definition
The Institute of Supply Management – Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey is conducted by Kingsbury International, LTD. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 27 November, 2009, No Comment

Well, Black Friday is upon us and the department stores are likely to be swamped with crazed shoppers looking for the latest gadget.  Thankfully, I will be home day trading.

ESZ9
For 11/26/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1109.25 1109.50 1109.00 1108.75 1108.50

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

NYSE Early Close – 1:00 ET

Weekly Bill Settlement

SIFMA Rec. Early Close 2:00 ET

Money Supply
[Bullet4:30 PM

Not much going on today, and note that that the NYSE closes at 1:00.

ES Emini Daytrading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 24 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/24/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1130.42 1158.08 1083.83 1056.17 1009.58

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

GDP
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET
Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET
FOMC Minutes
[Bullet2:00 PM ET

GDP
Released on 11/24/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR 3.5 % 2.8 % 2.5 % to 3.4 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % to 0.8 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the third quarter in the advance estimate came in stronger than expected with a 3.5 percent gain, following a 0.7 percent dip in the prior quarter. The third quarter boost was the first positive GDP number since a 1.5 percent increase for the second quarter of 2008. Cash for clunkers did add substantially to third quarter growth as motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Inflation is still subdued as the GDP price index edged up 0.8 percent, following no change in the second quarter. Looking ahead, more recent monthly numbers indicate a downward revision to third quarter growth—including negatives from monthly international trade and business inventories

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Released on 11/24/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk11/21, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales – W/W change -0.1 % 0 %
Store Sales – Y/Y 2.4 % 3.3 %

Highlights
Easy year-over-year comparisons look to make for strong mid-single-digit gains for November same-store sales, according to ICSC-Goldman. The week-to-week pace in the Nov. 21 week was unchanged but not the year-on-year pace which rose nearly 1 full percentage point to plus 3.3 percent for the best reading in more than two years. The report sees this rate increasing in the Nov. 30 week, predicting strong sales on what it calls “Bargain” Friday and also strong sales on the following Saturday. But year-on-year comparisons are not what the financial markets move on. It’s month-on-month that counts. Redbook, up at 8:55 ET, does offer a November-to-October measure.

Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 23 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/20/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1094.83 1095.17 1094.42 1094.08 1093.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Existing Home Sales
Released on 11/23/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Existing Home Sales – Level – SAAR 5.57 M 5.700 M 5.290 M to 5.900 M

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Existing home sales in September spiked 9.4 percent to a 5.57 million annual rate. Existing home sales have been on a healthy uptrend in recent months, showing gains in five of the last six months. Recent numbers have been boosted by the clock ticking down on tax credits for first time home buyers with closing required by November. Tax credits have been extended and expanded but we are likely to see an easing in sales as there are not as many in the eligibility pool for these tax credits as in earlier months. And rising unemployment is weighing on other potential buyers.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 12 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/13/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1098.00 1108.75 1090.25 1079.50 1071.75

Fed and Agency Announcements

Charles Evans Speaks
10:30 AM ET

The question in my mind is where this market is headed.  How long can this gravity defying stock market rally continue?  I know, I know, I thought you were a scalper?  In my trading life I am a scalper, but spending so much time day trading makes you like an intimate friend of this rally.  Just when you think the market could not go higher, it seems to find a way…

ES Emini Daytrading: Daily Pivot, Fed Annoucements and Commentary

By , 11 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/11/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1092.42 1092.58 1092.08 1091.92 1091.58

Fed and Fed Agency Annoucements

It’s Veterans Day and the Fed is taking it easy.

ES Emini: Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 10 November, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 11/10/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1099.75 1107.75 1084.00 1076.00 1060.25

Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

Redbook
[Report][Bullet8:55 AM ET

Dennis Lockhart Speaks
9:15 AM ET

Janet Yellen Speaks
10:00 AM ET

Richard Fisher Speaks
7:30 PM ET

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
Released on 11/10/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk11/7, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales – W/W change 0.1 % -0.1 %
Store Sales – Y/Y 1.9 % 2.9 %

Highlights
ICSC-Goldman’s same-store retail index ended six straight weeks of gains, down 0.1 percent in the Nov. 7 week to mask a plus 2.9 percent year-on-year rate that’s the best since August last year. ICSC, which stands for the International Council of Shopping Centers, often conducts special surveys, and their latest indicates that shoppers plan to put off holiday shopping until the Friday after Thanksgiving, which the report said is now being dubbed “Bargain Friday” instead of “Black Friday,” the latter referring to the first day of retailer profitability. The report, as others, expects year-on-year rates to continue to improve as retailers lap comparisons with last year’s deep recession. Redbook will post their results at 8:55 ET.

Redbook
Released on 11/10/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk11/7, 2009
Prior Actual
Store Sales Y/Y change 0.9 % 1.7 %

Highlights
Year-on-year rates are definitely on the increase in the retail sector which is beginning to benefit from easy comparisons against last year’s deep recession. Redbook reports a plus 1.7 percent year-on-year rate in the Nov. 7 week, the best since September last year. ICSC-Goldman, issued earlier this morning, shows the best year-on-year rate since August last year. But what this means for the month-to-month comparison is uncertain. Redbook’s first take on October vs. November is very positive, showing a 4.3 percent gain but one a little weaker than the targeted 4.8 percent gain. Redbook says retailers are promoting hard trying to make each day a “Black Friday” with deep discounts and early holiday displays.

Lots of Fed Speak this afternoon as two FOMC give separate speeches this afternoon.  Perhaps the market may take some interest in these speeches, though I cannot discern that the market, at this juncture, is paying attention to anything.  Also, plenty of sales data, which should give some guidance on how the Christmas shopping season may play out.

We made new yearly highs in several of the stock index contracts yesterday. which I wrote about yesterday afternoon.  I would suspect that much of the volatility we experienced earlier in the year may return as the market thrashes about in full bull or bear market rally mode.

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