The Fractal Futures Trader » resistance

More E-Mini Trading Setups with Support and Resistance

trader7757 — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 05:26:10 +0000

It’s not unusual to see traders using support and resistance to set up potential trades. The most common trade I see among novice investors is a set up that envisions the price action “bouncing” off an existing support or resistance lines. There are many versions of this particular trade, and it is not unusual to see small investors implement this trade over and over. To be sure, using support and resistance lines as potential setups is very common.

Unlike the trade I described above, where the small traders are looking for a bounce off a support or resistance line, I am looking for a continuation through a support/resistance line. This makes sense at several levels. First and foremost, I’m a trend oriented trader and dislike trading against the trend. By definition, any bounce off a support or resistance line would entail a move against an existing trend, which is something I avoid, especially in a strong trend. Secondly, in order for the price action to move through a support or resistance line it takes a medium, at the least, and usually a strong push to pierce the line. Inevitably, this strong push creates excess momentum which is carried through for 10 or 15 additional ticks, and those additional ticks are the prize I am seeking to capture. This set up usually results in a very violent and short trade, as the momentum pushes the price upward or downward at a high rate of speed. It is an exciting trade to watch and even more exciting to initiate.

When setting this particular trade up, I generally look for a strong support/resistance line that will intersect an established trend line. As an aside, I tend to prefer to take this trade to the short side as the market tends to move faster when heading downward. This can be attributed to panic selling, or long traders bailing out of short positions as the price action moves against them. In any event, I position my entry three or four points below the support/resistance line and wait for the price to come to me. Needless to say, it is never a good idea to chase the price action and it is rare for me to initiate a market order. I want to enter a trade at a point of my own choosing where I think I have the best chance of profiting.

Once you become accustomed to spotting the set up, you’ll find it occurs two to three times daily. The trade is relatively reliable if it occurs in a trending market, and the trend does not necessarily have to be a strong one. On the other hand, I would avoid taking this trade when the market is in a well defined channel. Breakouts or breakdowns out of channel formations are generally unreliable and typically fail. False breakouts from a channel formation look very enticing from the onset, but after moving three or four ticks in your favor they tend to retreat back into the channel. Once in the channel, it is anyone’s guess where the price action may go as movement inside the channel is random, at best.

In summary, we have looked at a trade using support/resistance lines. Instead of looking for a bounce off these lines, we have outlined a straight that entails a continuation of a trend through known support/resistance. We have noted that this trade is reliable when used in conjunction with a trending market, further we have cautioned against taking a straight out of very well-established channel.

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More Notes on FibGrid from a Technical Analysis Skeptic

trader7757 — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 17:10:35 +0000

Years of trading experience has reinforced a single, indisputable fact; prices tend to stop and start along common lines. The reason for these phenomena is poorly understood, as is the position of the exact point these lines utilize for their stopping and starting points. This observation is not an extraordinary revelation for anyone who has spent any length of time in front of a trading chart. Often called support and resistance lines, these stopping and starting points are evident when observing the price action on any futures or stock chart.

The world of Efficient Market Theory would have us believe that these areas of support and resistance are the result of random market movement where supply and demand are in equilibrium. In an academic sense, this explanation makes good sense, as there does not seem to be a discernable pattern in either the lines of support or lines of resistance. It might also be useful to note that once a line of resistance is passed through by the price action, it often becomes a line of support, and vice versa when considering support lines. In short, it is common for most lines to be, at one point or another, both support and resistance; it all depends upon the time period under analysis and the movement of the underlying assets price action.

There have been a wide variety of attempts to quantify the location, or predicted location, of these support/resistance lines. Floor traders pivot points have been a popular support/resistance predictive device for quite some time, and can be very useful. On the other hand, pivots points can often be far off the mark and, on some days, completely irrelevant. There is no reliable way to determine on which days the market will honor floor traders pivots and which day they ignore them. That, of course, creates a problem for traders and pivot points…it is difficult to discern which day to use pivot points and which day to ignore them.

FibGrid on the other hand, has added much needed clarification to the support/resistance equation. As anyone who has consistently read this blog can attest, I have been a long time critic of the vast array of technical trading tools that have come to market. Everything from goofy robots, to elaborate charting programs have all been tested and found wanting. But this darn FibGrid actually works, and I have been forced to retract my iron clad condemnation of technical trading programs. It is most embarrassing.

David Starr describes the program most eloquently:

“The tendency of financial market movements to be proportional to other movements in ratios that have Fibonacci proportions is well documented. For example, many know that prices often retrace 38. %, 50%, or 61.8% of a move. Others know of some of the common projection ratios and we use many of these in our analysis. Less known is the FibGrid technique that projects a series of possible support and resistance levels based on projections from the beginning stages of the last bull market of significant degree.
The amazing thing is how prices tend to find these support and resistance levels that were projected from prices years earlier (sometimes even decades earlier) and those projections provide levels that are meaningful in almost all timeframes, including short day-trading timeframes. This 2584 share chart of the emini Dow futures shows how price obeys FibGrid levels on intraday movements. The key values for the projection of these levels were set back in 2002 and the support/resistance levels shown today have not moved since then. Prices still find them.”
I use FibGrid in my trading room and wouldn’t consider trading without the program running. There are many lines that appear in the FibGrid program that might normally be ignored by the average trader, yet time after time I notice price action stopping on these less than obvious lines, sometimes right to the exact tick.It would be difficult to calculate how many point I have made or been prevented from losing using the FibGrid program, so my endorsement is primarily anecdotal; but I am often astonished at the accuracy of this program in identifying support and resistance.

I would like to point out that FibGrid, in and of itself, is not a complete trading system. This program will only make you existing trading system far more effective and profitable.

Day Trading: Focus on the Price Action

trader7757 — Sat, 09 Oct 2010 15:22:01 +0000

From the onset, let me explain that I use momentum oscillators and a number of moving averages in my ES e-mini trading. On the other hand, momentum oscillators and rate of change indicators are not my primary focus in trade selection. There are several reasons for this, but my best explanation lies in the fact that most oscillators and indicators are lagging indicators. In short, these tools often lead you into late trade entries and tardy trade exits.

Of course, there are a number of oscillators and indicators that claim to be leading indicators. I would dispute the validity of this claim, and most oscillators and indicators that claim to be leading indicators display dubious performance, at best.

This leaves us with a problem; most day trading is in the business of making real-time decisions and lagging indicators do not perform adequately. That being said, there are trading methodologies that can give you insight, and real-time information, as to the directional movement of the market. One caveat though, like all things that are related to the market, there are no guarantees or 100% accurate methods for predicting market movement.

During the course of my daily day trading, I focus primarily on price action as it relates to support and resistance. Throw in a bit of volume analysis, and you have a basic methodology for analyzing the market in real-time. I use my momentum oscillators and indicators to confirm or disprove my thinking about the directional movement of the market. Oscillators are, in essence, a filtering device I employ to increase the accuracy of my trading. It has become very popular in recent years to discount the importance of momentum oscillators and rate of change indicators. Further, there are several traders who treat these instruments with disdain. I think this is a mistake. Momentum oscillators and rate of change indicators perform a very valuable function in filtering out trades that I initially identify as profitable, but after some further analysis using momentum oscillators and rate of change indicators I find divergences from my price action analysis and avoid the trade.

There are number of ways to determine support and resistance on a trading chart and each method has its strengths and weaknesses in market analysis. Many day traders are firm believers in daily pivots which have been use for decades to predetermine where potential support and resistance may occur. I am not especially fond of using a pivot-based system. I find that the market will generally indicate where support and resistance occur. These areas of support and resistance are relatively easy to identify and are typically more accurate than pre-determined levels of support and resistance which are the result of calculating pivot values. Of course, there is nothing wrong with using pivots, especially if you adjust the pivots as you trade to the levels of support and resistance the markets identify.

One of the least used methods of market analysis in day trading, especially in recent times, is analyzing the behavior and placement of individual price bars. In my trading, I find that price bar analysis gives me a distinct advantage over the pure momentum oscillator and rate of change indicator traders. There are a number of texts written on price bar analysis, and going through a detailed explanation of price bar analysis is outside the scope of this short article, though I highly recommend traders study and learn how price bar analysis can give you a unique insight into potential pricing levels and directional movement in the market. To be sure, there are many traders who rely solely on price bar analysis to determine the trades they plan to initiate. For me, I like to have as many tools as possible (without overloading my brain with extraneous information) at my disposal. Momentum oscillators and rate of change indicators are the perfect filtering device for trading. When I notice a divergence in my price action analysis and momentum oscillators and rate of change indicators I avoid the trade. On the other hand, when my price analysis and oscillator analysis indicate the same directional market movement, I feel confident that I have discovered a valid and potentially profitable trade.

In summary, I highly recommend employing price action analysis and momentum oscillators and rate of change indicators into your trading style. All of these analysis techniques will help lead you to sound trading decisions and hopefully, profitable trades. While it is popular to dismiss oscillators and indicators as inadequate lagging indicators, they are very effective filtering devices and impart important and relevant information you can use in your trading decisions.

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Why All the Doom and Gloom?

trader7757 — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 11:17:45 +0000

Like most things in life, there is a way to make money out of practically any situation. And, recession is no exception. Having been fortunate enough, or unfortunate enough, to have been day trading through several recessions, the doom-birds come to roost every time the economy takes a serious downturn. While there may be some individuals in the doomsday movement that are seriously concerned about the state of our economy, I am convinced that the vast majority are simply capitalizing on the fears and insecurities of the American public.

And they have a wide variety of doomsday cures to proffer. Buy gold, silver, you name it… and they have some sort of “fix it” product that is guaranteed to ameliorate any potential problems with the upcoming “end times.” This is not to say that there are not rough times ahead. Our country faces many serious problems and it will take innovative and creative solutions to steer clear of potentially serious economic situations. Personally, I have serious doubts that our current set of economists and politicians have the intestinal fortitude to tackle the serious issues that lay before us. But that issue is not the topic of this article.

No, what concerns me is the opportunist who is working overtime to exacerbate the public’s perception of our current economic woes. Our country has shown time and time again to be resilient and steadfast in its resolution and approach to crisis situations. Granted, many of our past presidents have shown little restraint in financing our public debt. This trend needs to stop. No country or individual can spend in excess of their earnings for any extended period of time. You need not be an economist to understand this simple principle. On the other hand, many of the citizens of our country have grown accustomed to the government solving even the smallest of economic hardships they face. Of course, this is not a government that our forefathers, our founding fathers, envisioned for the populace.

In short, we as a country will need to be more innovative in our approach to government spending. We must learn to do more with less money. In my opinion, this will be a bitter pill for many to swallow, but it is, nonetheless, an essential remedy for our current situation.

On the other hand, the chorus of the doomsday cabal grows louder every day; and richer every day. They would have you believe that we have found ourselves in an intractable situation; nothing is farther from the truth. While our debt load has increased in recent years, it is far from unmanageable. It is also true that the dollar has fallen against other currencies in recent years; some of this is intentional and some devaluation is the result of our current recession.

My point is a simple one; don’t buy into the notion that our country is lost. We are a powerful and influential force in the world. Our universities, contrary to what many may say, still produce great technological minds that will lead us in the coming century. We are still a country of great wealth and influence.

In short, don’t buy into the notion that all is lost, as many would have you believe. Every recession that I have experienced has brought forth a group of the doomsday cabal. They hawk their newsletters and negativity to a public unaware of the underlying strength of our country. They also make a tidy sum on spreading this negativity to anyone who’ll listen. Like all recessions, this one will come to an end and productivity and profitability will once again be the norm.

Needless to say, we will have to make some changes in the way Wall Street does business, and we have made some strides in that area. Personally, I was disappointed that the Republican leadership blocked the reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act which prevents Wall Street investment banks from the effectively securitizing mortgage loans. This was a great mistake, and one that may come back to roost yet again. It is my belief, however, that this oversight will be corrected in time and Wall Street investment banks will return to their proper function. We have a long way to emerge from our current economic woes, but we will emerge a better and more reliable economy than ever, and the doomsday cabal will once again sink into obscurity, that is, until we experience another recession.

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Day Trading: High Probability versus Low Probability Trading

trader7757 — Sun, 12 Sep 2010 00:04:27 +0000

There is a natural desire, especially by beginning traders, to want to trade excessively. This is not difficult to understand. A day trader cannot make money unless he or she is in a trade; this is the general outlook of most novice day traders. But this line of thinking has some serious faults, and it is important to learn to select your trades in a systematic and emotion free state of mind.

Of course, selecting high-quality trades is easier said than done. At various times, very unproductive trades form set up patterns that can be very enticing. Low probability trades are like the lure of Medusa, they look great at first glance, but can cause serious losses if systematic analysis of the trade is not undertaken.

How do you know the difference between a high probability trade and a low probability trade?

First and foremost, every day trader must make an assessment of whether the trade is with the trend or against the trend. While many popular courses on trading tout the wisdom of trading retracements and identifying peaks and troughs in trading patterns, these are all unsound trading methodologies and I know of few successful day traders who employ them. Great traders are masters at taking what the market offers, and not trying to create trading opportunities themselves. A novice trader’s ability to effectively identify trending patterns is an essential skill because the very best traders trade primarily with the trend. In my view, less than 10% of your trades should be countertrend trades.

Secondly, many novice day traders and a plethora of trading systems rely heavily upon oscillators and indicators to choose potential trades. On the other hand, most seasoned day traders pay close attention to actual price action when trading. Important principles like support and resistance are prime movers in determining whether a trade has real potential. For example, taking a short trade into a known support is the recipe for a losing trade. Obviously, a successful day trader must have the ability and experience to identify known areas of support and resistance to avoid taking trades into these hazardous trading zones. Most experienced traders can spot support and resistance by glancing at a chart; this skill is learned through observing thousands of charts throughout trader’s career. Of course, there are add-on programs to most charting platforms that can spot support and resistance for a day trader who has not acquired the ability to identify support and resistance on his or her own. For some, these add-on programs can be very effective and helpful. In any event, any trade that will lead a trader prematurely into known support or resistance is often a trade that is doomed to failure and it’s important to realize these trades are very low probability in nature. In short, price action is where the real trade selection takes place, and indicators and oscillators supply filtering information to reinforce the strength or weakness of the trade under consideration.

This is among the most difficult concepts to learn in day trading, as many day traders are looking for a magic oscillator or indicator that will revolutionize their trading results. I am sorry to report that, to date, no such magical oscillator or indicator exists. Look to identify solid trades in the price action of any chart, and then calculate the potential to profit by identifying where support and resistance will affect the performance of your trade. Many traders use pivots and other predictive indicators to calculate support and resistance. For many years, I was in this camp. As I have grown older, I prefer to identify support and resistance as it develops on the chart, not through some artificial predictive means. This attitude is subjective in nature, and his a choice each individual trader has to make.

In summary, we have looked at trading against the trend and concluded that countertrend trading results in low probability trades, on the other hand trading with the trend results in higher probability trades. We have also noted that known support and resistance are prime movers in determining the feasibility and potential profitability of any trade. Price action is the name of the game, and learning to read and interpret what price action is telling a day trader is the real secret to trading success. If you can master reading price action, it is highly likely you can become a successful day trader.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Chart Trading Patterns-Part 2

trader7757 — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:52:46 +0000

Wedges are considered continuation patterns. The rule of thumb when analyzing or trading an established trend is to follow the trend until it breaks or transitions to a sideways market cycle. The break of a trend is defined by prices trading through the resistance of a downtrend or the support of the uptrend. Wedges can help a trader find an entry point within the context of a trend—which, contrary to belief, is a difficult thing to do correctly. Just because a market is trending doesn’t mean that any entry with the trend is a good one. The wedge offers a trader a point at which to short resistance at the upper downtrend line or play the reversal of the trend, which also is defined by the upper downtrend line.

Chart patterns can develop simultaneously across multiple time frames as well, so they are particularly well suited to handle any trader’s demand, from the end-of-the-day trader to the most hyperactive daytrader. So far, we have looked at chart patterns as they have developed in the indexes, however, chart patterns are especially accurate in the forex market due to its 24-hour trading. The US dollar/Japanese yen 15-minute chart in Figure 3 shows a symmetrical triangle forming.

Click to Enlarge

A symmetrical triangle is formed with a downtrend line and an uptrend line. Earlier, we mentioned that understanding a pattern’s quality is crucial to trading patterns—that every pattern is not a trade, but a potential set up. This pattern is a good quality symmetrical pattern for a number of reasons. The two keys to look for are the balance of the pattern and the balance of price.

Specifically, we are looking for the two trend lines to form a triangle that is squeezing price in a way that if we were to imagine folding the pattern in half lengthwise, the angles would be almost identical. In other words, the angle of the trend lines must be balanced. The other visual cue to be aware of is whether prices are balanced within the pattern. This balance can be seen if prices are bouncing off both the downtrend and the uptrend lines. As this symmetrical triangle pattern was developing, another pattern on the US dollar/Japanese yen was also shaping up. A rising wedge was developing on the 15- and 30-minute charts (Figures 4 and 5, respectively).

Click to Enlarge

As you can see, both of these patterns were using some of the same touch points to create the uptrend lines. In rising wedges, there are two uptrend lines where the lower one is support and the upper one is resistance. In rising wedges, we must be especially mindful of the lower uptrend line support because this is the level at which we can buy a bounce. If this level breaks, it could signal a reversal of the uptrend in which the pattern formed.

These two patterns were not the only opportunities a chart pattern trader could take advantage of. Another 15-minute rising wedge had also formed and this wedge was a larger pattern (Figure 6).

It used many of the same touch points, but the difference between this rising wedge and the smaller rising wedge is that the “look back” of this pattern was longer. Look back is the amount of data used to form the pattern. In this case, you can see that the look back goes to 7/31, as opposed to the smaller wedge that originated on 8/1. This may seem like a small difference, but consider that the charts are 15-minute time frames and that each new hour presents four new candles. The difference of even just six hours is 24 new candles from which to connect touch points and create a pattern.

Let’s look at some more examples. Again, remember all your studies should be geared toward training your eyes to notice the nuances of patterns because this allows you to make the distinction between good, better, and best patterns. So far, we’ve looked at patterns that are dominated by trend lines. Now let’s examine patterns formed by more horizontal levels.

A rectangle pattern is similar to a channel. The difference between the two is that a channel is typically narrow and a rectangle is wider. It’s much like the difference between accumulation and distribution. Just like triangles, rectangles (and channels) can develop simultaneously across multiple time frames.

Let’s take a moment to discuss time frames. Ultimately, which time frame you chose to trade should be based upon the quality of the pattern and risk/reward ratio it presents. Other considerations are more individual.

For example, if you are an intraday or full-time trader, many shorter-term time frames will be available to you for analysis. However, if you are a part-time trader or someone who prefers to look at the charts once or twice a day, then certainly, longer-term intraday charts, like the 240-minute chart or the daily will suit your time constraints or preference. Regardless of your preference, it must be said that chart patterns that develop on daily charts are more psychologically significant than those that develop on any intraday time frames. This is mainly because daily charts are by far the most followed by the general public.

My philosophy on time frames runs somewhat counter to the prevailing approach. While most traders look to longer time frames to confirm the movement on a shorter time frame (known as multiple time frame confirmation), I do not subscribe to this.not at all. In fact, my belief is that the smaller time frames are the “canary in a coalmine” and give a trader acute and more sensitive cues to shift in the market. Taking this one step further, treat each time frame as a stand alone and remember that the 15-minute chart is the building block to the 30-minute, and the 30-minute is the building block to the 60-, to the 240-, and then to the daily. A trend shift starts on the shorter time frame, and if that shorter time frame persists enough, it will affect the larger time frame, and so on.

One of my students told me that I described this effect as the “stream leading to the river leading to the ocean.” I frankly can’t remember saying it, but it sure is accurate! So the 30- and 60-minute charts would be the stream, the 180- and 240-minute charts the river, and the daily the ocean. These time frames are simply my preference when analyzing forex. Some traders use a 15-minute chart, which one of my students called the “creek that leads to the stream.” Well said.

This rectangle appears on the 15-, 30-, and 60-minute charts (Figures 7, 8, and 9, respectively).

The horizontal support and resistance levels that created the rectangle all use the same touch points. The main determination of which one to trade would be which pattern was the best example of a rectangle. After this determination, you would follow your preference for a specific time frame. As you can see, chart patterns offer accuracy, flexibility, and the boundaries traders need to identify in order to locate where we choose to enter a trade. Most of us have studied these powerful and simple-to-understand tools. Just do not make the error in thinking simple is ineffective.

Click to Enlarge

My continuing trading adventure is sprinkled with many things I would have never thought I would be doing, like public speaking and seminars, online classes, software development, books, and more. In the end though, I know it’s just me and my charts. My friends and family even joke that I’m “off the chart” on weekends and vacation. When I present my trading approach at any of the Expos where everything always seems “new and improved,” “hot,” and “advanced,” I am proud to say that the people who taught me were those who traded, wrote, and taught in the early 1900′s, and that the tools to my trade are a century old. That’s before computers, television, and back when “Wall Street” was a street with a tall wall built along it! Time-tested, tried and true suits me just fine

ES Emini Daytrading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

trader7757 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:10:54 +0000

ESZ9
For 11/24/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1130.42	1158.08	1083.83	1056.17	1009.58

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET

GDP
8:30 AM ET

Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET

Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET

FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM ET

State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET

GDP

Released on 11/24/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR	3.5 %	2.8 %	2.5 % to 3.4 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR	0.8 %	0.8 %	0.8 % to 0.8 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the third quarter in the advance estimate came in stronger than expected with a 3.5 percent gain, following a 0.7 percent dip in the prior quarter. The third quarter boost was the first positive GDP number since a 1.5 percent increase for the second quarter of 2008. Cash for clunkers did add substantially to third quarter growth as motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Inflation is still subdued as the GDP price index edged up 0.8 percent, following no change in the second quarter. Looking ahead, more recent monthly numbers indicate a downward revision to third quarter growth—including negatives from monthly international trade and business inventories

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Released on 11/24/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk11/21, 2009

	Prior	Actual
Store Sales – W/W change	-0.1 %	0 %
Store Sales – Y/Y	2.4 %	3.3 %

Highlights
Easy year-over-year comparisons look to make for strong mid-single-digit gains for November same-store sales, according to ICSC-Goldman. The week-to-week pace in the Nov. 21 week was unchanged but not the year-on-year pace which rose nearly 1 full percentage point to plus 3.3 percent for the best reading in more than two years. The report sees this rate increasing in the Nov. 30 week, predicting strong sales on what it calls “Bargain” Friday and also strong sales on the following Saturday. But year-on-year comparisons are not what the financial markets move on. It’s month-on-month that counts. Redbook, up at 8:55 ET, does offer a November-to-October measure.

Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

trader7757 — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:15:50 +0000

ESZ9
For 11/20/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1094.83	1095.17	1094.42	1094.08	1093.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Existing Home Sales

Released on 11/23/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Existing Home Sales – Level – SAAR	5.57 M	5.700 M	5.290 M to 5.900 M

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Existing home sales in September spiked 9.4 percent to a 5.57 million annual rate. Existing home sales have been on a healthy uptrend in recent months, showing gains in five of the last six months. Recent numbers have been boosted by the clock ticking down on tax credits for first time home buyers with closing required by November. Tax credits have been extended and expanded but we are likely to see an easing in sales as there are not as many in the eligibility pool for these tax credits as in earlier months. And rising unemployment is weighing on other potential buyers.