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<channel>
	<title>The Fractal Futures Trader</title>
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	<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress</link>
	<description>Learn to Make $500-1000 a Day Trading the E-mini Contracts</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 06:17:40 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Sorry for the Absence</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/03/absence/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/03/absence/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 06:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[e-mini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emini]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1268</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I must apologize for being gone for the last couple weeks, as I have decided to compile an easy to use and effective e mini trading course. I have put a tremendous amount of time and work into making this book both usable and profitable for anyone who uses it. I have included all of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I must apologize for being gone for the last couple weeks, as I have decided to compile an easy to use and effective e mini trading course. I have put a tremendous amount of time and work into making this book both usable and profitable for anyone who uses it. I have included all of my basic techniques for trading, and will have a daily video and advanced trading section posted every evening. I felt that is important for readers to have a comprehensive set of tools to trade e mini indexes. I still have a few days left to complete the course, but it should be ready by next week.</p>
<p>This course will encompass the core principles I use; the CCI, the Stochastic, the Average True Range, and the NYSE tick. I show my subscribers how to integrate these indicators in a coherent trading style. I will have more information available as I approached completion. Of course, I will continue to blog on pertinent topics related to e mini trading.</p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>Do You Keep a Trading Diary?</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/trading-diary/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/trading-diary/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Feb 2010 06:17:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading diary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading technique]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1266</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The point of keeping a trading diary is to remind me that I've must remain a student of trading at all times. Regardless of whether I've traded 25 years, or 25 months, or 25 minutes it is important to keep the student mentality. In my opinion, this is where many traders fall down. Learning to trade is an ongoing process, and the market has many moods and unique price action. Sometimes it can be months or years before similar situations arise, and it's handy and useful to note these anomalies so that you might be better prepared the next time they occur.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the first things my trading Mentor taught me was “winners keep score.” Since early in my trading career, I have kept a diary of the daily trades I initiate. There was a time when I thought that diaries were for bookworm-ish men and teenage girls. However, one of the most effective learning tools in my trading arsenal is my extensive trading diary.</p>
<p>Most futures brokerages have a method that will allow you to download your trades every day. Usually, this download comes in a spreadsheet format and is compatible with Excel. Of course, you&#8217;ll need to check with your broker to determine the methodology your particular brokerage uses. Along with a daily accounting of the trades I&#8217;d make I also include a copy of the chart I traded on that particular day. Further, I may make notes about the trading activity that occurred that day. I often note the volume, volatility and in any anomalies that may occur throughout the course of the day.</p>
<p>Why go to all this trouble?</p>
<p>In my trading, I have found my trading diary to be one of the most useful tools for me to improve my trading technique. I generally wait about three months, or until I&#8217;ve forgotten that individual day, to revisit my trades and evaluate both good and poor trading technique. I am often amazed, and sometimes embarrassed, at the trades I initiate. However, reviewing your trading diary allows you to dissect and analyze the trades you made and hopefully learn from your mistakes and reinforce the trades that were executed properly.</p>
<p>The point of keeping a trading diary is to remind me that I&#8217;ve must remain a student of trading at all times. Regardless of whether I&#8217;ve traded 25 years, or 25 months, or 25 minutes it is important to keep the student mentality. In my opinion, this is where many traders fall down. Learning to trade is an ongoing process, and the market has many moods and unique price action. Sometimes it can be months or years before similar situations arise, and it&#8217;s handy and useful to note these anomalies so that you might be better prepared the next time they occur.</p>
<p>Even more important is to review the charts from past trading days. By looking at the trades and the chart together it is like looking at a chart from yesterday and analyzing the moves you made both, good and bad. This repetitive diary review keeps me in the learning mode and allows me to continue my own personal growth as a futures trader.</p>
<p>As I said, I use an Excel spreadsheet and make notes in the individual daily cells for my trading diary. On the other hand, there are an infinite number of ways to keep the trading diary. You might use Word, or Open Office, or any program that will allow you to keep a record of your activity. It doesn&#8217;t need to be fancy, it only needs to make sense to you. There are also a number of commercial trading diaries on the market which are very detailed and inclusive. For me though, Excel works just fine. Your choice of recording your trading activity is strictly a personal one, but make sure you keep a diary of some form.</p>
<p>How do I analyze my diary? I would like to think that I use specific criterion for selecting my trades. When I review my trading diary, I can cross check my trade entries to see if my trade selection met the criteria I have established. One of the traders worst enemies is trading on a motion or intuition. So I like to analyze my losing trades and determine which part of my criteria, if any, I violated. As you can see, the psychological aspect of trading is an important component to recheck. I try to identify those trades where emotion was an important component of my investment decision and note the specific chart formation that led me to believe I was entering a profitable trade, when I was not. I have found the only way that I can consistently analyze my past trading activities is through my trading diary. And it is through my past mistakes that I can avoid making similar unwise decisions.</p>
<p>In summary, I encourage you to keep the trading diary and record as much information about your daily trading as possible. It&#8217;s also important to get into the habit of entering information in your diary every day. Keeping a trading diary helps you, as a trader, state firmly entrenched in the learning mode, as it relates to trading. Reviewing your past trades and the chart formations that cause you to initiate those trades is a superior method to improve your trading technique and trading self-discipline.</p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>From PBS, An Interview with David Stockman and some Shocking Remarks</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/pbs-interview-david-stockman-shocking-remarks/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/pbs-interview-david-stockman-shocking-remarks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Feb 2010 04:44:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TARP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economists]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[taxes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1262</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[SAUL SOLMAN: David Stockman, former Michigan  congressman and Ronald Reagan&#8217;s budget chief, who&#8217;s also toiled in the  private sector at Wall Street&#8217;s Solomon Brothers, private equity firm  the Blackstone Group, and his own controversial private equity fund.
Charges against him for accounting fraud there were filed and later  dropped, and he settled [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>S<strong>AUL SOLMAN:</strong> David Stockman, former Michigan  congressman and Ronald Reagan&#8217;s budget chief, who&#8217;s also toiled in the  private sector at Wall Street&#8217;s Solomon Brothers, private equity firm  the Blackstone Group, and his own controversial private equity fund.</p>
<p>Charges against him for accounting fraud there were filed and later  dropped, and he settled a dispute with the SEC just last week.  Stockman&#8217;s now working on a book about the financial crisis called &#8220;The  Triumph of Crony Capitalism,&#8221; and has come out in favor of the  president&#8217;s bank reform efforts.</p>
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<p><!-- END sidebar -->David Stockman, welcome.</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN</strong>, former Reagan administration budget  director: Thank you.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> So, you like the Obama banking  proposal. Why?</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> I would give the administration  credit for trying to move us back to something that&#8217;s a lot saner than  trillion-dollar banks being propped up by the taxpayers, which is  exactly where we are today.</p>
<p>The fact is, Wall Street is entirely involved in capital markets  activity, which is fine. But that&#8217;s free market activity. They shouldn&#8217;t  be involved in it if they have got deposit insurance and if they have  got the Fed window behind them. That&#8217;s for deposit banks, not for  gunslingers and for hedge funds and for capital market players.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> But you were a gunslinger, right?</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> Yes. But I didn&#8217;t ask for any &#8212; I  didn&#8217;t ask for any deposit insurance that the taxpayer is going to back  up.</p>
<p>Please, Wall Street banks, don&#8217;t come and ask the taxpayer of this  country who&#8217;s out in Green Bay Wisconsin, can&#8217;t pay his mortgage, can  barely put food on his table, to have the safety net of the Fed and the  Deposit Insurance and the Treasury of the United States. It&#8217;s an  outrageous ask, and they ought to be ashamed of themselves.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> Listening to you, I&#8217;m struck by the  fact that I can imagine critics on the left saying exactly the same  thing.</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> I&#8217;m mortified by that thought. But,  at some point, you have to ask, what&#8217;s good policy? And we have gotten  into this syndrome, I think, over the last 20 years, where policy of the  Treasury and of the Fed has been dictated by Wall Street, that, if Wall  Street threatens to have a hissy fit, or the stock market is going to  go down, the Fed has basically capitulated and is creating a very  unstable and dangerous financial system in our economy.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> The president&#8217;s first bank proposal a  few weeks ago, to tax financial institutions based on their size and  risk-taking, stirred Stockman to write a New York Times op-ed.</p>
<p>&#8220;The baleful reality is that the big banks,&#8221; he wrote, &#8220;the freakish  offspring of the Fed&#8217;s easy money, are dangerous institutions, deeply  embedded in a bull market culture of entitlement and greed. This is why  the Obama tax is welcome.&#8221;</p>
<p>We asked the CEO of Bank of New York Mellon, Robert Kelly, to  respond.</p>
<p><strong>ROBERT KELLY</strong>, chief executive officer, BNY Mellon:  The reality is, banks provide millions of jobs in our economy. The  reality also is, is that we have had a one-in-80-year event. We also  have a gigantic economy, which you can&#8217;t run with a lot of really small  banks.</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> Well, you know, those are the  talking points from Wall Street, and I take strong issue. The fact is,  the heart of the bailout was AIG. That was $80 billion worth of CDS that  was going to go sour.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> CDS meaning?</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> Credit default swaps, OK? And we  weren&#8217;t bailing out AIG. We were bailing out the banks, because the  banks had bought a lot of low-caliber or subprime loans, wrapped some  insurance around it from AIG, and said, presto, we have a AAA, a  security on our balance sheet.</p>
<p>They didn&#8217;t. They had garbage on their balance sheet. And the bailout  was to make sure that they didn&#8217;t suffer multi $10 billion write-downs  on that AIG-supported loan.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> So, if you had been in the  administration after Lehman Brothers, you wouldn&#8217;t have supported  bailing out AIG?</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> No, absolutely not. It was the  single most, you know, drastic error in policy in modern history, going  back to the 1930s. This was exactly the wrong thing to do.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s destroyed any basis for fiscal discipline in the United States. I  was a member of Congress, and I know how they think. And they think by  analogy. If you did it for John, you have got to do it for Bob. There is  no way that any congressman is ever going to vote against farm  subsidies or ethanol subsidies or housing subsidies or anything else,  refrigerator subsidies, once we have made this tremendous bailout for  Wall Street, and we stepped into AIG.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> Well, spoken like a true gunslinger,  but you would have been taking an enormous risk.</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> It&#8217;s part of the capitalist system.  You know, if an investment bank gets in trouble, it ought to fail. If a  hedge fund gets in trouble, it ought to fail.</p>
<p>The idea that our system is so fragile that the failure of Lehman  Brothers or even Goldman Sachs, which could have happened, allegedly, in  the next few days, would have brought the whole system down, I think,  is baloney. I think it&#8217;s an urban legend that was created by Wall  Street.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> Almost everyone I talk to says too big  to fail is a bad idea, and, yet, in Republican and Democrat  administrations alike, it has been the de facto policy. Why?</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> I think part of the problem is that  Wall Street has this tremendous army of lobbyists, who strangle in the  cradle any decent idea before it can even see &#8212; see the light of day.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> Which sounded a lot like Stockman&#8217;s  political polar opposite, Paul Krugman.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL KRUGMAN</strong>, columnist, The New York Times: This is  as raw an incidence of the power of money in preventing us from doing  something that everybody knows we should do that I have ever seen.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> And now both men favor a new tax on  risk-taking financial institutions, which prompted one last question for  Ronald Reagan&#8217;s budget director, famous for the starve-the-beast  argument, that tax cuts would force government to cut spending.</p>
<p>Do you still feel that way?</p>
<p><strong>DAVID STOCKMAN:</strong> I think the lesson of the last 25  years is that it doesn&#8217;t work. You can keep cutting taxes until you  reach the point where this year &#8212; or the year just ended, we spent $3.6  trillion, and we only collected $2.2 trillion.</p>
<p>So, we are now so far out of kilter that it&#8217;s irrelevant. Taxes are  going to have to be raised. And the beast needs to be trimmed back. But  it can&#8217;t be starved enough to even begin to cope with our fiscal  problem. And this is where I think all the politicians are faking in  both parties, but the Republicans especially.</p>
<p>The Republicans think their mission in life is to cut taxes. Sorry,  game &#8212; game over. We&#8217;re now in the tax-raising business. And we&#8217;re  going to be in the tax-raising business for the next decade.</p>
<p><strong>PAUL SOLMAN:</strong> David Stockman, thank you very much.  Thank you.</p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>How to Trade ES Emini Gaps</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/trade-es-emini-gaps/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/trade-es-emini-gaps/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Feb 2010 00:18:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[emini gaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade gaps]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1260</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ From the onset, let's characterize a gap as a significant break in the price action to the upside, or sometimes to the downside. Generally speaking, a gap will look like a missed bar followed by the resumption of the trading action at a significantly higher or lower level than the level of the gap origination.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is not a lot of middle ground when comes to the trading of gaps; traders either swear by them or ignore them.  Gaps are formed by a variety of factors, and come in two distinct flavors. Some gaps are formed by institutional traders, others are formed  by retail and novice traders, and it is important to be able to identify each type of gap in order to trade it properly.</p>
<p>From the onset, let&#8217;s characterize a gap as a significant break in the price action to the upside, or sometimes to the downside.  Generally speaking, a gap will look like a missed bar followed by the resumption of the trading action at a significantly higher or lower level than the level of the gap origination.  My personal favorite gaps are the ones formed at the opening of the trading of the day versus the closing price (I&#8217;m referring to the ES contract here) of the day before.  Now I can hear the traders saying that the ES contract trades all night long, continuing directly into the next day.  I give overnight traders little weight, as the direction of all night trading is not necessarily indicative of what the session traders are thinking at the opening bell.  If there is a 10 point difference between the previously evenings close and the opening bell of the next trading session, there are some definite trading opportunities a trader should consider.</p>
<p>My first consideration when evaluating a gap situation is to decide whether or not the gap is the result of professional traders or amateur traders.</p>
<p>Here is my criteria for evaluating professional versus amateur gaps:</p>
<ol>
<li>Professional 	traders are loath to jump on a bandwagon, which is to say they are 	not going to pile onto a stock rapidly rising or falling.  	Professional traders buy after prolonged wave of selling has 	occurred.  Conversely, professional trade sell after a prolong wave 	of buying has occurred.  (You might refer to my article about the 	NYSE tick to get a better handle on this phenomena)</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>Amateur 	traders buy into a prolonged wave of buying, and sell into a 	prolonged wave of selling.  Quite simply, the want to jump on board 	a ride out any potential future gains.  This is a dangerous strategy 	and one that I do not recommend.</li>
</ol>
<p>The inevitable outcome of piling onto a rising ES contract is generally to lose money when the gap contract losses steam and then rapidly fades in the opposite direction.  Never underestimate the ferocity or intensity of these fades as they can be dramatic.</p>
<p>As you may have already ascertained, gaps can be dicey business, and anyone who claims that any “gap will refill” may be only partially right.  It takes careful analysis to trade a gap and non small amount experience to trade them properly.</p>
<p>And true gap traders go so far as to classify gaps into three distinct flavors.</p>
<ol>
<li>Breakaway 	gaps usually occur when a contract has been trading in a tight 	range, or consolidating pattern.  At some point it often breaks out 	of this range and gaps out of it consolidating range.  These 	potential gap situations are among my favorite gaps to trade by 	simply initiating buys and selling 1.5 points above and below the 	tight trading range and simply wait for a breakaway or breakdown in 	the consolidating pattern.  This particular strategy, especially 	when accompanied by tight stops represent a low risk gap trading 	strategy.</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>Exhaustion 	gaps occurs when the market simply begins running out of steam and 	makes a last euphoric stab at new highs.  These gap formations have 	not been profitable for me as it is very difficult to time the last 	gasp, which is also followed by a sharp move to the other direction.</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>Continuation 	gaps occur during a strong move, or trend, in and advancing price. 	Again, these can be tricky, but nowhere as treacherous as exhaustion 	gaps.</li>
</ol>
<p>There are many windy books written on how to trade gaps, many which contain very specific parameters in which to initiate a gap-related trade.  For my money, though, I look at gaps as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>If 	stocks start to accelerate upward after a significant period of 	buying, look to short. Usually amateurs are the driving force in the 	drive upward.</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li>The 	exact opposite is true on the short side, if stocks begin a rapid 	move downward after a significant move down, look to go long.</li>
</ol>
<p>As you can see, I would rather match wits with the amateurs than the professionals.  Futures trading is a zero sum game and experience is everything, I don&#8217;t try to tangle with experienced traders, it usually isn&#8217;t very profitable.</p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>Homeowners Walking Away From Homes</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/homeowners-walking-homes/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/homeowners-walking-homes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 16:52:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[real estate crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[home loan deafults]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate crisi]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1258</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From the New York Times
&#8220;New research suggests that when a home’s value falls below 75 percent  of the amount owed on the mortgage, the owner starts  to think hard about walking away, even if he or she has the money to  keep paying.
In a situation without precedent in the modern era,  [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the <span style="text-decoration: underline;">New York Times</span></p>
<p>&#8220;New research suggests that when a home’s value falls below 75 percent  of the amount owed on the mortgage, the owner starts  to think hard about walking away, even if he or she has the money to  keep paying.</p>
<p>In a situation without precedent in the modern era,  millions of Americans are in this bleak position. Whether, or how, to  help them is one of the biggest questions the Obama administration  confronts as it seeks a housing policy that would contribute to the  economic recovery.&#8221;</p>
<p>You know, I am one of those guys that figures that when you sign a contract you are bound by the terms of the contract.  We all seem to make bad financial decisions from time to time, but the new &#8220;American Way&#8221; seems to be a bit mercenary in terms of compliance.  It goes something like this, &#8220;if this contract goes well for me, I&#8217;m all in, but if things don&#8217;t work out so well, I&#8217;m outta here.&#8221;  I will grant that a great number of homeowners now find themselves underwater on their home valuations, and this may or may not be long term situation, but walking away from a home with a mortgage default is certainly a new method of viewing consumer responsibility.  The general line of thinking is let someone else, a third party, eat the loss and you walk away without responsibility.  Why even have a mortgage agreement to start with?</p>
<p>The New <span style="text-decoration: underline;">York Times Reporter</span> continues,</p>
<p>&#8220;“Since the beginning of December, I’ve advised 60 people to walk away,”  said Steve Walsh, a mortgage broker in Scottsdale, Ariz. “Everyone has  lost hope. They don’t qualify for modifications, and being on the  hamster wheel of paying for a property that is not worth it gets so  old.”</p>
<p>I can&#8217;t deny that walking away from a home where you are upside down solves the homeowners problems, but what sort of broker recommends defaulting on a home?  It just defies the way we have done business in this country, contractual law, and moral responsibility.  No one forced these homeowners to buy homes at skyhigh prices, they made the decision to buy of their own volition.  It appears that most of these homeowners are still employed and just tired of overpaying for a home in  which they misjudged the future price.  Am I missing something here?</p>
<p>On the other hand, if a homeowner has lost his income and can not make his payments, well, that is another story.  But if the homeowner is still employed and his payments are still part of the budget he calculated to pay for the house, I find it difficult to justify walking away from the home because you don&#8217;t like the mess in which you have put yourself.  Prices go up and down, that is the nature of a market driven economy, and most of us have to live with the consequences of rising and falling prices.  On the other hand, there seems to be a distinct group who doesn&#8217;t like the downside of the market driven economy and chooses not to participate.  I&#8217;ve heard it all, I guess.</p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>Do You Trade the TRIN?</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/trade-trin/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/02/trade-trin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 07:41:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Richard Arms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TICK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TRIN]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1256</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The TRIN was developed in 1967 by Richard Arms and is commonly referred to as the Arms Index.  It is a widely used index among institutional traders, and used less by individual traders.  This can be attributed to the difficult nature of interpreting the indicator, as it contrarian by nature.  The TRIN has it’s roots in the analysis of volume, or the breadth of the mark]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The TRIN was developed in 1967 by Richard Arms and is commonly referred to as the Arms Index.  It is a widely used index among institutional traders, and used less by individual traders.  This can be attributed to the difficult nature of interpreting the indicator, as it contrarian by nature.  The TRIN has it’s roots in the analysis of volume, or the breadth of the market.  Mathematically it looks like:</p>
<p>Arms Index =  (# of advancing issues / # of declining issues) / (advancing volume/declining volume)</p>
<p>It is intuitively obvious from the formula that up and down volume as it relates to share volume is the basis for it’s calculation.  Like all indicators a smoothing number of periods is added to give the indicator meaning. For short-term traders and swing traders periods of 4 or 5 days are typically used, but longer term traders use period basis as high as 55.  In my experience, it takes a good bit experimentation with the TRIN to find the number of periods that best suits your trading style.  As an intraday trader, I seldom use periods over 5, sometimes 5.  Many traders graph the TRIN, but my experience is that most traders park it in the upper left hand corner and show it as a simple ratio.</p>
<p>The TRIN has never been an oscillator traders use as a primary indicator, but more as a broader indicator in the package of indicator used to evaluate market conditions.  A reading of 1.0 on the TRIN is considered neutral and the market is considered to be in equalibrium.  Any reading beneath 1.0 is considered to be a bullish indicator,  and conversely, any reading above 1.0 is considered to be bearing.  I suppose the real value of the TRIN is to give a trader a quick reading on how the market is actually performing.  Another popular interpretation of the Arms indicator relates to it’s ability to predict overbought and oversold levels.  If the level is below 1.0 the market is considered to be oversold and the corollary interpretation applies to readings on the indicator over 1.0 as being overbought.  In my opinion, the difference in the interpretations is merely a semantic difference, but there are traders that will argue till they are blue in the face there is a definite difference in bullish and bearish vs overbought and oversold.  The primary argument centers around the time period indication of the indicator, as the bullish and bearish camp would argue their interpretation indicates buying and selling opportunities.</p>
<p>As I mentioned earlier, I would be hesitant to trade the TRIN as a primary indicator because it suffers, as all oscillators do, as a lagging indicator and therefore requires support from other market indicators to truly be valuable.  On the other hand, it lends genuine credence to a bullish or bearish trend when used in conjunction with a primary indicator.</p>
<p>One important distinction to note, and it is a mistake I have seen made, is the inverse relationship the TRIN shares with it’s cousin the TICK indicator, which are often used together.  It is important to note that a rising tick indicates a bullish sentiment, while a rising TRIN indicates a bearish sentiment.  In a set up using these indicators, then, the TICK and the TRIN would be moving in opposite directions.  Of course, divergences (as they always are) from this primary relationship are of great interest to traders and indicate dangerous trading opportunities.</p>
<p>It is important to note that while the TICK indicates the ratio of rising and falling issues, the TRIN is adept at indicating the volume flowing into rising vs falling issues.  This distinction is important to note as it indicate two very different monetary relationships.  The TICK tells us the ratio of rising vs falling issues while the TRIN differentiates the volume of money flowing into rising and falling issues.</p>
<p>Finally, I would caution most traders to spend some time with the volume studies popularized by Richard Arms, especially his EquiVolume system before diving headlong into the use of these indicators, as the relationship between the two can be difficult to trade without the proper study and trading.  On the other hand, once these two indicators are fully understood they can be pure gold in analyzing a market and discerning real trading opportunities.</p>
<p>In summary we have defined the nature of the TRIN, or Arms index, and noted that it moves in a contrary fashion than most indicators.  Further, a reading of 1.0 indicates a market that is neutral or in relative equilibrium.  On the other hand, readings below 1.0 are indicative of a bullish market sentiment, and readings above 1.0 are indicative of bearish sentiment.  Many traders substitute the terms oversold and overbought, respectively, for these conditions and consider the reading genuine buying opportunities.  It is important to remember the the TICK and TRIN, both Richard Arms indicators move in opposite directions in a trend, not the same direction.</p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>Fibonacci Retracement and Extension &#8211; The Holy Grail in Trading!</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/fibonacci-retracement-and-extension-the-holy-grail-in-trading/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/fibonacci-retracement-and-extension-the-holy-grail-in-trading/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jan 2010 23:18:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fibonacci]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[day trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[daytrading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fibonacci Numbers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fibonacci retracements]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1224</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After the market bounces back and takes a U turn at one of these retracement levels and rallies to the point D we say that the market has moved 27% above the original move AB or a total of 1.27%. Now if you want to become a serious trader no matter what market you trade, you should learn Fibonacci Retracement and Extension.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Did you find the Holy Grail in trading? If you know when to enter the market and when to exit the market at the right time, you have found the Holy Grail in trading. Fibonacci Retracement and Extensions is the Holy Grail for many traders. They trade by these Fibonacci Levels. Fibonacci sequence is a famous sequence that appears quite frequently in nature. Fibonacci sequence is obtained by adding the last two number to obtain the next number. The first two numbers are 0,1. After that just add the last two numbers to obtain the next number. Fibonacci sequence just develops like 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55,89,144,233,377 and so on.</p>
<p>Ratios obtained by dividing a number in the Fibonacci sequence with the number before it and with two numbers before it are always the same. These two numbers 1.27, 0.618 and 0.382 are very important and occur frequently in nature. These three ratios are used to construct Fibonacci Retracements and Extension Levels.</p>
<p>When there is a trend, price action is steadily going higher or lower. In case of an uptrend the price action makes higher highs and higher lows. While in case of a downtrend, price action makes lower lows and lower highs. This is hard to explain in words visualizing but I will make an effort. It is much better explained in front of a price chart. In case of an uptrend, price action starts from the support A, goes to resistance B, bounces back retraces itself and reaches a newer support C somewhat higher than A bounces back and reaches a higher resistance D before it again bounces back and reaches a still higher support E. So the price action can be broken into these three segments AB, BC and CD.</p>
<p>Now let&#8217;s start and draw Fibonacci Retracements. From B when price action bounces back, it retraces the past price action and the most likely place for the new support is one of these Fibonacci levels 0.382, 0.5 or 0.618. Either the price action is bounce back close to 0.382 level or 0.5 level or 0.618 level and then move back to the new resistance. This new resistance will be higher than the previous resistance at B. This new resistance can be at 1.27 or 1.618 from B.</p>
<p>Now while constructing Fibonacci Retracement and Extension, we will start from price A. Calculate the price difference between A and B. Take the three ratios 0.382, 0.5 and 0.618 for this price difference and plot them on your chart. Don&#8217;t worry, your trading software will do that nicely for you automatically but you need to understand the concept. Suppose the price difference between A and B is 100 pips. If the price bounces back from 0.382, we say that the retracement was 38.2%. If is bounces back from 0.5 level we say that the retracement was 50% and if it bounces back from 0.618 level, we say that the retracement was 61.8%.</p>
<p>After the market bounces back and takes a U turn at one of these retracement levels and rallies to the point D we say that the market has moved 27% above the original move AB or a total of 1.27%. Now if you want to become a serious trader no matter what market you trade, you should learn Fibonacci Retracement and Extension.</p>
<p>Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard. Get the Ultimate Swing Trading Software FREE. Learn Fibonacci Retracement!</p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>Should You Trade Futures Contracts Instead of Stocks?</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/should-you-trade-futures-contracts-instead-of-stocks/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/should-you-trade-futures-contracts-instead-of-stocks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 14:53:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[day trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[daytrading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futures contracts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futures trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading futures]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1222</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Leverage in futures contracts can be a very useful tool to increase your account balance, and your potential to make money is far greater in a futures account than day trading a stock account.  But managing a futures account takes a high degree of skill and self discipline.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why Day Trade Futures Indexes and not Stocks?</p>
<p>I began my trading career day trading stocks, mostly the blue chip variety.  And there is nothing wrong with day trading stocks, though generally speaking individual stocks do not have the volatility that many day traders crave.  To be sure, stock trading is a longer term proposition and are less prone to to dramatic movement.  For my money, I generally buy stocks to either swing trade, or hold onto for longer term growth.  On the other hand, you can often find individual stocks that oscillate widely on a daily basis and are perfect for day trading, but these instances are rare.  I can recall years ago that Jupiter Systems was a great day trading stock, as I haven’t traded it in years, I do not know the current status of this issue.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the financial requirement for trading index futures contracts lends itself favorably to the day trader.  The key element is margin, in this case.  When trading stocks, Regulation T becomes a prime issue, and Regulation T requires you to put up 50% of the contract value in order to trade the stock.  If you are trading GOOGLE in round lots, say a hundred shares, (google is trading in the low 500‘s) you will be forced to pony up a significant amount of cash in order to trade this stock.</p>
<p>Futures contracts are another matter all together.  Most futures contracts, specifically the emini variety, were specifically designed for day traders.  You can usually find brokerages that offer margin requirements in the range of $500 per contract.   Each point on, lets use the ES emini contract, is worth $50 dollars, and lets assume the ES index is trading in the 1000 dollar range.  Simple math tells us that you are controlling nearly $50,000 dollars with a paltry 500 margin requirement.  In trading, leverage is kind, when used properly.</p>
<p>Once simple consideration should always be forefront in your mind, though.  Leverage will maximize you returns and maximize you losses.  A skillful trader will manage his money effectively, never overextending himself/herself in a given trade.  In my trading, I never like to risk more than 10% of my futures account value on a given trade.  Some traders even lower this amount to no more than 5% on given trade.  This is, of course, a personal preference but the point is a simple one; because of the high degree of leverage in futures contracts, money management is of utmost importance.</p>
<p>For example:  Lets say you have established a $5000 futures trading account.  Generally speaking your futures broker will let you trade up to 5 contracts on this account.  It should be noted that most futures brokerages will not let you trade up to your account limit, and most set trading restriction at about 50% of your account value.  Anyway, there is no way that you should even consider trading your maximum level (5 contracts) on a given trade.  On a $5000 account I would be hesitant to trade more than I contract, maybe 2 if I felt very comfortable with the trade.  Overextending your trading account is a great way to end up broke.  Be judicious in the number of contracts you trade, and always use stops to make sure you don’t get caught in a run away trade in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>Leverage in futures contracts can be a very useful tool to increase your account balance, and your potential to make money is far greater in a futures account than day trading a stock account.  But managing a futures account takes a high degree of skill and self discipline.  There is a constant compulsion to overtrade your account, or trade an excessive number of contracts relative to your account size that has to managed with skill.  Further, it is your responsibility to exercise proper money management when trading futures contracts.</p>
<p>In summary, we have taken a close look at day trading stocks and futures contracts.  Stocks can be suitable investment vehicles to day trade, but because of the leverage requirements in futures contracts they are generally a better choice, but only if you are able to responsibly implement money management techniques that don’t expose you to excessive risk.   Money management is one of the most challenging aspects of trading, and one of the most difficult to master.  I suggested never risking more than 10% of your account on a given trade. </p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>Natural Born Traders: Fact or Fiction</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/natural-born-traders-fact-or-fiction/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/natural-born-traders-fact-or-fiction/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jan 2010 02:54:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[day trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[daytrading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futures trading taxation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/natural-born-traders-fact-or-fiction/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[dayThere is a common misconception that some people are born today trade.  In my experience, after knowing hundreds of day traders, I have never met a trader who could naturally trade without any training.  I will readily admit that some day traders are quicker than others to learn the basic principles of trading, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>dayThere is a common misconception that some people are born today trade.  In my experience, after knowing hundreds of day traders, I have never met a trader who could naturally trade without any training.  I will readily admit that some day traders are quicker than others to learn the basic principles of trading, and I would also go so far as to say that some traders have a difficult time learning even the rudimentary principles of traders.  After all, we are all gifted with different skill sets, and we are not all set up to be futures traders.</p>
<p>This contrasts sharply with some other fields of endeavor.  For example, I have a friend who is a natural born golfer.  For as long as I have known him he could hit a golf ball out of sight.  He can shoot even par no matter what the weather conditions.  He can even shoot par when he is intoxicated, which in itself is a miracle.  For whatever reason, this relationship does not hold true in the trading venue.  Perhaps it is because of the natural illogic of trading systems, or perhaps trading does not necessarily lend itself to natural ability.  I don’t have the answer to this question.</p>
<p>I am an eternal optimist, and have found that most individuals who are willing to put a certain amount of book work, a lot of practice, and dogged determination can learn to day trade very effectively.  I must add one caveat, however:  I have met several people, a very small percentage, who simply were unsuited to trade, and it became apparent very early in their training that trading just didn’t suit them.  Again, this is a very small percentage.</p>
<p>It is my opinion that great day traders are trained, seasoned and combine years of experience before they become truly great traders.  Unfortunately, trading on Wall Street is a very stressful field of endeavor and most day traders exit the trading game before they realize their potential.  Most major investment bank trading rooms are filled with young traders, with a a seasoned veteran overseeing operations of the trading operation.  I am 52 years old, and my limit for trading is about four hours.  My mind tires and my concentration wanes, but the trades I make are generally well thought out and years of experience keep me out of the bad trades and help me to recognize the good trades.</p>
<p>And that is the rub.  As a new trader you are going to make some bad trades, it’s inevitable and it is okay, if you learn from your mistakes.  On a given day, there are many set-ups that look enticing, but there be one factor that precludes that trade from being successful.  Your ability to discern that single negative factor is what will make you a good trader.</p>
<p>I want to make one very important point, though.  You don’t have to be a great day trader to make money in the market.  If you have learned a good system, have the proper self-discipline, and can execute your system with a high degree of accuracy&#8230;you can be very profitable in your trading endeavor.  You don’t have to be great, just good.  On the other hand, if you stick with trading for a long while you have the potential to be great.  The downside to this situation is humorous, though.  You will be the only one who knows you are great.   Unless you are trading for a large investment bank, you will have to be content with knowing you are a great trader and leave it at that.  But who really cares?   As long as your futures trading account reflects the excellent results you are enjoying, isn’t that enough?</p>
<p>In summary, learn your system inside and out.  In my day trading, I also learn a number of alternative systems inside out.  Work on the self-discipline required to make your trading effective.  Avoid entering trades based on emotion.  Further, always work to improve your trading, keep a journal of your trades, and review the trades that did not work out so you don’t repeat them.  And most importantly, be persistent and dogged in your approach to trading, strive for perfection, even though perfection is nearly impossible.  We all have the potential to be great traders, but most don’t reach deep enough to realize their potential.  Be one of the few that reaches his potential.</p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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		<title>Free Trading Course</title>
		<link>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/free-trading-course/</link>
		<comments>http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/2010/01/free-trading-course/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jan 2010 15:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>trader7757</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[free trading course]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress/?p=1217</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In my Free Mini Email Course, I will show and explain the tools and strategies you need to increase your success rate in the marketplace.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is an excellent free trading course with no obligation required on your part.  In the course, you will learn:</p>
<p>In my Free Mini Email Course, I will show and explain the tools and strategies you need to increase your success rate in the marketplace.</p>
<p>(1) The importance of psychology in price movement</p>
<p>(2) How to spot mega trends</p>
<p>(3) Understanding of technical price objectives</p>
<p>(4) How to picture price objectives</p>
<p>(5) How to trade with moving averages</p>
<p>(6) How to use point and figure trading techniques</p>
<p>(7) How to use the RSI indicator</p>
<p>(8) How to correctly use stochastics in your trading</p>
<p>(9) How to use the ADX indicator to capture trends</p>
<p>(10) How to capitalize on natural market cycles.</p>
<p>Plus, you will you will learn all about fibonacci retracements, MACD, Bollinger Bands and much more.</p>
<p>Just fill out the form and we’ll get you started right away.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ino.com/info/447/CDXXX/&#038;dp=0&#038;l=0&#038;campaignid=6"><br />
<h1>Click here for this free, no obligation trading course</h1>
<p></a></p>
<p style='text-align:left'>&copy; 2010, <a href='http://www.emini-maven.com/wordpress'>trader7757</a>. All rights reserved. </p>
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