Update on TARP Money

By trader7757, 7 December, 2009, No Comment

From the NY Times: U.S. Forecasts Smaller Loss From Bailout of Banks

The Treasury Department expects to recover all but $42 billion of the $370 billion it has lent to ailing companies since the financial crisis began last year, with the portion lent to banks actually showing a slight profit, according to a new Treasury report.

The new assessment of the $700 billion bailout program, provided by two Treasury officials on Sunday ahead of a report to Congress on Monday, is vastly improved from the Obama administration’s estimates last summer of $341 billion in potential losses from the Troubled Asset Relief Program. …

The officials said the government could ultimately lose $100 billion more from the bailout program in new loans to banks, aid to troubled homeowners and credit to small businesses.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 6 December, 2009, No Comment

As would be expected, much better-than-expected numbers for the November employment situation sent equities up sharply early in the day on Friday. But by close, stocks had come down significantly as many traders simply worried that equities have gotten too far ahead of economic conditions. Also, the dollar jumped on the release of the jobs report and weighed on materials and energy sectors. Still, for the day and week, most indexes posted moderate to sizeable gains.

Trading Concepts: Have you considered a serious trading education?

By trader7757, 4 December, 2009, No Comment

Many, but not all, traders approach their education in a haphazard method, piecing bits of knowledge together in hopes at arriving at a sound trading system that will serve them in a variety of trading situations. Of course, I attribute this approach to the staggering 70-90% (depending upon which source you quote) failure rate experienced by novice traders.

Want to change that statistic for yourself?

There has been one remarkable fellow who has been consistently churning out successful traders for more than fifteen years and has legions of past student to attest to his skill at both trading and teaching others to trade.

His name is Todd Mitchell and his company is TradingConcepts, Inc. and his site is packed with testimonials of grateful students. More importantly, though, is the thoroughly sound system for trading ES Emini contracts that Todd teaches. It’s his specialty, and has been since 1994, and Todd offers a variety of products, along with a lifetime guarantee of ongoing support for all who sign on to his programs.

Want a live trading room? Yea, he has one!

Want a well thought ought curriculum, learning manual, and personal mentor? You got it!

In talking with Todd last night one particular point stood out in my mind: Todd doesn’t see himself as a teacher for a semester or two, this guy see’s himself as a a lifetime mentor for his students. I have been following his career for several years and went through much of his material to research his technique, and found his system not just sound, but well grounded in trading principle and readily learned.

So I though I would give his firm a call.

Who do you think answered the phone? Todd, and this guys is a trading dynamo. I have been around traders for nearly 30 years, but Todd still has unbridled enthusiasm and desire to teach students. Heck, he got me excited about trading.

My point is a simple one…are you looking for bits and pieces of knowledge, or are you ready to step up and learn a unified system for trading that will serve you the rest of your trading career? Only you can answer that question.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 3 December, 2009, No Comment

Chart courtesy of AMP Trading, get a free demo account and paper trade. Call Chad at AMP Trading (800) 560-1640 for first class service. He does a great job.

ESZ9
For 12/04/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1110.83	1123.67	1104.17	1091.33	1084.67

Fed and Agency Announcements

Barack Obama Speaks

Chain Store Sales [Report]

Monster Employment Index [Report]

Jobless Claims
[Report]

8:30 AM ET

Productivity and Costs
[Report]

8:30 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET

ISM Non-Mfg Index
[Report]

10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
[Report]

10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

3-Yr Note Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

10-Yr Note Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

Eric Rosengren Speaks
12:30 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
[Report]

4:30 PM ET

Pertinent Consensus Analysis

Jobless Claims

Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/28, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims – Level	466 K	485 K	471 K to 495 K	457 K
4-week Moving Average – Level	496.5 K			481.25 K

Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the Nov. 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement that points squarely at improvement for total payrolls (prior week revised 4,000 lower). The four-week week average is lagging despite falling 14,250 in the week to 481,250. Continuing claims for the Nov. 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent. The slight gain in continuing claims hardly puts a dent into 10 prior weeks of improvement, improvement reflecting new hiring but also, and likely to a large degree, the expiration of benefits. Those receiving extended benefits rose nearly 60,000 to just under 600,000 in data for the Nov. 14 week. Markets moved higher but only briefly in reaction to the report, one that will firm expectations for solid improvement in tomorrow’s November employment report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 35,000 in the November 21 week to 466,000. With the four-week average also breaking below 500,000, down 16,500 to 496,500, the latest numbers indicate that companies have reduced the pace of printing pink slips. This may be the early beginnings of recovery in the labor market. But most economists believe that the return to normalcy will be extremely slow. Continuing claims also fell in the latest week, down 190,000 to 5.423 million in data for the November 14 week, but the change also reflects the expiration of benefits.

Productivity and Costs

Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm productivity – Q/Q change – SAAR	9.5 %	8.5 %	8.5 % to 8.8 %	8.1 %
Unit labor costs – Q/Q change – SAAR	-5.2 %	-4.2 %	-4.5 % to -4.0 %	-2.5 %

Highlights
Productivity in the second quarter was revised down with the Labor Department’s second estimate for the quarter. Third quarter productivity was revised to an annualized 8.1 percent surge from the initial estimate of a 9.5 percent boost. The market consensus had expected a revision to an 8.5 percent increase. Unit labor costs were revised up somewhat (less negative) to an annualized decline of 2.5 percent, compared to the original estimate of a 5.2 percent fall. The consensus estimate was for a 4.2 percent decline.

The downward revision to productivity was primarily due to a downward revision to growth of third quarter output in the nonfarm business sector-to 2.9 percent annualized from the initial 4.0 percent. Unit labor costs were revised up based on the lower growth in output and higher compensation estimates. Compensation growth was revised up to an annualized 5.4 percent from the initial third quarter number of 3.8 percent growth. Hours worked were little revised.

Year-on-year, productivity rose to up 4.0 percent in the third quarter from 1.9 percent in the second quarter. Year-ago unit labor costs fell to minus 1.4 percent from up 0.3 percent in the second quarter.

Today’s revisions indicated that labor costs are not as weak as previously believed but they are still subdued. The new numbers might have had a negative impact on equities, but the big news is the lower-than-expected jobless claims which boosted equity futures and bond yields.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm productivity in the third quarter surged 9.5 percent annualized, following a revised 6.9 percent boost in the second quarter. This was the largest gain in productivity since the third quarter of 2003, when it rose 9.7 percent. In tandem, unit labor costs dropped an annualized 5.2 percent after declining a revised 6.1 percent in the second quarter. The latest spike in productivity reflected both higher output and fewer hours worked. Looking ahead, we are likely to see a downward revision to third quarter productivity and upward revision to unit labor costs based on the second estimate for GDP growth in the same period. Real GDP was revised down to 2.8 percent from the advance estimate of 3.5 percent. The output component of productivity and unit labor costs is based on much of the same source data as GDP.

Monster Employment Index

Released on 12/3/2009 For November, 2009

	Prior	Actual
Monster Employment Index	120	119

Highlights
The Monster employment index edged down 1 point to 119 in November. Government and healthcare extended several months of weakness. Retail has also been weak. But on the strong side is transportation & warehousing, a group that offers a reading on supply-chain congestion and that may be signaling gains ahead for general economic activity. November’s big U.S. jobs report comes out tomorrow morning with expectations looking for solid improvement.

Chain Store Sales

Highlights
November’s chain-store reports are net positive for the economic outlook. November started off slow, hurt by warm weather, which cut demand for seasonal goods, and by consumer anticipation ahead of Black Friday discounts. The Thanksgiving weekend proved to be very positive for many chains — momentum that points to month-to-month improvement this month. Chain stores report their results in year-on-year terms, and a look back at last year shows that November had a higher base than October (remember October and September were hit by the credit panic). So even though sales rates were a bit weaker, November’s ex-auto ex-gas reading looks to be about flat. Auto sales, based on Tuesday’s unit-sale data, look to be strong while sales at gas stations will get a boost from higher prices and favorable seasonal adjustments. All in all, the retail outlook is favorable in what may be confirmation of improvement underway in the jobs market.