E-Mini Trading: Finding High Probability Setups

By , 15 July, 2011, No Comment

A quick scan of any of the popular online bookstores will produce a plethora of writers who claim to have a distinct set of high probability e-mini trading setups. For these traders, these setups are probably very successful and profitable. Unfortunately, any of these e-mini trading setups require a sizable software purchase or intricate analysis of candlestick formations. Whether all of these e-mini trading setups are profitable is beyond the scope of this article, but I am interested in presenting some generic setups that have been successful for a wide range of traders.

I emphasize trading with the trend and rely upon momentum for most of my profitable trades. I find when I trade against the trend, except in a few specific trades, I end up with a marginally profitable or unprofitable e-mini trade. For that reason, I’m going to recommend learning 2 “with the trend” trades and one countertrend trade that I have found to be reliable in my personal trading.

These traits include:

• Breakout and breakdown trades in and around areas of support/resistance
• Entering a trade in the trend after a retracement
• The Ambush Trade

Breakdown Trades in and around Areas of Support/Resistance

I probably don’t trade is often as some e-mini traders because I don’t feel there aren’t that many high probability setups available each day. But one of my favorite setups is at the open of the session and there is a support/resistance line in the proximity of the direction of the markets initial move. I will generally set a buy stop or sell stop 4 or 5 ticks above or below the resistance or support and wait for the price to come to my entry. I pay special attention to volume in this trade and like to see increasing volume is the price nears the support resistance line. Sheer momentum will often carry a price action 10 to 12 ticks past my entry for a nice stop. Often times, there is a great deal of institutional and professional trading volume in these moves and they are very successful.

Entering a Trade in the Trend after a Retracement

During the course of a trend it is common, almost probable, that the trending action will take a short break and retrace some of the ground it has gained. This makes sense, as at some point e-mini traders will begin to take profits and the trend will take a temporary sideways or downward break. Depending upon which author you care to read, the trend resumes about 70% or 80% of the time. So, as the retracement in a trend begins to wane, it is an ideal time to reenter the market in the direction of the trend and ride the second leg of the trend for a profit. I would say that this is probably the most common trade I take on a daily basis and it has a high degree of success.

The Ambush Trade

The ambush trade is one of the few countertrend e-mini trades that I truly have a high degree of confidence in initiating. With this trade the e-mini trader can draw a Fibonacci continuum on graph and wait until the countertrend retracement reaches between 50% and 62%. There is a high probability in this zone, commonly referred to as the ambush zone that the market will once again resume in the direction of the trend. This is a trade I take routinely when the price action has reached 55% of the entire length of the trend as measured by the Fibonacci retracement path.

A quick note here about probability is in order; because there is no such thing in will trading is a guaranteed trade. Every trade has a higher or lower probability of succeeding or failing. (Though it is hard to measure empirically) Even the best setups can fail miserably and disappoint. This does not, however, deter me from taking the same trade should I see it set up again. I understand probability, and even the best setups have a certain component of failure and their probability.

In summary, we have looked at two “with the trend” trades and identified the conditions that need to be present for them to have the highest potential for success. We have also looked at one “against the trend” trade that has a high potential for success. Since trading is based on probability, we know that even the best setups have the potential for failure and except that is a part of and e-mini trader’s mentality.

Real Live Trading Doesn’t Lie. Spend several days in my trading room and see if you can benefit from a fresh and unique view on trading e-mini contracts. Sign up for your free trading experience by clicking here.

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    10 straight days of winning trades!

    By , 16 April, 2011, No Comment

    Dear Friend,

    The train just keeps rolling alone. Though I can’t claim I win
    every day, the trading has been especially profitable and consistent.

    Isn’t time you started adding some extra income in your pocket?

    It can be done…I’ve helped dozens of students become successful.

    THERE IS AN ACTUAL LIVE TRADE ON THIS VIDEO

    Watch the video at the URL below and sign up for a free trial.



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    Weekly Summary from Live Trading Room

    By , 9 April, 2011, No Comment

    This weeks video highlights today’s trading in our live trading room at http://www.learn-to-trade-and-invest.com.  It was a week of light volume, brisk action and erratic price movement.  Just the same, we managed a profitable week.

    Make sure you take the opportunity to sign up for our FREE WEEK trial and see, first hand, my trading style and consistent results.  You can have the same results in your trading with work and study.  I look forward to seeing you in the trading room.   We traded the YM e-mini contract all week with reasonable success.

    Again, I look forward to seeing you in the trading room and believe you will find our e-mini trading style understandable and coherent.

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    More E-Mini Trading Setups with Support and Resistance

    By , 24 February, 2011, No Comment

    It’s not unusual to see traders using support and resistance to set up potential trades. The most common trade I see among novice investors is a set up that envisions the price action “bouncing” off an existing support or resistance lines. There are many versions of this particular trade, and it is not unusual to see small investors implement this trade over and over. To be sure, using support and resistance lines as potential setups is very common.

    Unlike the trade I described above, where the small traders are looking for a bounce off a support or resistance line, I am looking for a continuation through a support/resistance line. This makes sense at several levels. First and foremost, I’m a trend oriented trader and dislike trading against the trend. By definition, any bounce off a support or resistance line would entail a move against an existing trend, which is something I avoid, especially in a strong trend. Secondly, in order for the price action to move through a support or resistance line it takes a medium, at the least, and usually a strong push to pierce the line. Inevitably, this strong push creates excess momentum which is carried through for 10 or 15 additional ticks, and those additional ticks are the prize I am seeking to capture. This set up usually results in a very violent and short trade, as the momentum pushes the price upward or downward at a high rate of speed. It is an exciting trade to watch and even more exciting to initiate.

    When setting this particular trade up, I generally look for a strong support/resistance line that will intersect an established trend line. As an aside, I tend to prefer to take this trade to the short side as the market tends to move faster when heading downward. This can be attributed to panic selling, or long traders bailing out of short positions as the price action moves against them. In any event, I position my entry three or four points below the support/resistance line and wait for the price to come to me. Needless to say, it is never a good idea to chase the price action and it is rare for me to initiate a market order. I want to enter a trade at a point of my own choosing where I think I have the best chance of profiting.

    Once you become accustomed to spotting the set up, you’ll find it occurs two to three times daily. The trade is relatively reliable if it occurs in a trending market, and the trend does not necessarily have to be a strong one. On the other hand, I would avoid taking this trade when the market is in a well defined channel. Breakouts or breakdowns out of channel formations are generally unreliable and typically fail. False breakouts from a channel formation look very enticing from the onset, but after moving three or four ticks in your favor they tend to retreat back into the channel. Once in the channel, it is anyone’s guess where the price action may go as movement inside the channel is random, at best.

    In summary, we have looked at a trade using support/resistance lines. Instead of looking for a bounce off these lines, we have outlined a straight that entails a continuation of a trend through known support/resistance. We have noted that this trade is reliable when used in conjunction with a trending market, further we have cautioned against taking a straight out of very well-established channel.

    Real Live Trading Doesn’t Lie. Spend several days in my trading room and see if you can benefit from a fresh and unique view on trading e-mini contracts. Sign up for your free trading experience by clicking here.

    Day Trading: Knowing When to Exit a Losing Trade

    By , 1 January, 2011, No Comment

    In summary, I have noted that removing your emotions from trading is basically wishful thinking. On the other hand, we can learn to develop a realistic view of how the market is moving and trade accordingly. It’s no easy task, but with practice reality can become your primary viewpoint, not your wishes.

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    More Notes on FibGrid from a Technical Analysis Skeptic

    By , 25 December, 2010, No Comment

    Years of trading experience has reinforced a single, indisputable fact; prices tend to stop and start along common lines. The reason for these phenomena is poorly understood, as is the position of the exact point these lines utilize for their stopping and starting points. This observation is not an extraordinary revelation for anyone who has spent any length of time in front of a trading chart. Often called support and resistance lines, these stopping and starting points are evident when observing the price action on any futures or stock chart.

    The world of Efficient Market Theory would have us believe that these areas of support and resistance are the result of random market movement where supply and demand are in equilibrium. In an academic sense, this explanation makes good sense, as there does not seem to be a discernable pattern in either the lines of support or lines of resistance. It might also be useful to note that once a line of resistance is passed through by the price action, it often becomes a line of support, and vice versa when considering support lines. In short, it is common for most lines to be, at one point or another, both support and resistance; it all depends upon the time period under analysis and the movement of the underlying assets price action.

    There have been a wide variety of attempts to quantify the location, or predicted location, of these support/resistance lines. Floor traders pivot points have been a popular support/resistance predictive device for quite some time, and can be very useful. On the other hand, pivots points can often be far off the mark and, on some days, completely irrelevant. There is no reliable way to determine on which days the market will honor floor traders pivots and which day they ignore them. That, of course, creates a problem for traders and pivot points…it is difficult to discern which day to use pivot points and which day to ignore them.

    FibGrid on the other hand, has added much needed clarification to the support/resistance equation. As anyone who has consistently read this blog can attest, I have been a long time critic of the vast array of technical trading tools that have come to market. Everything from goofy robots, to elaborate charting programs have all been tested and found wanting. But this darn FibGrid actually works, and I have been forced to retract my iron clad condemnation of technical trading programs. It is most embarrassing.

    David Starr describes the program most eloquently:

    “The tendency of financial market movements to be proportional to other movements in ratios that have Fibonacci proportions is well documented. For example, many know that prices often retrace 38. %, 50%, or 61.8% of a move. Others know of some of the common projection ratios and we use many of these in our analysis. Less known is the FibGrid technique that projects a series of possible support and resistance levels based on projections from the beginning stages of the last bull market of significant degree.
    The amazing thing is how prices tend to find these support and resistance levels that were projected from prices years earlier (sometimes even decades earlier) and those projections provide levels that are meaningful in almost all timeframes, including short day-trading timeframes. This 2584 share chart of the emini Dow futures shows how price obeys FibGrid levels on intraday movements. The key values for the projection of these levels were set back in 2002 and the support/resistance levels shown today have not moved since then. Prices still find them.”
    I use FibGrid in my trading room and wouldn’t consider trading without the program running. There are many lines that appear in the FibGrid program that might normally be ignored by the average trader, yet time after time I notice price action stopping on these less than obvious lines, sometimes right to the exact tick.It would be difficult to calculate how many point I have made or been prevented from losing using the FibGrid program, so my endorsement is primarily anecdotal; but I am often astonished at the accuracy of this program in identifying support and resistance.

    I would like to point out that FibGrid, in and of itself, is not a complete trading system. This program will only make you existing trading system far more effective and profitable.

    FibGrid: It Even Converted this Hardened Skeptic

    By , 23 December, 2010, No Comment

    If you have read even a smattering of my articles about technical trading you will know that I am skeptical of just about every technical trading technique. I have been vocal in my criticism, often to the point of sarcasm. I have labeled chart formations pure bunk, poked fun at the Elliot Waves theorists, and howled at anything resembling Gann lines, Andrew’s Pitchfork and a host of other exotic sounding technical tools. In short, I have little use for most aspects of technical analysis. Then I became acquainted with FibGrid.

    I have a friend with whom I often spend time trading, David Palmer, and he uses a wide range of technical analysis tools. Needless to say, I have a field day poking fun at the endless array of odd looking lines and random chicken scratching that adorn his chart. I am sure he must tire of my endless criticism, as my needling can sometimes border on being cruel. Just the same, we continue to trade together as I have a tremendous amount of respect for his integrity and work ethic. To make matters worse, he is always trying to cajole me into giving his technical tools a try, which I generally dismiss as something akin to practicing witchcraft. Now that I think about it, I have no idea why he puts up with me; but we continue to actively trade together and I genuinely enjoy his company.

    One of his favorite topics is the use of a program called FibGrid. For months I dismissed this arcane sounding program as another over-hyped tool of dubious distinction. I refused to use the program on both ethical and philosophical grounds. As a testament to David’s tenaciousness, he finally got me to install the program on one of my minor charts “just to prove him wrong, once and for all.”

    Note to readers: I hate it when I am wrong about any aspect of my trading style, which is constantly evolving, and the remaining portion of this article is a frank admission that FibGrid has made my view of technical trading a bit cloudy.

    I had a chance to discuss the rationale behind the functioning of FibGrid with its designer David Starr. I have to admit I was impressed with the range of knowledge Mr. Starr possessed about trading, practical application for using the Fibonacci sequence, and his grasp of the history of trading. I have to admit that the guy actually made sense, which I consider unusual for traders purveying anything having to do with technical trading or technical trading indicators.

    To make a long story short, I started using FibGrid and the darn thing opened my eyes wide. In the case of e-mini trading, the Fibonacci lines generated by the program date back nearly a decade and are color coded in a hierarchy of importance.

    Still, I had not traded with the program and even though the theory sound plausible, I remained unconvinced that it would work in practice.

    I decided to put the program to the test, and started using FibGrid in my well attended trading room…in front of some seasoned and knowledgeable e-mini traders. I expected the program to flop miserably and I could relegate the software to a pile of other worthless software have accumulated over the years.

    Then something went horribly wrong, tragically amiss, shockingly awry.

    The darn program worked. Not only did the program work, it worked with amazing accuracy; and the more I used and understood the program, the more accurate it became. In short, FibGrid started to consistently add cash to my bottom line. A technical program had proven itself worthy to grace my chart and my world had been turned upside down.

    Gradually, I began to integrate the FibGrid lines into my well established methodology and have significantly increased my bottom line profit. To be sure, the program has made a significant dent in my profit margin and it only gets better as I learn the nuances of the program.

    Who would have thought that this curmudgeon price action trader could learn something from technical analysis? From the onset, let me say that it wasn’t me…I started using the program only to prove it was a sham, like all of the other technical analysis programs I have sampled.

    Want proof?

    Sign up for a free week in my trading room and watch me integrate FibGrid into my existing methodology. I will begrudgingly admit….it works like a charm and you are leaving good trades and a significant amount of money on the table if you aren’t using FibGrid.

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    What is the Market Going to do Today?

    By , 3 December, 2010, No Comment

    I am invariably asked this question as I begin each day in the trading room.  Will the market go up?  Will the market go down?  There is a gap up…does that mean the market is going to fill the gap immediately or maybe wait until later in the day?  I almost always disappoint the individual asking the question by answering, “I really don’t know.”

    Even worse, I really do not know.

    Predicting which direction the market will move can be one of the most embarrassing propositions for any trader to undertake.  Of course, you have at least a 50% chance of being right, which is some consolation. Generally speaking, though, I don’t have the slightest idea which way the market will move, and many find this disturbing.  As a trader, many think you ought to have some general idea as to which direction will move.  But I am a scalper, and I don’t concern myself with predicting which way the market will move.

    I am looking to catch areas of momentum and ride that momentum until it subsides.  Instead of knowing which way the market is going to move, I am simply hitchhiking a ride as the market moves in one direction or the other. I am quite comfortable reacting to the market as oppose to predicting what the market might do.

    Scalpers use a number of techniques to identify areas of potential momentum.  First and foremost, most useful information is contained in the actual price action in the market.  Oddly enough, price movement is often ignored in favor of a variety of oscillators, rate of change indicators and a number of exotic charting systems.  I am not interested in many of the popular predictive systems like Elliot Wave analysis, Gann Lines, or systems of a similar ilk, but I want to make sure I point out that my opinion does not imply these systems do not work.  My point is a simple one, these systems do not work for me and I do not use them.

    No, I am far more interesting in support and resistance, trend lines and momentum.  I have an important maxim: Trade primarily with the trend. I allow myself one countertrend trade per day, and that is usually one too many; but there are many very enticing set ups that occur countertrend and learning to lay off these trades is a challenging job.  Most traders find that countertrend trading is an unprofitable method in which to trade.  Further, the empirical scientific evidence bears out one indisputable fact; trading against the trend is far less profitable than trading with the trend.  For a scalper, trading with the trend the majority of the time is imperative.

    I also employ, in varying degrees, forms of Fibonacci analysis.  I have never been convinced that the underlying principle of Fibonacci is valid; that is, the market moves in natural cycles that can be predicted using the Fibonacci sequence.  One thing I know for sure is that enough people trade using Fibonacci analysis that the system works.  Whether Fibonacci works because so many people use it or it is intrinsically valid is of little consequence to me; I don’t care why it works, I only care that it does work and therefore employ some tenets of the system in my trading.

    In summary, I am a scalper and I am interested in momentum in the direction of the trend.  I don’t use predictive trading systems; I rely upon price action, support and resistance, trend lines, and some limited use of Fibonacci analysis.  I keep it simple and try not to overload my methodology with extraneous charts and unnecessary information.  Scalping is not for everyone, but it is a very effective method in which to trade.

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