Can the Market Be Wrong?

By , 14 August, 2009, No Comment

This begs the question for the trader: Is the Market Wrong at Times?
Well, the answer is an easy one. The market is always right, and if you trade why you think is right versus what the market has deemed to be right you are in for an unprofitable ride.

Pivots and Fed Announcements

By , 14 August, 2009, No Comment
ESU9
For 08/14/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESU9 1019.83 1026.17 1008.92 1002.58 991.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

S

Some good stuff in the offing today, though I doubt it will have the effect of yesterdays early morning roller coaster.  The central theme in the market has, and will continue to be, where we are in terms of a recovery in the current recession.   I suppose I expect to see, in the coming months, a series of fits and starts.  That is, the recession will not suddenly disappear, but some indicators will indicate progress, and some indicators will indicate regression in digging out of the recession hole.  Best of trading to all.

ES Emini Trading and Spectacular Movement Today

By , 13 August, 2009, No Comment

You have often read my admonitions about hanging in the markets around 7:30am, especially when there are some important Fed announcements in the offing. Many times, the action can be so fast that you will end up blowing straight through your stops. Check out the market movement at 7:30 this morning and be glad you weren’t long:

disaster on the ES emini chart in pre market trading

disaster on the ES emini chart in pre market trading

The market cliff dove, and blasted its way downward. This is a 5-minute chart and most of the movement came in the first minute.  Now for the rest of the day:

ES emini action during trading hours

ES emini action during trading hours

The market never really found itself after this mornings retail and employment reports and moved up in a protracted trend, but not after some real fireworks early on.  The market had been moving steadily north all night and the economic news sent it into a short selling period, which I avoided participating in.

Again, watch those 7:30 announcement dates and make sure you are not an unwilling participant in a violent market swing.    Couple of nice trades today, and then a trade that I bailed on early.  I chickened out….

From INO: Some Ideas on Stop-Loss

By , 13 August, 2009, No Comment

Trading with Stop-Loss

Today I’d like everyone to welcome Michael Michaud from Invest2Success.com.

===================================================================

Do you use stops on all your trades? Trading without stops is the ego wanted to never be held accountable to admit that a position was a mistake if a certain level is breached or if a certain set of circumstances play out in an unexpected manner.

Let the market take you out. This takes your ego out of the decision – this decision on what stop level to exit should be calculated before entering the trade. Again you want to prevent your mind playing tricks by rationalizing a new reason to hold on to a poor performer. I review my trading journal each day in order to remind myself of the #1 Entry Driver for the positions and key stop levels. If any of these are broken, I have lost the edge projected and should exit such busted trade’s immediately.

Most traders think of stops relating to their exit of a position, but one of the most preferred entry techniques also involves a stop. A stop order to buy (or “buy stop”) becomes a market order when the price trades or is bid at or above the stop price. A stop order to sell (or “sell stop”) becomes a market order when the price trades or is offered at or below the stop price. The objective here is to only buy when the price takes out a significant prior high, or sell when the price breaks to a meaningful new low point. In this way I make the trade prove to me that it wants to make the anticipated move. If it doesn’t, I don’t get into the trade. Many times this method is far superior to the limit order technique of trying to buy below the current market price or sell above the current market price. What I generally have found is that limit orders hoping for a better price are merely another ego behavior to believe that we can tell the market what we want it to do. In turn when I missed out on getting filled due to a tight limit order, I was often left watching from the sidelines as the price mounted a continued trend. The stop entry has triggered me into some trends that I would have otherwise missed.

You should define an initial stop point for your trade, before you enter the trade. This determines the risk you are willing to take. The whole purpose of a stop in my opinion is to define the point at which the trend is invalidated. The potential reward should preferably be three or more times the risk you are willing to take. Next, you need to determine if a position is working for you, how will you protect your profits? This is known as a trailing stop. In a good uptrend, I prefer to use a close under the 10-day exponential moving average as my trailing stop, unless I am using another method as my driver in the trade.

At this point, let me explain my preferred stop method. I tend to use “closing stops”, meaning I don’t want to place my stop order intraday to be gunned by the floor or taken out by day-trader noise. Many battles are fought during the trading day, but the war is won at the close. We want to wait to see who wins the war at the end of each session. If XYZ stock is going to close against my closing stop level, then I place a market order to close the position in the final minutes of trading (if you miss this exit as subscriber for any reason, you can still place a market order to exit on the next morning’s opening price). If the stock happens to be within a few cents of this level and it is unclear, I will wait for the close, and if my level breaks, I will make sure to sell it at the market on the next trading day’s opening price. This has kept me from getting whipped out of a number of good swing trades during the day, while still giving me the ability to exit when the stock has proved me wrong by day’s end. Some worry that a stock may move too far against them by the close compared to an intraday stop, and occasionally a stock will be filled well against our closing stop by the end of the day. But that risk is small compared to the bigger risk of getting whipped out of a position intraday, only to have it post a strong reversal in our favor and be off to the races. I call these “Bend But Don’t Break” points. You want to wait for the end of that bar’s close. If the chart is a weekly chart, wait until the end of the week’s close to stay with the true trend while others will tend to get faked out.


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Todays pivot info, Fed and Fed agency announcements

By , 13 August, 2009, No Comment
ESU9
For 08/13/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESU9 1013.75 1025.25 999.75 988.25 974.25

Todays Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Retail Sales
[Report][Star]
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
[Report][djStar]
8:30 AM ET
RBC CASH Index
[Bullet
9:00 AM ET
Money Supply
[Bullet
4:30 PM ET
Some interesting announcements on today’s docket, especially early on in the day.  Again, some possible market volatility as the market digest where we stand in the current recession.

pivot and Fed announcements

By , 12 August, 2009, No Comment
ESU9
For 08/12/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESU9 1005.83 1018.67 997.92 985.08 977.17
Treasury Budget
[Report][djStar]
2:00 PM ET
The FOMC is going to make some statements regarding interests rates and whether or not they are going to continue some of the programs that have kept the economy on life support.  I would think it would be important to know about when those announcements will be made, as the market usually goes into unpredictable gyrations on news from the Fed.
The general consensus is that the Fed will pretty much stay the course, but many are looking at the Fed’s programs of buying treasuries…etc.  So it ought to be an interesting day.  For once, I will need to trade more than just the chart in front of me, as these external announcements send the market careening willy-nilly.  Usually on fairly irrelevant news.

Decision Bar

By , 11 August, 2009, 4 Comments

My stats and the unusually large amount of email I get often question me about the effectiveness of using the Decision Bar trading system. My stats and the unusually large amount of email I get often question me about the effectiveness of using the Decision Bar trading system.

Todays Pivot R1 R2 S1 S2 and Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

By , 11 August, 2009, No Comment
ESU9
For 08/11/2009

How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESU9 1010.75 1014.00 1004.50 1001.25 995.00

Redbook
[Bullet
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
[Bullet
10:00 AM ET

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