ES Emini Trading for 7-8-09

By , 8 July, 2009, No Comment

emini chart for 7-9-09

emini chart for 7-9-09

Charts courtesy of AMP Trading

I didn’t get a chance to trade much today because of some prior commitments, but made one trade I limited out.   Most of my trading buddies said they tore it up staying short, short, and more short.

Looks like there was a nice countertrend trade toward the end of the day, which is often the case as speculators take profits.  Of course, I cannot be sure that was the case.  Anyway, have a good look at the chart and notice the nice entries at the 100 and -100 lines on the CCI.

Good luck trading, and have a great day tomorrow.

The emini Trade you Don’t Take

By , 8 July, 2009, No Comment

Trading is a funny thing, especially after you have stared at an emini chart for four or five hours.  A trader can see possibilities in every price move, and usually these potential trades are losers.  Learning to control your emotions and stay disciplined in your trading is one of the most difficult aspects of trading.  To be sure, it is, in my opinion, the MOST important aspect of trading.   In my opinion most traders fritter away their money by making emotional trades they should never have taken.

Emini trading is the process of discerning proper set ups and taking those set ups in a disciplined way.  In past posts have described a number of filtering mechanisms I use to keep me out of bad trades.

1. I try to never take counter trend trades

2. I strike an 89 period SMA and usually take short trades when the price action is significantly below the 89 period average.   When the price action is significantly above the 89 period SMA I concentrate on long trades.

3.  I use DecisionBar, with it’s dynamic support and resistance lines, to get a read on the market range and breadth.

4.  I set specific stops and limits with my trades using the Absolute Range Indicator.

But here is the problem most emini traders experience, they become emotionally attached to their trade. Sometimes the very best looking set up will result in a loss, and there is nothing you can do, as a trader, to change this besides exit the trade and look for a trade.  The problem many traders have is an emotional attachment to their trade…since the trade looked so well in the set up stage, surely it will eventually result in a nice gain.  This is not true.

A good trader learns to cut his losses and lock in his gains in a disciplined manner.  A good trader has no emotional involvement in any trade he makes.  It is akin to a math equation, when it’s time to exit a trade….it’s time to exit a trade.   On the other hand, I have witnesses hundreds of traders hang on to bad trades and ride them right in the ground.

Why?

The have invested their emotions in the trade and are convinced that it should be a good trade.  The market is always right, you are always wrong.  It’s a simple axiom, yet one of the hardest to conquer when trading the emini contracts.  Or any other contract, for that matter.

This is no simple skill to master, as it requires you to think akin to a computer.  After all, we all have emotions, and we all want out trades to succeed.   But a certain percentage of trades are not going to profitable.  That is a fact of trading, so cut your losses when it’s time and find a new trade.

Just a quick note

By , 8 July, 2009, No Comment

We had a heck of a storm the other night and my computer computer fell victim to some lightening.  I have put back most of the posts but have unfortunately lost the last week.  I will attempt to reconstruct much of what I have written as time permits.   Luckily, I had a backup that restored most of the posts.  My apologies for the inconvenience.  Thanks for reading my blog

Sorry, server went down and lost 1 week of posts

By , 5 July, 2009, No Comment

I have to apologize as I had a server issue that deleted the last weeks worth of posts. Damn

Do you trade the Emini Using Stops

By , 25 June, 2009, No Comment

I hope so.

I think it is important for traders to use specific targets that address their loss tolerance and profit targets.  There is a temptation to ride losses too long in hopes that the market will come back to a break even.  This can be a tragic strategy and result in unacceptable losses when trading the emini contracts.

Why would people ride their losses?

Emotional involvement in trades is generally the culprit in any kind of trading, and especially for scalpers, as the markets swings in intraday trading, sometimes violently.   It’s is this emotional involvement in a trade that accounts for a tremendous number of trading losses.  It’s more than difficult to accept a trade as a loser and move on.  Say,  for example, you get what you consider to be a perfect setup and take a trade, and most perfect setups (whatever they may be) have resulted in handsome profits.  The assumption, then, is that every trade where that setup is utilized will result in a winner, sooner or later.  Bad strategy.   There is no foolproof trade, and every trade (no matter how nice the setup) results in a loss.

It’s difficult for me, and most traders, to accept that a certain trade has resulted in a loss.  After all, the 5 identical trades before it produced sizable gains.  Learning to cut your losses and move on to another trade is one of the most difficult exercises a trader must execute.  Set your loss tolerance and if you blow out of a trade, move on.

This is much easier said and done, and even with stops in place there is a temptation to drag a stop a couple of points lower to salvage a trade that is not working out.  I’ve been there, I’ve done it, and I’ll probably do it again.  It is always wrong to do, though.  My experience has taught me that I enter bad trades when I try to pick a counter trend trade.  These trades can be very tempting, but price exhaustion is one of the most difficult trades to execute successfully.  For that reason, I like to strike an 89 point SMA and when the market is significantly below the 89 point SMA I stick with short trades, and visa versa for price action above the SMA.   This should keep you nicely in the trend.  It also weeds out those disasterous countertrend trades.

In volatile markets I detest trailing stops, and I generally don’t use them.  I am not against moving a stop loss up, but the normal market action often gets you out of a good trade before completion.  Be careful using trailing stops, while they sound great in theory, they often have to be very wide to be of any real value.  For myself, I prefer to bracket trade, using 3 point (12 tick) stops for my loss and profit targets.  I have found this to be fairly flexible for trading in normal markets, and in volatile markets, which we saw early this year, I allow 4 point stops (16 ticks).  These numbers are for trading the ES contract.  For the YM contract, I like to use 25 points bracketing long and short positions.

But remember, don’t attempt any trade without preset stop loss and profit targets established.  Good luck trading and come back.

Emini Trading for 06-23-09

By , 23 June, 2009, No Comment

Emini tradin for the posted date, and some observations on futures trading.

Should you use Tick Charts or Time Charts

By , 23 June, 2009, 3 Comments

In heavily traded and trending markets I like tick charts, and in more stagnant, choppy or consolidating markets I use time charts. The best idea is to use the charts to practice and flip back and forth with your charting software. You will be amazed at how the greatest set-up with a 233 tick chart looks when you see the same information graphed in a 3 minute sequence.

Goldman Sachs: Record Bonuses

By , 21 June, 2009, No Comment

Goldman Sachs staff can look forward to the biggest bonus payouts in the firm’s 140-year history after a spectacular first half of the year … Staff in London were briefed last week on the banking and securities company’s prospects and told they could look forward to bumper bonuses if, as predicted, it completed its most profitable year ever.

In April, Goldman said it would set aside half of its £1.2bn first-quarter profit to reward staff, much of it in bonuses. It is believed to have paid 973 bankers $1m or more last year, while this year’s payouts are on track to be the highest for most of the bank’s 28,000 staff, including about 5,400 in London.

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In the just when you thought you had heard it all category, this is really quite a revelation.   Of course, does anyone besides myself wonder why Goldman came through the credit crisis in such great shape?

Have anyone taken a look at the composition, especially past employers, of the late Bush-era and present Obama staff members.  Guys like Paulsen…..

Hmmmm……

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