Do You Keep a Trading Diary?

By , 10 February, 2010, 1 Comment

The point of keeping a trading diary is to remind me that I’ve must remain a student of trading at all times. Regardless of whether I’ve traded 25 years, or 25 months, or 25 minutes it is important to keep the student mentality. In my opinion, this is where many traders fall down. Learning to trade is an ongoing process, and the market has many moods and unique price action. Sometimes it can be months or years before similar situations arise, and it’s handy and useful to note these anomalies so that you might be better prepared the next time they occur.

From PBS, An Interview with David Stockman and some Shocking Remarks

By , 6 February, 2010, 1 Comment

SAUL SOLMAN: David Stockman, former Michigan congressman and Ronald Reagan’s budget chief, who’s also toiled in the private sector at Wall Street’s Solomon Brothers, private equity firm the Blackstone Group, and his own controversial private equity fund.

Charges against him for accounting fraud there were filed and later dropped, and he settled a dispute with the SEC just last week. Stockman’s now working on a book about the financial crisis called “The Triumph of Crony Capitalism,” and has come out in favor of the president’s bank reform efforts.

David Stockman, welcome.

DAVID STOCKMAN, former Reagan administration budget director: Thank you.

PAUL SOLMAN: So, you like the Obama banking proposal. Why?

DAVID STOCKMAN: I would give the administration credit for trying to move us back to something that’s a lot saner than trillion-dollar banks being propped up by the taxpayers, which is exactly where we are today.

The fact is, Wall Street is entirely involved in capital markets activity, which is fine. But that’s free market activity. They shouldn’t be involved in it if they have got deposit insurance and if they have got the Fed window behind them. That’s for deposit banks, not for gunslingers and for hedge funds and for capital market players.

PAUL SOLMAN: But you were a gunslinger, right?

DAVID STOCKMAN: Yes. But I didn’t ask for any — I didn’t ask for any deposit insurance that the taxpayer is going to back up.

Please, Wall Street banks, don’t come and ask the taxpayer of this country who’s out in Green Bay Wisconsin, can’t pay his mortgage, can barely put food on his table, to have the safety net of the Fed and the Deposit Insurance and the Treasury of the United States. It’s an outrageous ask, and they ought to be ashamed of themselves.

PAUL SOLMAN: Listening to you, I’m struck by the fact that I can imagine critics on the left saying exactly the same thing.

DAVID STOCKMAN: I’m mortified by that thought. But, at some point, you have to ask, what’s good policy? And we have gotten into this syndrome, I think, over the last 20 years, where policy of the Treasury and of the Fed has been dictated by Wall Street, that, if Wall Street threatens to have a hissy fit, or the stock market is going to go down, the Fed has basically capitulated and is creating a very unstable and dangerous financial system in our economy.

PAUL SOLMAN: The president’s first bank proposal a few weeks ago, to tax financial institutions based on their size and risk-taking, stirred Stockman to write a New York Times op-ed.

“The baleful reality is that the big banks,” he wrote, “the freakish offspring of the Fed’s easy money, are dangerous institutions, deeply embedded in a bull market culture of entitlement and greed. This is why the Obama tax is welcome.”

We asked the CEO of Bank of New York Mellon, Robert Kelly, to respond.

ROBERT KELLY, chief executive officer, BNY Mellon: The reality is, banks provide millions of jobs in our economy. The reality also is, is that we have had a one-in-80-year event. We also have a gigantic economy, which you can’t run with a lot of really small banks.

DAVID STOCKMAN: Well, you know, those are the talking points from Wall Street, and I take strong issue. The fact is, the heart of the bailout was AIG. That was $80 billion worth of CDS that was going to go sour.

PAUL SOLMAN: CDS meaning?

DAVID STOCKMAN: Credit default swaps, OK? And we weren’t bailing out AIG. We were bailing out the banks, because the banks had bought a lot of low-caliber or subprime loans, wrapped some insurance around it from AIG, and said, presto, we have a AAA, a security on our balance sheet.

They didn’t. They had garbage on their balance sheet. And the bailout was to make sure that they didn’t suffer multi $10 billion write-downs on that AIG-supported loan.

PAUL SOLMAN: So, if you had been in the administration after Lehman Brothers, you wouldn’t have supported bailing out AIG?

DAVID STOCKMAN: No, absolutely not. It was the single most, you know, drastic error in policy in modern history, going back to the 1930s. This was exactly the wrong thing to do.

It’s destroyed any basis for fiscal discipline in the United States. I was a member of Congress, and I know how they think. And they think by analogy. If you did it for John, you have got to do it for Bob. There is no way that any congressman is ever going to vote against farm subsidies or ethanol subsidies or housing subsidies or anything else, refrigerator subsidies, once we have made this tremendous bailout for Wall Street, and we stepped into AIG.

PAUL SOLMAN: Well, spoken like a true gunslinger, but you would have been taking an enormous risk.

DAVID STOCKMAN: It’s part of the capitalist system. You know, if an investment bank gets in trouble, it ought to fail. If a hedge fund gets in trouble, it ought to fail.

The idea that our system is so fragile that the failure of Lehman Brothers or even Goldman Sachs, which could have happened, allegedly, in the next few days, would have brought the whole system down, I think, is baloney. I think it’s an urban legend that was created by Wall Street.

PAUL SOLMAN: Almost everyone I talk to says too big to fail is a bad idea, and, yet, in Republican and Democrat administrations alike, it has been the de facto policy. Why?

DAVID STOCKMAN: I think part of the problem is that Wall Street has this tremendous army of lobbyists, who strangle in the cradle any decent idea before it can even see — see the light of day.

PAUL SOLMAN: Which sounded a lot like Stockman’s political polar opposite, Paul Krugman.

PAUL KRUGMAN, columnist, The New York Times: This is as raw an incidence of the power of money in preventing us from doing something that everybody knows we should do that I have ever seen.

PAUL SOLMAN: And now both men favor a new tax on risk-taking financial institutions, which prompted one last question for Ronald Reagan’s budget director, famous for the starve-the-beast argument, that tax cuts would force government to cut spending.

Do you still feel that way?

DAVID STOCKMAN: I think the lesson of the last 25 years is that it doesn’t work. You can keep cutting taxes until you reach the point where this year — or the year just ended, we spent $3.6 trillion, and we only collected $2.2 trillion.

So, we are now so far out of kilter that it’s irrelevant. Taxes are going to have to be raised. And the beast needs to be trimmed back. But it can’t be starved enough to even begin to cope with our fiscal problem. And this is where I think all the politicians are faking in both parties, but the Republicans especially.

The Republicans think their mission in life is to cut taxes. Sorry, game — game over. We’re now in the tax-raising business. And we’re going to be in the tax-raising business for the next decade.

PAUL SOLMAN: David Stockman, thank you very much. Thank you.

How to Trade ES Emini Gaps

By , 5 February, 2010, No Comment

From the onset, let’s characterize a gap as a significant break in the price action to the upside, or sometimes to the downside. Generally speaking, a gap will look like a missed bar followed by the resumption of the trading action at a significantly higher or lower level than the level of the gap origination.

Homeowners Walking Away From Homes

By , 5 February, 2010, No Comment

From the New York Times

“New research suggests that when a home’s value falls below 75 percent of the amount owed on the mortgage, the owner starts to think hard about walking away, even if he or she has the money to keep paying.

In a situation without precedent in the modern era, millions of Americans are in this bleak position. Whether, or how, to help them is one of the biggest questions the Obama administration confronts as it seeks a housing policy that would contribute to the economic recovery.”

You know, I am one of those guys that figures that when you sign a contract you are bound by the terms of the contract.  We all seem to make bad financial decisions from time to time, but the new “American Way” seems to be a bit mercenary in terms of compliance.  It goes something like this, “if this contract goes well for me, I’m all in, but if things don’t work out so well, I’m outta here.”  I will grant that a great number of homeowners now find themselves underwater on their home valuations, and this may or may not be long term situation, but walking away from a home with a mortgage default is certainly a new method of viewing consumer responsibility.  The general line of thinking is let someone else, a third party, eat the loss and you walk away without responsibility.  Why even have a mortgage agreement to start with?

The New York Times Reporter continues,

““Since the beginning of December, I’ve advised 60 people to walk away,” said Steve Walsh, a mortgage broker in Scottsdale, Ariz. “Everyone has lost hope. They don’t qualify for modifications, and being on the hamster wheel of paying for a property that is not worth it gets so old.”

I can’t deny that walking away from a home where you are upside down solves the homeowners problems, but what sort of broker recommends defaulting on a home?  It just defies the way we have done business in this country, contractual law, and moral responsibility.  No one forced these homeowners to buy homes at skyhigh prices, they made the decision to buy of their own volition.  It appears that most of these homeowners are still employed and just tired of overpaying for a home in  which they misjudged the future price.  Am I missing something here?

On the other hand, if a homeowner has lost his income and can not make his payments, well, that is another story.  But if the homeowner is still employed and his payments are still part of the budget he calculated to pay for the house, I find it difficult to justify walking away from the home because you don’t like the mess in which you have put yourself.  Prices go up and down, that is the nature of a market driven economy, and most of us have to live with the consequences of rising and falling prices.  On the other hand, there seems to be a distinct group who doesn’t like the downside of the market driven economy and chooses not to participate.  I’ve heard it all, I guess.

Do You Trade the TRIN?

By , 5 February, 2010, No Comment

The TRIN was developed in 1967 by Richard Arms and is commonly referred to as the Arms Index. It is a widely used index among institutional traders, and used less by individual traders. This can be attributed to the difficult nature of interpreting the indicator, as it contrarian by nature. The TRIN has it’s roots in the analysis of volume, or the breadth of the mark

Fibonacci Retracement and Extension – The Holy Grail in Trading!

By , 26 January, 2010, 2 Comments

After the market bounces back and takes a U turn at one of these retracement levels and rallies to the point D we say that the market has moved 27% above the original move AB or a total of 1.27%. Now if you want to become a serious trader no matter what market you trade, you should learn Fibonacci Retracement and Extension.

Should You Trade Futures Contracts Instead of Stocks?

By , 24 January, 2010, No Comment

Leverage in futures contracts can be a very useful tool to increase your account balance, and your potential to make money is far greater in a futures account than day trading a stock account. But managing a futures account takes a high degree of skill and self discipline.

Natural Born Traders: Fact or Fiction

By , 23 January, 2010, 2 Comments

dayThere is a common misconception that some people are born today trade. In my experience, after knowing hundreds of day traders, I have never met a trader who could naturally trade without any training. I will readily admit that some day traders are quicker than others to learn the basic principles of trading, and I would also go so far as to say that some traders have a difficult time learning even the rudimentary principles of traders. After all, we are all gifted with different skill sets, and we are not all set up to be futures traders.

This contrasts sharply with some other fields of endeavor. For example, I have a friend who is a natural born golfer. For as long as I have known him he could hit a golf ball out of sight. He can shoot even par no matter what the weather conditions. He can even shoot par when he is intoxicated, which in itself is a miracle. For whatever reason, this relationship does not hold true in the trading venue. Perhaps it is because of the natural illogic of trading systems, or perhaps trading does not necessarily lend itself to natural ability. I don’t have the answer to this question.

I am an eternal optimist, and have found that most individuals who are willing to put a certain amount of book work, a lot of practice, and dogged determination can learn to day trade very effectively. I must add one caveat, however: I have met several people, a very small percentage, who simply were unsuited to trade, and it became apparent very early in their training that trading just didn’t suit them. Again, this is a very small percentage.

It is my opinion that great day traders are trained, seasoned and combine years of experience before they become truly great traders. Unfortunately, trading on Wall Street is a very stressful field of endeavor and most day traders exit the trading game before they realize their potential. Most major investment bank trading rooms are filled with young traders, with a a seasoned veteran overseeing operations of the trading operation. I am 52 years old, and my limit for trading is about four hours. My mind tires and my concentration wanes, but the trades I make are generally well thought out and years of experience keep me out of the bad trades and help me to recognize the good trades.

And that is the rub. As a new trader you are going to make some bad trades, it’s inevitable and it is okay, if you learn from your mistakes. On a given day, there are many set-ups that look enticing, but there be one factor that precludes that trade from being successful. Your ability to discern that single negative factor is what will make you a good trader.

I want to make one very important point, though. You don’t have to be a great day trader to make money in the market. If you have learned a good system, have the proper self-discipline, and can execute your system with a high degree of accuracy…you can be very profitable in your trading endeavor. You don’t have to be great, just good. On the other hand, if you stick with trading for a long while you have the potential to be great. The downside to this situation is humorous, though. You will be the only one who knows you are great. Unless you are trading for a large investment bank, you will have to be content with knowing you are a great trader and leave it at that. But who really cares? As long as your futures trading account reflects the excellent results you are enjoying, isn’t that enough?

In summary, learn your system inside and out. In my day trading, I also learn a number of alternative systems inside out. Work on the self-discipline required to make your trading effective. Avoid entering trades based on emotion. Further, always work to improve your trading, keep a journal of your trades, and review the trades that did not work out so you don’t repeat them. And most importantly, be persistent and dogged in your approach to trading, strive for perfection, even though perfection is nearly impossible. We all have the potential to be great traders, but most don’t reach deep enough to realize their potential. Be one of the few that reaches his potential.

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