It might surprise you to know that many days I trade I really don’t pay attention to whether the market goes up or down. Does that sound crazy to you? How can you trade and not follow where the market stands at a given moment?
I am scalper, that’s why. I am looking for very short fluctuations in the markets to exploit and earn 12 ticks, or three points. It’s my only goal in trading. I don’t care if the market it going up or down as I am as comfortable being long as I am being short the ES Emini contract. All I seek is movement and the ability to ascertain which way the market may move for the next ten minutes.
I don’t let any trades go overnight, ever.
I don’t let a winning trade turn into a losing trade. (This is sometimes easier said than done)
I have a system, and I never “guess” what the market might be going to do. The variables in my system must meet certain criteria before I trade.
If I don’t feel good about a potential trade, I don’t take it.
I use an 89 period SMA and if the price action is significantly above the average, I only take long trades and, conversely, if the price action is significantly below the average I take only short trades.
I avoid counter-trend trades like the plague, yet I find myself taking the occasional counter-trend trade. Don’t ask me why, I do not know why.
I use the MACD, CCI, Average True Range, DecisonBar and Stochastic indicators in combination to select my trade.
The entry points for the CCI and Stochastic indicators must be in agreement for me to take a trade.
I never break my entry rules.
I pay close attention to pivot points, and Fibonacci Retracement levels. I use these tools as background information, not primary indicators.
I recommend most people start with the YM contract, and then only after a month or so of paper trading where the trader can consistently profit on a daily basis.
There are no born traders, there are well trained, intuitive traders.
My mother thinks trading is for idiots. (I hope she is wrong, on this one)
On the CCI, pay careful attention to the +100 and -100 levels, they are your entry points.
On the stochastic indicator, pay careful attention to long and short crosses.
Never trade without stops, ever. Never trade without stops, ever.
Have a target profit point, too.
I sometimes let trades run, but you often risk giving back all your gains when you implement this strategy. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
Decision Bar has kept me out of more terrible trades than I care to think of.
A change in the direction of the divergence line on the MACD might be a good reason to consider exiting a trade.
I never double down on a losing trade.
I’ve never been able to make head or tail of chart formations, as they make no sense to me. They may work for some people, I ignore them. To me, Head and Shoulders is shampoo, not a potential entry point.
While you should profit most days, there will be days when you don’t. That’s okay.
Okay, it was a great day to trade, lots of nice set-ups and the market moved in a fairly orderly fashion. The stuff we traders just love to see, although it did start the day a bit choppy and I stayed on the sidelines until it settled down some.
You have often read my admonitions about hanging in the markets around 7:30am, especially when there are some important Fed announcements in the offing. Many times, the action can be so fast that you will end up blowing straight through your stops. Check out the market movement at 7:30 this morning and be glad you weren’t long:
The market cliff dove, and blasted its way downward. This is a 5-minute chart and most of the movement came in the first minute. Now for the rest of the day:
The market never really found itself after this mornings retail and employment reports and moved up in a protracted trend, but not after some real fireworks early on. The market had been moving steadily north all night and the economic news sent it into a short selling period, which I avoided participating in.
Again, watch those 7:30 announcement dates and make sure you are not an unwilling participant in a violent market swing. Couple of nice trades today, and then a trade that I bailed on early. I chickened out….
I thought I would talk a bit about trade entry today and how divergent indications on some of the oscillators I use indicates the need for caution. Emini trading is a process of choosing the highest percentage trades, and conversely, avoiding the lowest percentage trades. The ultimate goal of any trading system is to maximize the binary result of any trade, and I think that is an important point to remember. Trading is really just a matter of entering when your chances are best for a strong trade.
It was difficult to enter trades at the correct point and I was forced, several times, to use several indicators to in addition to the CCI today. DecisionBar was very helpful as the CCI failed to give clear entry signals. One of the two will usually augment the other, today DecisionBar gave the better entrys, while the CCI had me scratching my head.
The indicator generally is used to in determining whether a commodity is overbought or oversold, which is indicated by reading above or below the 100 and -100 lines. The general thinking is that when the indicator is over the 100 line, for example, the price will correct to more normal levels between the 100 lines.
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