| ESU9 For 07/27/2009 |
| Symbol | R1 | R2 | Pivot | S1 | S2 | |
| ESU9 | 983.67 | 989.58 | 973.08 | 967.17 | 956.58 | |
The indexes, then, are composites of groups of stocks and may be weighted by the capitalization of the stock in the composite, depending upon the index your are trading. A index futures contract is a derivative, not a direct investment. With all the talk of the horrors of derivative, many are shocked to learn the futures contracts are, in fact, a form of derivative.
But staying on top of the changes and momentum shifts often becomes overwhelming, especially if you’re watching a large number of symbols and open positions, like me. One free tool that I utilize to help me keep on top of my portfolio is called Trend Analysis, from the team that runs MarketClub. Trend Analysis is a daily email analysis tool that gives me insight into exactly what my portfolio is doing.
People don’t look much at supply and demand these days, and they talk about it even less, but it is good ol’ supply and demand that determines the price of all material in a capitalist society. Oil is no exception, and demand has been off for quite some time, hence, the unusually large amount of surplus in our current supply. To combat this, several oil company economists have issued a few reports that indicate the supply is not nearly as large as is being reported, but my gut instinct is to not trust oil company economists.
Stocks run into resistance (supply) because those traders that bought too late and saw the price go down now want to get out at break even so they sell. Stocks find support (demand) because those traders that missed the move up now have a second chance to get in so they buy.
I think before anyone embarks upon serious study of trading, then trying to make a living at trading, he/she ought consider the style of trading that best fits their personality. Unfortunately, the term “trader” means a lot of things and encompasses a wide range of trading styles and methodologies. My personal style of trading reflects my personality, I like immediate gratification and results, so I am a scalper.
So what is a scalper?
Most scalpers, especially the scalpers who trade the eminis, seek to exploit the natural rhythm of the market and carve out small gains on each trade. My goal is often 12 ticks, though that can change depending upon the mood of the market and an indicator I used (and have written a post about) called the Average True Range. My trades seldom last more than 10 or 15 minutes and I exit. I never carry positions overnight. My account is trade free at the end of the trading session, or at least, the period of time I am trading.
I scalp because it suits my personality. I like the fast paced action and the lack of dependence on intermediate term prognostications on the direction of the market. Some scalpers, seek to exploit the big/ask disparities in the market, though that is never my goal. Scalpers need to implement strict money management guidelines in their trading, and never risk more than 5% of their capital on a given trade. There are a host of traits scalpers use, and those traits even vary from scalp trader to scalp trader. The important thing to remember in scalping is that I am looking for very short term moves in the market to exploit, and I do not attempt to predict any overall direction of the market as a whole. I am interested in certain moves in very specific contracts. The market as a whole does not interest me and, generally speaking, I don’t pay much attention to overall market conditions. I trade the chart I am looking at, not the news, not the economy, just the chart before me.
Swing traders are a different matter, though.
Swing traders are really fundamental traders who hold their positions longer than a single day. Most fundamentalists are actually swing traders since changes in corporate fundamentals generally require several days or even weeks to produce a price movement sufficient enough for the trader to claim a reasonable profit. The important difference between a swing trader and a scalper are basic: A swing trader has a notion or idea which way the market is going to move, or which way an individual stock is going to move, and invests based upon his belief. Swing traders usually identify a specific characteristic or event in the market and trade based upon this theory. I should point out that though many swing traders are interested in market and stock fundamentals, there is also a field of swing trading that invest based solely on technical trading. Oscillators, Gann lines, Dow theory….there are scads of theories that swing trader may implement to ascertain the timing and direction of the trades they choose to execute.
Technical Traders, Fundamental Traders and Efficient Market Traders.
There is scant space in this post to cover the myriad of styles these three titles cover. I should also point out that there is often very little agreement upon methodology by the three trading camps. Each lays claim to correctness, though I incorporate parts of all three trading styles into my personal trading style. I will devote some posts in the future to contrasting the mindset of each of these trading theories.
The point here is a basic one, a trader ought to decide who and what he is and what style he will implement in his trading activities. This decision is usually gained through extensive reading and trading experience. There are some great books written on each of these trading styles, and all traders out to consider spending some time reading about the great theorists of trading and the style and rationale they employed to reach the conclusions they write about.
Some suggested reading would include:
Dr. Burton Malkiel, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street” (efficient market theory)
Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, “Security Analysis” (value investing, fundamental investing)
Benjamin Graham, “The Intelligent Investor” (value investing, fundamental investing)
John Murphy, “Technical Analysis of Financial Markets” (technical trading)
J. Welles Wilder, “New Strategies in Technical Analysis” (technical trading)
Martin Pring, “Introduction to Technical Analysis” (technical trading)
Dr. Bill Williams, “Trading Chaos” (chaos and fractal theory)
Benoit Mendalbrot “The Misbehavior of Markets”
All of these fine books will provide you with a great theoretical background to begin your journey as a trader. I have dog eared copies of each of the books, and often refer back to them to refresh my own knowledge base.
So read, trade, experiment…then find the style of trading with which you can succeed. As always, best of luck trading.