Posts tagged ‘economic data’

Some Random Thoughts for Week Starting August 9, 2010

By , 8 August, 2010, No Comment

We ought to have an interesting week as the market continues to worry about the economy, despite robust earnings from a number of major corporations. Walt Disney, Cisco, and J. C. Penney will all be reporting earnings this week.

Of course, the real center of attention will be on the Fed meeting this week. Investors will be paying close attention to what the Fed has to say, which is amusing to me because they have been saying the exact same thing for quite some time now and are not expected to change the tenor of their ongoing advice. Just the same, countless investors will be glued to their television sets as the usual suspects spew nearly identical blather of Fed Speak for the masses to decipher for some hidden meaning.

In short, you can count on the interest rates remaining the same, with the chairman explaining he expects rates to stay the same until the end of the year. The Fed will be also engaging in quantitative easing, which has become the Fed Speak term for the past year. Translated, it means they want more money in the economy so people will buy stuff and banks will make loans. Unfortunately, banks have been reluctant to participate in the quantitative easing program as they are more concerned with profit margins than ever.

The futures markets have been interesting of late, and there has been interesting moves nearly every day of the past week. I have to admit that predicting the market moves as become a nearly impossible task as traders seem skittish and prone to react to the smallest of reports or rumors. All in all, it makes for some very interesting trading, though you need to be careful not to over commit to any position.

Hewlett-Packard ought to dominate the news tomorrow as their recently departed CEO resigned over several allegations, including a little hanky-panky he is one should not have been involved in. There have been a number of articles on the business pages outlining which direction Hewlett-Packard will take in the coming years regarding its business model. Most of this blather is just that, blather.

Of course, there has been plenty of talk about the employment reports, or more aptly, the unemployment reports. Corporations have been unwilling to add personnel as they fret over the future of the US economy and consumer spending. Most economists don’t expect the employment picture to improve in the near term. This leaves the Fed in a bit of quandary, as it is necessary for employment to improve in the economy move out of near recession levels.

Related Blogs

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 24 December, 2009, No Comment
ESH0
For 12/24/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESH0 1119.92 1124.33 1115.58 1111.17 1106.83

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Most of the CME Markets close at noon today for the Christmas Break, expect trading this morning to be light as many traders take the entire day off.

Jobless Claims
[Report][djStar]8:30 AM ET

NYSE Early Close – 1:00 ET

SIFMA Rec. Early Close 2:00 ET

Money Supply
[Bullet4:30 PM ET

Relevant Consensus Analysis

Durable Goods Orders
Released on 12/24/2009 8:30:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Orders – M/M change -0.6 % 0.5 % -1.0 % to 1.5 % 0.2 %
New Orders – Yr/Yr Change -11.9 % -7.8 %
Ex-transportation – M/M -1.3 % 2.0 %
Ex-transportation – Yr/Yr -11.3 % -6.9 %

Highlights
Boeing orders slipped in November but the rest of durables orders look good. New orders for durable goods in November rebounded 0.2 percent after a 0.6 percent decline in October. The boost in November came in below the consensus forecast for a 0.5 percent increase. Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders posted a 2.0 percent gain, following a 0.7 percent drop in October. The weakness in transportation was a huge drop in civilian aircraft orders.

The November rebound in new orders was broad-based outside of transportation. Sizeable gains were seen in communication equipment, up 4.0 percent, computers & electronics, up 3.7 percent; machinery, up 3.5 percent; and electrical equipment, up 3.2 percent. Also posting gains were primary metals and fabricated metals.

Transportation fell 5.5 percent after slipping 0.2 percent in October. Within transportation, nondefense aircraft dropped 32.6 percent in November; defense aircraft fell 3.2 percent; and motor vehicles slipped 0.2 percent.

The outlook for capital goods spending is improving at the core level-although it may be foreign spending more than domestic investment. However, headline new orders for nondefense capital goods fell 1.9 percent in November after an increase of 0.8 percent the previous month. The weakness was in the volatile aircraft component. Excluding aircraft, new orders for nondefense capital goods rebounded 2.9 percent after a 2.0 percent dip in October. These numbers reflect orders from both foreign and U.S. businesses.

Year-on-year, overall new orders for durable goods improved to minus 7.8 percent in November from minus 11.7 percent the month before. Excluding transportation, new durables orders increased to minus 6.9 percent from down 10.5 percent in October.

Overall, today’s durables report shows manufacturing still on a gradual uptrend. Growth in this sector is leading the economy but at a moderate pace.

Equities might be disappointed in the shortfall from expectation other than jobless claims fell more sharply than projected. Equities will likely rise on that report. However, Treasury yields were marginally lower on the two releases.

Jobless Claims
Released on 12/24/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk12/19, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims – Level 480 K 470 K 450 K to 475 K 452 K

Highlights
The brightest spot on the economic calendar continues to be initial jobless claims which fell a very substantial 28,000 in the Dec. 19 week to 452,000 — a dip that the Labor Department describes as a part of “long-term trend” of improvement. The four-week average continues to come down, now at 465,250 for a 2,750 decrease. Continuing claims also continue to come down, 127,000 lower in the Dec. 12 week to 5.076 million. Trends for both initial and continuing claims show sizable improvement from November in what will raise talk of a possible gain for December payrolls.

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Numbers, Manipulation and the Commerce Department

By , 22 December, 2009, No Comment

Some days it is just plain hard not to laugh at the ridiculous manipulation of numbers the Commerce Department spews forth.  So you can imagine my astonishment this morning when GDP numbers were revised downward from the 2.8% growth rate reported last month, which had been revised downward from the original report of 3.5%.  We have finally settled on a mundane 2.2% annual GDP, since this is the final revision.  On a positive note, the current revision is still the highest GDP since the third quarter of 2007.

The talking point on government economic reports is always consistent, as we typically trumpet exceptional numbers on initial economic reports then quietly revise downward in following months.  The Commerce Department would say the numbers are revised as more information is gathered and a clearer picture of the economy emerges, and this is indeed a cogent argument.  The job of estimated the US GDP is a mammoth undertaking.   But that is not the problem, it has been a long time since I have seen numbers revised upward as oppose to downward.  Simple probability would suggest that they would make revisions both to the upside and downside as more information becomes available.

I suppose it isn’t politically correct to question the Commerce Departments veracity, but initial numbers released by the Department have to be treated with a grain of salt, as few people put much confidence in the bright picture often portrayed by the numbers.   This practice is nothing new and did not start under the Obama Administration, it’s been going on for years, and has reduced the Commerce Departments credibility significantly.  The market has simply learned to shrug off the glowing reports issued and continue trading with what the market offers to be true through independent pricing models and reports issued by individual corporations.

What ever happened to the maxim to “err on the conservative side?”  Even MSNBC, the bastion of spinning horrible news into “not quite as bad as you think” news has taken to shrugging off statistical surprises and recommends, from time to time, to wait for the revisions to give us a clearer picture.   Oddly enough, it is my opinion that the general public has a pretty good idea what is going on in the economy.

I was at Wal-Mart yesterday and happen to know the manager pretty well, and questioned him how Christmas season sales were going and he smiled and rattled off a stream of positive numbers over last year.  I didn’t need to ask, really, the throngs of people in Wal-Mart indicate a change in spending.   On the other hand, I questioned the local Macy’s manager about Christmas sales and he stared at his shoes and mumbled incoherent jabber about a late surge he expected to bring the numbers up to par from last year.  The logic is simple:   Wal-Mart is cheaper than Macy’s and people are spending less this year.  I do’t need the Commerce Department to tell me that fact, either.  I can see and feel it.

As always, I am thankful I am scalper and don’t have to depend upon government prognostication to support myself.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 22 December, 2009, No Comment
ESH0
For 12/22/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESH0 1115.50 1122.75 1106.00 1098.75 1089.25

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

GDP
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET
Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET

C

4-Week Bill Auction
[Bullet11:30 AM ET

Consensus Reports

GDP
Released on 12/22/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR 2.8 % 2.7 % 2.5 % to 2.9 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % to 0.5 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the second estimate for the third quarter growth was revised downward to an annualized 2.8 percent from the initial estimate of 3.5 percent. The third quarter increase, however, appears to have ended the recession which faded with a 0.7 percent dip in the second quarter. With the third estimate for the third quarter, the components facing potentially notable revisions are inventories and net exports. Turning to inflation, the GDPI price index was nudged down to a 0.5 percent annualized pace for the third quarter from the initial estimate of 0.8 percent.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 20 December, 2009, No Comment

ESZ9
For 12/21/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1107.10 1111.80 1102.80 1098.10 1093.80

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

6-Month Bill Auction
[Bullet11:30 AM ET

Highlights
After the boost to equities at Friday’s close from quadruple witching, will the gains reverse as trading returns to normal?

ES Emini Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 9 December, 2009, No Comment

Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the November 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement. Continuing claims for the November 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 6 December, 2009, No Comment

As would be expected, much better-than-expected numbers for the November employment situation sent equities up sharply early in the day on Friday. But by close, stocks had come down significantly as many traders simply worried that equities have gotten too far ahead of economic conditions. Also, the dollar jumped on the release of the jobs report and weighed on materials and energy sectors. Still, for the day and week, most indexes posted moderate to sizeable gains.

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