Posts tagged ‘inveswtment commentary’

Paul Krugman’s Comments

By , 12 July, 2009, No Comment

In his blog today, Krugman says:

“Like Brad, I’m not too happy with the policy justifications we’re getting from the administration. It’s perfectly clear that the stimulus was too small; I think they know that too. But they’ve made a political judgment that (a) they can’t push another round through and (b) the thing to do right now is defend the policy they already have.”

I am an avid reader of Krugman, and even though I tend toward Republican leanings, I have found the Republican fiscal policy of late, well, let’s just say it is misguided.  Of course, the drum beatings from the likes of Hannity and Limbaugh (the de-facto leader of the Republican part, God help us) are that Obama is spending the country into oblivion.

And we have spent a lot of money, not much of which has really made its way into the economy yet.  I am not sure who to blame for that, but the general consensus is that the second half of this year this money should trickle into the economy.  Even Nouriel Roubini, who is not known for his cheery prognostications, was more upbeat in his Friday postings that usual.  So the Republican party finds itself in a difficult position here, trying to use the old methods (think: tax cuts) to remedy a situation that is entirely different from other situations where this strategy worked.  And who really benefits from tax cuts?  Ummm…I think you know the answer.

Krugman stated in the early discussions on the Obama stimulus package that he felt the amount of the package was too small to do the job, and he has consistently maintained that position.  Now he laments that the political environment is not conducive to upping the ante on future stimulus packages and we find ourselves mired in a longer recession than we care to endure.

Sometimes economics is just plain at odds with society, and sometimes economics is just plain “in left field with no mitt.”   But on this one, I think I will side with Krugman, he had it right from the start.

Signs the Armageddon is near

By , 12 July, 2009, 1 Comment

Wells Fargo is suing itself?

“… I could not resist wondering about Wells Fargo Bank NA, and why it filed a civil complaint against itself in a mortgage foreclosure case in Hillsborough County, Fla.

In this particular case, Wells Fargo holds the first and second mortgages on a condominium, according to Sarasota, Fla., attorney Dan McKillop, who represents the condo owner.

As holder of the first, Wells Fargo is suing all other lien holders, including the holder of the second, which is itself.

… court documents clearly label “Wells Fargo Bank NA” as the plaintiff and “Wells Fargo Bank NA” as a defendant.

Wells Fargo hired Florida Default Law Group., P.L., of Tampa, Fla., to file the lawsuit against itself.

And then Wells Fargo hired another Tampa law firm — Kass, Shuler, Solomon, Spector, Foyle & Singer P.A. — to defend itself against its own lawsuit, according to court documents.

Wells Fargo’s defense lawyers even filed an answer to their client’s own complaint.

“Defendant admits that it is the owner and holder of a mortgage encumbering the subject real property,” the answer reads. “All other allegations of the complaint are denied.”

Yes, we are doomed.

Where in the Hell are we in this ongoing mess?

By , 10 June, 2009, No Comment

I was listening to Dr. Roubini on a PBS clip last night and he believes we have averted the possibility of a depression. Hmmm….I decided that was some good news, I think.

As of late, though, I have felt manipulated by the powers-that-be (and you can decide just who the powers-that-be actually might be) as we have had this tremendous run-up in stock prices while unemployment has continued to march straight upward. Good Grief…the government’s official number is 9.45%, and some economists are squabbling that the calculation is artificially low, and if we used a non-manipulated formula for unemployment, say the one we used in 1982, the number would be much higher. And then there is the foreclosure issue…

The rate of foreclosures has also marched steadily upward, which would indicate that people do not have the money to pay for their homes. Or perhaps, they do not find it financially expedient to pay their homes and are diverting their funds to savings or some other investment vehicle, which I find highly unlikely.

The credit markets are broken, with the government guaranteeing everything from car manufacturer loans to bank accounts, to….well, you name it.

My point is simple: The stock market is disconnected from the economic health of the country. Granted, the VIX has stopped oscillating like a seismograph needle in 8.4 earthquake, but the markets, of late, would have you believing that everything is honky-dory.

I don’t feel honky-dory. No, the footing on the path I am walking feels loose and very sketchy.

With the amount of money we have pumped into the economy, a great deal of the looming disaster has been put off, but has it been put off forever, or have just put it off for another ten years?

In the past, countries that have inflated their M1 and pumped the kind of stimulus money into their economies have had a nasty dust-up with inflation, and that worries me. Where are we headed with inflation? I have this niggling that there is inflation out there waiting…at least it ought to be waiting.

No, none of the current economic data makes sense to me, there are too many asymmetric variables to account for to let me breath deep and comfortably.

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