Posts tagged ‘pivot’

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 22 December, 2009, No Comment
ESH0
For 12/22/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESH0 1115.50 1122.75 1106.00 1098.75 1089.25

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

GDP
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET
Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET

C

4-Week Bill Auction
[Bullet11:30 AM ET

Consensus Reports

GDP
Released on 12/22/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09
Prior Consensus Consensus Range
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR 2.8 % 2.7 % 2.5 % to 2.9 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % to 0.5 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the second estimate for the third quarter growth was revised downward to an annualized 2.8 percent from the initial estimate of 3.5 percent. The third quarter increase, however, appears to have ended the recession which faded with a 0.7 percent dip in the second quarter. With the third estimate for the third quarter, the components facing potentially notable revisions are inventories and net exports. Turning to inflation, the GDPI price index was nudged down to a 0.5 percent annualized pace for the third quarter from the initial estimate of 0.8 percent.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 20 December, 2009, No Comment

ESZ9
For 12/21/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1107.10 1111.80 1102.80 1098.10 1093.80

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

6-Month Bill Auction
[Bullet11:30 AM ET

Highlights
After the boost to equities at Friday’s close from quadruple witching, will the gains reverse as trading returns to normal?

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 16 December, 2009, No Comment

Tomorrow should be an interesting day, as I am sure the market will be keeping an eye on the jobless numbers. Along with the others indicators to be announced, especially if we get some mixed signals, the day might turn out a bit choppy.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 16 December, 2009, No Comment
ESZ9
For 12/16/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1114.58 1120.42 1109.92 1104.08 1099.42

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Housing Starts
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET
Current Account
[Report][Bullet8:30 AM ET

Consensus Analysis

MBA Purchase Applications
Released on 12/16/2009 7:00:00 AM For wk12/11, 2009
Prior Actual
Purchase Index – W/W Change 4.0 % -0.1 %

Highlights
MBA’s purchase index slipped 0.1 percent in the Dec. 11 week with the refinance index up 0.9 percent. Mortgage rates remain extremely low, at 4.92 percent for 30-year loans. Housing starts for November will be released at 8:30 ET this morning and are expected to show a gain following a drop in October.

Consumer Price Index
Released on 12/16/2009 8:30:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
CPI – M/M change 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.2 % to 0.6 % 0.4 %
CPI – Y/Y change -0.2 % 1.9 %
CPI less food & energy 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.0 %
CPI less food & energy – Y/Y change 1.7 % 1.7 %

Highlights
The consumer price report for November was calming on most financial markets despite the rise in the headline number. Both the headline and core numbers were much less inflationary than yesterday’s scary PPI numbers. Headline consumer price inflation jumped 0.4 percent in November after gaining 0.3 percent the month before. The November headline matched the consensus forecast. Core CPI inflation-in contrast with yesterday’s core PPI run up-eased to 0.0 percent (no change) after a 0.2 percent increase in October. The consensus had called for a 0.1 percent rise.

The headline number was boosted mainly by a 4.1 percent surge in energy costs after a 1.5 percent gain in October. Gasoline was up 6.4 percent, following a 1.6 percent gain the month before. Food price inflation was soft in November with a 0.1 percent rise-the same as in October.

Within the core, declines in shelter indexes offset increases in costs for new and used motor vehicles, medical care, airline fares, and tobacco. Shelter costs declined 0.2 percent in the latest month, led by a 1.5 percent drop in lodging away from home. Owners’ equivalent rent dipped 0.1 percent. Hotels-including resorts-continued to engage in heavy discounting. High unemployment is keeping rent soft in general.

Year-on-year, headline inflation increased to plus 1.9 percent (seasonally adjusted) from minus 0.2 percent in October. The core rate was unchanged in November at up 1.7 percent. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline number was up 1.8 percent in November while the core was up 1.7 percent.

Inflation is still high at the headline level but it is not as severe as earlier indicated by the PPI for November. A flat reading for the CPI core suggests that a sluggish economy is keeping underlying inflation tame for now.

Housing Starts
Released on 12/16/2009 8:30:00 AM For November, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Starts – Level – SAAR 0.529 M 0.575 M 0.540 M to 0.600 M 0.574 M
Permits – Level – SAAR 0.552 M 0.584 M

Highlights
Housing starts looked good for November but most of the gain was largely a comeback and then some in multifamily starts-a volatile component. The single-family component posted only a partial rebound. Construction companies picked up the pace of groundbreaking for new homes as housing starts in November rebounded 8.9 percent, following a revised 10.1 percent plummet in October. The November pace of 0.574 million units annualized came in right at the market forecast for 0.575 million units and was down 12.4 percent on a year-ago basis. The latest comeback was led by a 67.3 percent rebound in multifamily starts, following a sharp 29.5 percent plunge in October. Meanwhile the single-family component edged up 2.1 percent after a 7.1 percent fall the month before.

By region, the November rebound in starts was led by 16.4 percent rebound in the Northeast with gains also seen in the South, up 12.3 percent; Midwest, up 3.0 percent; and West, up 1.9 percent.

Homebuilders are modestly optimistic about ramping up the pace of construction as housing permits in November rebounded 6.0 percent after falling 4.2 percent in October. October’s pace of 0.552 million units annualized was down 24.3 percent on a year-ago basis.

Today’s housing starts report is good but should be seen in the context of October’s weak numbers. The two months together indicate that housing is in a slow recovery. The bad news is that the recovery is slow. But the good news is that the housing construction recovery is slow-anything more robust at this point would not be sustainable.

FOMC Meeting Announcement
Released on 12/16/2009 2:15:00 PM
Prior Consensus
Federal Funds Rate – Target Level 0 to 0.25 % 0 to 0.25 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The FOMC announcement for the December 15-16 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. However, traders will be watching to see if the “extended period” language is qualified with any additional wording regarding the future path of the fed funds rate. Traders also will look for updates on the Fed’s view of the recovery and on the Fed’s plan for unwinding balance sheet expansion.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 14 December, 2009, No Comment

The producer price index increased 0.3 percent in October after dropping 0.6 percent the month before. The rise in the latest month was led a 1.6 percent boost in energy and a 1.6 percent gain also for food. But at the core level, the PPI rate unexpectedly dropped 0.6 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip in September.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Comments

By , 13 December, 2009, No Comment

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ESZ9
For 12/14/2009
How To Use
Symbol R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2
ESZ9 1111.92 1115.83 1106.58 1102.67 1097.33

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

With the lack of big announcements today, it should be a fairly quiet trading day, at least from a news standpoint.

ES Emini Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 9 December, 2009, No Comment

Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the November 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement. Continuing claims for the November 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent.

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ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By , 6 December, 2009, No Comment

As would be expected, much better-than-expected numbers for the November employment situation sent equities up sharply early in the day on Friday. But by close, stocks had come down significantly as many traders simply worried that equities have gotten too far ahead of economic conditions. Also, the dollar jumped on the release of the jobs report and weighed on materials and energy sectors. Still, for the day and week, most indexes posted moderate to sizeable gains.

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