Posts tagged ‘pivot’

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 3 December, 2009, No Comment

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ESZ9
For 12/04/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1110.83	1123.67	1104.17	1091.33	1084.67

Fed and Agency Announcements

Barack Obama Speaks

Chain Store Sales [Report]

Monster Employment Index [Report]

Jobless Claims
[Report]

8:30 AM ET

Productivity and Costs
[Report]

8:30 AM ET

Ben Bernanke Speaks
10:00 AM ET

ISM Non-Mfg Index
[Report]

10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
[Report]

10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

3-Yr Note Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

10-Yr Note Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Announcement
[Report]

11:00 AM ET

Eric Rosengren Speaks
12:30 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
[Report]

4:30 PM ET

Pertinent Consensus Analysis

Jobless Claims

Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For wk11/28, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
New Claims – Level	466 K	485 K	471 K to 495 K	457 K
4-week Moving Average – Level	496.5 K			481.25 K

Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the Nov. 28 week to 457,000, extending a run of impressive improvement that points squarely at improvement for total payrolls (prior week revised 4,000 lower). The four-week week average is lagging despite falling 14,250 in the week to 481,250. Continuing claims for the Nov. 21 week rose slightly to 5.465 million with the insured-workers unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, well down from a summer peak of 5.2 percent. The slight gain in continuing claims hardly puts a dent into 10 prior weeks of improvement, improvement reflecting new hiring but also, and likely to a large degree, the expiration of benefits. Those receiving extended benefits rose nearly 60,000 to just under 600,000 in data for the Nov. 14 week. Markets moved higher but only briefly in reaction to the report, one that will firm expectations for solid improvement in tomorrow’s November employment report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 35,000 in the November 21 week to 466,000. With the four-week average also breaking below 500,000, down 16,500 to 496,500, the latest numbers indicate that companies have reduced the pace of printing pink slips. This may be the early beginnings of recovery in the labor market. But most economists believe that the return to normalcy will be extremely slow. Continuing claims also fell in the latest week, down 190,000 to 5.423 million in data for the November 14 week, but the change also reflects the expiration of benefits.

Productivity and Costs

Released on 12/3/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm productivity – Q/Q change – SAAR	9.5 %	8.5 %	8.5 % to 8.8 %	8.1 %
Unit labor costs – Q/Q change – SAAR	-5.2 %	-4.2 %	-4.5 % to -4.0 %	-2.5 %

Highlights
Productivity in the second quarter was revised down with the Labor Department’s second estimate for the quarter. Third quarter productivity was revised to an annualized 8.1 percent surge from the initial estimate of a 9.5 percent boost. The market consensus had expected a revision to an 8.5 percent increase. Unit labor costs were revised up somewhat (less negative) to an annualized decline of 2.5 percent, compared to the original estimate of a 5.2 percent fall. The consensus estimate was for a 4.2 percent decline.

The downward revision to productivity was primarily due to a downward revision to growth of third quarter output in the nonfarm business sector-to 2.9 percent annualized from the initial 4.0 percent. Unit labor costs were revised up based on the lower growth in output and higher compensation estimates. Compensation growth was revised up to an annualized 5.4 percent from the initial third quarter number of 3.8 percent growth. Hours worked were little revised.

Year-on-year, productivity rose to up 4.0 percent in the third quarter from 1.9 percent in the second quarter. Year-ago unit labor costs fell to minus 1.4 percent from up 0.3 percent in the second quarter.

Today’s revisions indicated that labor costs are not as weak as previously believed but they are still subdued. The new numbers might have had a negative impact on equities, but the big news is the lower-than-expected jobless claims which boosted equity futures and bond yields.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Nonfarm productivity in the third quarter surged 9.5 percent annualized, following a revised 6.9 percent boost in the second quarter. This was the largest gain in productivity since the third quarter of 2003, when it rose 9.7 percent. In tandem, unit labor costs dropped an annualized 5.2 percent after declining a revised 6.1 percent in the second quarter. The latest spike in productivity reflected both higher output and fewer hours worked. Looking ahead, we are likely to see a downward revision to third quarter productivity and upward revision to unit labor costs based on the second estimate for GDP growth in the same period. Real GDP was revised down to 2.8 percent from the advance estimate of 3.5 percent. The output component of productivity and unit labor costs is based on much of the same source data as GDP.

Monster Employment Index

Released on 12/3/2009 For November, 2009

	Prior	Actual
Monster Employment Index	120	119

Highlights
The Monster employment index edged down 1 point to 119 in November. Government and healthcare extended several months of weakness. Retail has also been weak. But on the strong side is transportation & warehousing, a group that offers a reading on supply-chain congestion and that may be signaling gains ahead for general economic activity. November’s big U.S. jobs report comes out tomorrow morning with expectations looking for solid improvement.

Chain Store Sales

Highlights
November’s chain-store reports are net positive for the economic outlook. November started off slow, hurt by warm weather, which cut demand for seasonal goods, and by consumer anticipation ahead of Black Friday discounts. The Thanksgiving weekend proved to be very positive for many chains — momentum that points to month-to-month improvement this month. Chain stores report their results in year-on-year terms, and a look back at last year shows that November had a higher base than October (remember October and September were hit by the credit panic). So even though sales rates were a bit weaker, November’s ex-auto ex-gas reading looks to be about flat. Auto sales, based on Tuesday’s unit-sale data, look to be strong while sales at gas stations will get a boost from higher prices and favorable seasonal adjustments. All in all, the retail outlook is favorable in what may be confirmation of improvement underway in the jobs market.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 2 December, 2009, No Comment

MBA’s purchase application index rose 4.1 percent in the holiday shortened Nov. 27 week. The refinance index rose 1.7 percent. Low rates are a big plus for mortgage demand with 30-year loans averaging 4.79 percent, down 3 basis points for the lowest rate since May. Indications on the housing market are picking up steam.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 30 November, 2009, No Comment

ESZ9
For 12/01/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1100.33	1105.92	1092.42	1086.83	1078.92

Fed and Fed Agency Announcement

Motor Vehicle Sales [Report]

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

7:45 AM ET

Redbook

8:55 AM ET

ISM Mfg Index
[Report]

10:00 AM ET

Construction Spending
[Report]

10:00 AM ET

Pending Home Sales Index
[djStar]

10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction

11:30 AM ET

Charles Plosser Speaks
12:20 PM ET

In depth Consensus Reports

Motor Vehicle Sales

Released on 12/1/2009 For Nov, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Domestic Vehicle Sales	7.9 M	7.75 M	7.50 M to 8.00 M

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales of domestic light motor vehicles in October rebounded 17.2 percent to 7.8 million units as sales returned to normal-at least for the current recovery. Combined sales of domestics and imports in rose to a 10.5 million annualized unit rate from 9.2 million in September. Now that the monthly swings from cash-for-clunkers have been wrung out from the data, November will stand out as a possibly true measure of the strength of demand for motor vehicles and of the viability of the consumer sector to a large degree

ISM Mfg Index

Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For November, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
ISM Mfg Index – Level	55.7	55.0	53.8 to 56.0

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey jumped more than 3 points in October to 55.7. This is the strongest for this index in more than three years. Showing the most improvement of the composite’s components was the production index which advanced over 7-1/2 points to 63.3. But we may see some leveling off in the composite index in November as the new orders index eased from 60.8 in September to 58.5 in October, but still remained well in positive territory. Price increases were steady in the month, showing little change at 65.0 compared to 63.5 in September.

Construction Spending

Released on 12/1/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Construction Spending – M/M change	0.8 %	-0.4 %	-1.5 % to 0.3 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Construction spending was sharply higher than expected for September but a large downward revision to August was essentially offsetting. Overall construction spending advanced 0.8 percent in September after slipping a downwardly revised 0.1 percent in August. The decrease in August was now significantly lower than the original estimate of a 0.8 percent gain. The boost in spending in September was led by a 3.8 percent surge in private residential outlays. Private nonresidential declined 1.8 percent and public outlays decreased 0.1 percent in the latest month.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Anouncements-Commentary

By trader7757, 29 November, 2009, No Comment

ESZ9
For 11/30/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1102.83	1116.17	1084.92	1071.58	1053.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Chicago PMI
[Report]

9:45 AM ET

4-Week Bill Announcement

11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction

11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction

11:30 AM ET

Farm Prices

3:00 PM ET

Chicago PMI

Released on 11/30/2009 9:45:00 AM For November, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Business Barometer Index – Level	54.2	53.0	50.8 to 55.5

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Chicago PMI jumped more than 8 points in October to 54.2. For the month, production surged nearly 17 points. We may see further improvement in November as the new orders index jumped more than 15 points.

Definition
The Institute of Supply Management – Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey is conducted by Kingsbury International, LTD. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms are both surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 27 November, 2009, No Comment

Well, Black Friday is upon us and the department stores are likely to be swamped with crazed shoppers looking for the latest gadget. Thankfully, I will be home day trading.

ESZ9
For 11/26/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1109.25	1109.50	1109.00	1108.75	1108.50

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

NYSE Early Close – 1:00 ET

Weekly Bill Settlement

SIFMA Rec. Early Close 2:00 ET

Fed Balance Sheet

4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM

Not much going on today, and note that that the NYSE closes at 1:00.

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 25 November, 2009, No Comment

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index for early November fell back a very steep 4.6 points to a very weak 66.0. Weakness was split between current conditions and the outlook. The retreat in confidence was tied to the still contracting jobs market.

ES Emini Daytrading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 24 November, 2009, No Comment

ESZ9
For 11/24/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1130.42	1158.08	1083.83	1056.17	1009.58

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
[Report]

7:45 AM ET

GDP

8:30 AM ET

Corporate Profits

8:30 AM ET

Redbook

8:55 AM ET

S&P Case-Shiller HPI
[djStar]

9:00 AM ET

Consumer Confidence
[Report]

10:00 AM ET

FHFA House Price Index

10:00 AM ET

State Street Investor Confidence Index

10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction

11:30 AM ET

5-Yr Note Auction

1:00 PM ET

FOMC Minutes

2:00 PM ET

GDP

Released on 11/24/2009 8:30:00 AM For Q3:09

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR	3.5 %	2.8 %	2.5 % to 3.4 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR	0.8 %	0.8 %	0.8 % to 0.8 %

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for the third quarter in the advance estimate came in stronger than expected with a 3.5 percent gain, following a 0.7 percent dip in the prior quarter. The third quarter boost was the first positive GDP number since a 1.5 percent increase for the second quarter of 2008. Cash for clunkers did add substantially to third quarter growth as motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Inflation is still subdued as the GDP price index edged up 0.8 percent, following no change in the second quarter. Looking ahead, more recent monthly numbers indicate a downward revision to third quarter growth—including negatives from monthly international trade and business inventories

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Released on 11/24/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk11/21, 2009

	Prior	Actual
Store Sales – W/W change	-0.1 %	0 %
Store Sales – Y/Y	2.4 %	3.3 %

Highlights
Easy year-over-year comparisons look to make for strong mid-single-digit gains for November same-store sales, according to ICSC-Goldman. The week-to-week pace in the Nov. 21 week was unchanged but not the year-on-year pace which rose nearly 1 full percentage point to plus 3.3 percent for the best reading in more than two years. The report sees this rate increasing in the Nov. 30 week, predicting strong sales on what it calls “Bargain” Friday and also strong sales on the following Saturday. But year-on-year comparisons are not what the financial markets move on. It’s month-on-month that counts. Redbook, up at 8:55 ET, does offer a November-to-October measure.

Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

By trader7757, 23 November, 2009, No Comment

ESZ9
For 11/20/2009

How To Use

Symbol		R1	R2	Pivot	S1	S2
ESZ9		1094.83	1095.17	1094.42	1094.08	1093.67

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Existing Home Sales
[Report]

10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Announcement

11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction

11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction

11:30 AM ET

2-Yr Note Auction

1:00 PM ET

Existing Home Sales

Released on 11/23/2009 10:00:00 AM For October, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Existing Home Sales – Level – SAAR	5.57 M	5.700 M	5.290 M to 5.900 M

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Existing home sales in September spiked 9.4 percent to a 5.57 million annual rate. Existing home sales have been on a healthy uptrend in recent months, showing gains in five of the last six months. Recent numbers have been boosted by the clock ticking down on tax credits for first time home buyers with closing required by November. Tax credits have been extended and expanded but we are likely to see an easing in sales as there are not as many in the eligibility pool for these tax credits as in earlier months. And rising unemployment is weighing on other potential buyers.

The Fractal Futures Trader

Posts tagged ‘pivot’

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

Fed and Agency Announcements

Pertinent Consensus Analysis

Jobless Claims

Productivity and Costs

Monster Employment Index

Chain Store Sales

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

Fed and Fed Agency Announcement

In depth Consensus Reports

Motor Vehicle Sales

ISM Mfg Index

Construction Spending

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Anouncements-Commentary

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Chicago PMI

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

ES Emini Day Trading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

ES Emini Daytrading: Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

GDP

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

Daily Pivot-Fed Announcements-Commentary

Fed and Fed Agency Announcements

Existing Home Sales

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